The Georgia Bulldogs are the new favorite to win the college football national championship, according to the latest Kalshi prediction market data.
Georgia surged past Ohio State into first place after a 24-point victory at home against Vanderbilt on Saturday afternoon.
- This is Georgia’s first time atop the leaderboard since the season began.
- Ohio State is a close second, despite having a loss on its resume.
- Florida dropped to 1% after an embarrassing loss on Saturday.
Georgia is no stranger to success under Kirby Smart. The Dawgs won national titles in 2021 and 2022 and made the College Football Playoff (CFP) each of the last two years.
While the reigning SEC champions are “only” the second-ranked team in the country, they are the team of choice in Kalshi’s prediction markets. The Bulldogs' 18% chance is the highest on the board and up 3% from where they were last week.
The setup and the score. Dawgs back out front. 📺: SEC Network https://t.co/SfeqcxSTUU
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) October 3, 2026
Ohio State (17%), the previous market leader, and Heisman favorite Jeremiah Smith Jr. are just behind. That is significant, since the Buckeyes are the only team among the top contenders with a loss on their resume.
Texas (13%), the team that beat Ohio State and the top-ranked program in the country, sits in third. The Longhorns dropped 2% over the last seven days while not playing this weekend and preparing for an upcoming stretch that includes five ranked opponents in six weeks.
Notre Dame (12%) held its spot in the top five after surviving a Saturday challenge from North Carolina. Quarterback CJ Carr scored all five of his team’s touchdowns in a 37-26 win to help keep the Irish undefeated, although it did not help them improve in likelihood of winning the national title.
Miami (11%) is the final team with a double-digit probability of becoming the next CFP champion. The Hurricanes stomped Clemson 41-13, but their chance of winning the championship also did not change.
Strong movement in the chase pack
There was significant movement just outside of the top five, and just like with Georgia, it involved a familiar face.
Alabama set the bar higher than any team in modern college football history during Nick Saban’s dynastic era. Crimson Tide fans were forced to come to grips with the reality of suffering losses during the years immediately following his retirement, but after a couple of seasons, Alabama appears to be truly “back.”
🏠📞 @Dijon_leeJr 📺: ABC https://t.co/i2Tn5m7viC
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) October 3, 2026
Kalshi prediction-market traders flocked to Alabama after they crushed Mississippi State 56-23 scoring their third-most points against a ranked opponent in program history. The undefeated Tide now have an 8% chance of winning the national championship, up 4% from last weekend.
Defending champion Indiana is level with Bama at 8%, unchanged from last weekend. The Hoosiers beat Rutgers 47-15 on Saturday and are two weeks away from hosting Ohio State.
Florida suffered a near-opposite fate to Alabama. One week after they gained significant steam in national championship and Heisman markets by destroying Ole Miss at home, the Gators were a total no-show on the road against Missouri. Their 45-17 loss sent them plummeting from 5% down to 1%.
The only other programs with a greater than 1% chance of winning the national championship, according to prediction markets, are LSU (5%), Oregon (4%), Ole Miss (3%), and Texas Tech (2%).
