Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith's latest fantastic performance has drastically increased his chances to win the Heisman Trophy, according to the latest Kalshi prediction market data.
- Jeremiah Smith favored to win Heisman after Week 5 performance.
- Smith separates himself from Darian Mensah at prediction markets.
- The Ohio State WR has nearly 50% chance to win Heisman Trophy.
Smith isn’t showing signs of slowing down anytime soon. In a big road matchup against No. 14-ranked Iowa, the junior wide receiver registered 11 catches for 206 yards and two touchdowns as Ohio State cruised to a 31-14 victory.
Julian Sayin connected with Smith for a 12-yard touchdown just before halftime to put Ohio State up 17-6. The Ohio State quarterback then found Smith for a 57-yard touchdown midway through the third quarter to increase that lead to 24-6.
It was only fitting that he hit the Heisman pose after the long score.
THE RECORD-BREAKER (AND HEISMAN POSE) FOR JEREMIAH SMITH. https://t.co/axl4odkRRI
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 3, 2026
Smith is now Ohio State's all-time leader in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and 100-plus-yard receiving games.
University of Miami quarterback Darian Mensah was favored to win the Heisman Trophy for the first few weeks of the season, but that all changed on Sept. 27, and Smith hasn’t looked back.
Heading into play on Sept. 26, Mensah had an 18.7% chance of winning the Heisman Trophy with Smith at 13.3%. However, that was before the Ohio State star caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-19 win over Illinois. He had just three touchdowns up to that point in the season, so it was a huge game for Smith.
After that, Smith jumped up to 24.4% at Kalshi, and that gap widened this weekend. His chances rose to 36.9% in the early hours on Oct. 3, and then up to 47.7% after his record-setting performance.
The contenders
Mensah is now down to 11% after an underwhelming performance against Clemson in which he threw just one touchdown with one more on the ground in a 41-13 win. He had peaked at 26.2% on Sept. 19 after a strong showing against Wake Forest.
Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell is on his tail now at 9% after the sophomore starter threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns, while running for a score as well, in a 56-23 demolition of No. 16 Mississippi State.
Nonetheless, Smith's in the midst of running away with things with a home game against the lowly Maryland Terrapins up next on Oct. 10.
