Quarterbacks Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin are in a dead heat atop the board, but Diego Pavia is still climbing in Heisman Trophy odds.
The college football regular season is over, meaning that the Heisman race will be determined by the players’ performances up to this point.
Key Takeaways
- Pavia did enough to come within reach of the leaders during last weekend’s win against Tennessee.
- Mendoza has been the leader for a month.
- BetMGM’s biggest liability, Jeremiah Smith Jr., likely will not receive an invitation to the Heisman ceremony.
| bet365 | BetMGM | Caesars | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza | +110 | +125 | +115 | +105 |
| Julian Sayin | +150 | +130 | +140 | +155 |
| Diego Pavia | +400 | +330 | +450 | +400 |
| Jeremiyah Love | +1600 | +1400 | +1000 | +2000 |
| Jeremiah Smith Jr. | +20000 | +17500 | +15000 | +20000 |
| Jacob Rodriguez | +25000 | +25000 | +20000 | +25000 |
| Gunner Stockton | +25000 | +25000 | +20000 | +30000 |
| Ty Simpson | +30000 | +40000 | +30000 | +30000 |
Indiana’s Mendoza was a minus-money leader last weekend, only the second week all season that a player received odds shorter than +100.
The Hoosiers’ QB only went 8-15 for 117 yards and two touchdowns in last weekend’s 56-3 win against Purdue, causing him to lose his grip on the race and slip back to the challengers. He still has 6.2% of tickets (fifth) and 8.7% of the money (third) backing him, according to BetMGM insights shared with Covers.
Ohio State’s Sayin made good on his opportunity, going 19-26 for 233 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception in a rivalry win on the road against No. 15 Michigan. He’s third in tickets (7%) and fourth in handle (7.4%).
Vanderbilt’s underdog QB, Diego Pavia, closed a significant amount of ground on the leaders, going from about +600 to as low as +330 at BetMGM, a growth of about 9% implied probability. That’s after he went for 433 total yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in a dominant 45-24 victory against No. 19 Tennessee.
Pavia is still only 11th in bets (3.7%) and his share of the pot (4%).
Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, who ran 14 times for 66 yards and a touchdown against Stanford last week, appears to be the fourth and final player who will receive an invitation to the Heisman ceremony. Bettors are in love with Love, giving him the second-most tickets (7.7%) to go with the seventh-most money (5.5%).
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Huge Heisman upset approaching?
Assuming one of the four players listed above wins the trophy, there will be a sizable upset in pre-season Heisman odds.
Sayin had the shortest odds entering the season of the four at +2000, or a 4.8% implied chance. Love (+5000), Mendoza (+5500), and Pavia (+12500) were even larger underdogs.
The public’s favorite in Heisman odds is still in the race, although winning the award seems improbable.
That player is Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith Jr., who leads all players with 8.4% of tickets and is sixth in handle (5.7%). Smith Jr. had back-to-back games with 40 yards and has season numbers of 72 catches for 942 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez had become a popular dark horse pick for his stat-stuffing performances, although he only had four tackles and managed to throw an interception last week.
SEC QBs Ty Simpson and Gunner Stockton were also involved in the Heisman race at different points in the season, although both appear to have completely fallen out of it.
The best outcome?
According to BetMGM, any of the top three Heisman odds leaders winning the award would be the preferred outcome.
It could get hairy for sportsbooks if Love ends up having his name called. The Irish’s bruiser is the second-biggest liability at BetMGM, sandwiched between Smith Jr. and Simpson.
Another person of potential significance is Oregon QB Dante Moore, who has the second-highest handle (11%). However, BetMGM has him at an improbable +50000 to win the Heisman.
