After a rare week-over-week dip in prediction market notional volume, trading surged to a new weekend high after a monumental Week 10 in college football and a busy NFL Week 9.
- Kalshi’s two-day volume surpassed $10.6 billion.
- Seven NFL games drew at least $30 million in trades on Sunday.
- Miami-Notre Dame became the fifth $100-million volume game in college football.
Eleven of the 12 operators tracked by Aldrin Research combined to report more than $14 billion in volume from Saturday and Sunday, a 52% period-over-period increase and over $1 billion more than the previous weekend.
Kalshi accounted for 74.5% of the trading, reaching $10.69 billion over the weekend, while Polymarket was still reporting partial volume at the time of publish.
Individual sports trading was up 8.9% at Kalshi, while the operator’s $8.02 billion in combo plays spiked 16% from the previous weekend.
Saturday's overall notional volume increased more than 11% at Kalshi (to $5.33 billion from $4.79 billion) from Week 9 of the college football season, while the popular exchange accounted for 75% of Sunday’s trading and eclipsed $5.3 billion for the second consecutive day.
While Polymarket’s U.S. division continued as the most-used trading exchange behind Kalshi, DraftKings Predictions grew its market share to almost 5% and increased trading by more than $100 million week over week during the two days (to $744 million from $610.2 million).
Sunday’s best
The reporting operators combined for more than $7.1 billion in volume during a busy NFL Sunday. With just two teams on a bye, Kalshi’s trading improved from $457 million on the previous Sunday to $477 million in Week 9.
The operator’s NBA volume spiked ($92.1 million) nearly 74% from the previous Sunday ($53.3 million), but NFL games still accounted for the day's five most-traded contests, led by the Tampa Bay-Chicago primetime showdown at $128 million.
Seven NFL games surpassed $30 million in trading at Kalshi, including Cincinnati-Atlanta in the early game, which reached $41 million. Green Bay-New England, a key game in the NFL’s late window, drew more than $47 million in volume at Kalshi. Dallas-Indianapolis and Las Vegas-San Francisco both went over $35 million each.
L.A. Lakers-Detroit led individual NBA game trading with more than $30 million in volume, while soccer’s Atletico Madrid-Barcelona drew nearly $28 million at Kalshi, more than the NFL’s N.Y. Jets-Kansas City matchup ($27.5 million).
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Saturday’s epic showdown
In a week that featured seven games between top-25 teams, college football drew more than $820 million in volume on Saturday, a day which also saw more than $5.1 billion traded on combos.
The Miami-Notre Dame matchup became just the fifth Saturday college football game this season to reach $100 million in volume. The epic showdown between the former top-ranked Hurricanes and a top-15 Irish squad drew $105.5 million from 10 of the 12 operators. Kalshi accounted for 56% of the game’s volume, with Polymarket U.S. second at 13.7%.
Alabama-LSU was Week 10’s second-biggest draw with $68.7 million, while West Virginia-Texas Tech and Texas-Missouri also went over $50 million each. Five other college football games, including BYU-Utah and Georgia-Ole Miss, saw more than $30 million traded.
