Jeremiyah Love and Diego Pavia have firmly joined the race to win college football’s highest honor, although Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza still leads Heisman Trophy odds.
Love and Pavia both made remarkable strides last weekend, effectively tying Ohio State’s Julian Sayin for second in odds.
Key takeaways
- Mendoza has about a 54% implied chance to win the Heisman.
- Love closed from around +4000 last week to +400 and second in odds.
- Pavia had a career-high in passing yards on Saturday to climb to +600.
| bet365 | BetMGM | Caesars | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza | -120 | -105 | -115 | -125 |
| Jeremiyah Love | +400 | +375 | +400 | +450 |
| Julian Sayin | +450 | +400 | +550 | +450 |
| Diego Pavia | +600 | +600 | +700 | +500 |
| Marcel Reed | +1100 | +1300 | +1000 | +1300 |
| Gunner Stockton | +4000 | +4000 | +3000 | +5000 |
| Jacob Rodriguez | +15000 | +15000 | +10000 | +15000 |
The majority of teams only have one game remaining on their regular-season schedule, meaning that it’s time for the top candidates to give their closing arguments as to why they deserve to be named the best player in college football.
Mendoza retained the top spot with a greater than 50% implied probability to win the Heisman despite having a bye last weekend. He has 2,641 yards, 35 total touchdowns, five interceptions, and ranks fourth in QBR for the season.
Notre Dame’s Love roared back from being around +4000 at top sportsbooks just a week ago, now finding himself from +375 to +450. That comes on the back of him carrying the ball just eight times for 171 yards and two touchdowns in a 70-7 win over Syracuse.
Sayin, around +200 a week ago, dropped slightly after he only picked up 157 yards and two touchdowns in a blowout win against Rutgers. That’s two straight weeks he failed to achieve 200 yards passing, both times in dominant victories.
Vanderbilt’s Pavia, like Love, also closed a huge gap in odds, shortening from the +1200 to +2200 range last week to his current odds of around +600. That came after he threw for a career-high 484 yards and had six total touchdowns and one interception in a one-sided win against Kentucky.
The only other player still within range of the leaders is Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed. The sophomore dropped from around +500 to +1200 after he went for only 120 yards and three touchdowns in a 48-0 win against Samford.
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Will a defensive player win the Heisman?
There are only two other players consistently receiving Heisman odds of +15000 or below.
One of them, Georgia QB Gunner Stockton, still has a huge opportunity ahead of him with a matchup against No. 16 Georgia Tech waiting to close out the year. Stockton was around +2500 a week ago but dropped after only having 196 yards and an interception in a 35-3 win against Charlotte.
The other player is one of the most divisive figures in college football, but in a positive way: Jacob Rodriguez.
The Texas Tech linebacker has 97 tackles, seven forced fumbles, six pass deflections, four interceptions, a sack, a defensive touchdown, and a rushing touchdown for the fifth-ranked team in the country. His supporters argue that Travis Hunter’s Heisman win a year ago opened the door to a defensive player winning the award (again), while critics say that he doesn’t have the same impact as a quarterback or a running back.
While Rodriguez has become one of the best stories in the sport, he’s only +10000 to +15000 at leading online sportsbooks.
The final domino
The final week of the college football season is far from a formality - many of the players still alive in the Heisman odds race face stiff competition to close their seasons.
Mendoza and Indiana will visit Purdue; Love and Notre Dame will travel west to play Stanford; Sayin and Ohio State will visit No. 18 Michigan; Pavia and Vanderbilt will meet No. 20 Tennessee; Reed and Texas A&M will partake in an in-state showdown with No. 17 Texas; Stockton and Georgia will play No. 16 Georgia Tech; and Rodriguez and Texas Tech will travel to play West Virginia.
