The Georgia Bulldogs took another step ahead in college football national championship prediction markets after beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.
UGA peaked at 21% the morning after the SEC showdown, which ended 20-17 in favor of the visitors.
- Georgia is the only team to cross the 20% threshold this entire season.
- Texas dropped 7% after a loss to unranked Oklahoma.
- Indiana’s outlook did not change despite a near-loss to unranked Nebraska.
Georgia had climbed into the national championship odds lead for the first time after destroying Vanderbilt on Oct. 3. Their 21% likelihood at Kalshi is up from the 18% it had both coming out of last weekend and entering Saturday’s contest against the undefeated Crimson Tide.
The Bulldogs, who won national championships in 2021 and 2022, sent a message to the college football world with their win on Saturday. Although they entered as road underdogs against an Alabama team they hadn’t beaten in Bryant-Denny Stadium since 2007, Kirby Smart’s crew walked out with a three-point victory to improve to 6-0, making them the only undefeated team in the SEC.
The game ended in controversy because of critical refereeing decisions. UGA safety KJ Bolden appeared to commit an uncalled pass interference on Bama wideout Rico Scott in the end zone with 3:28 remaining in the fourth quarter and the Crimson Tide down three points. Alabama punted two plays later and never got the ball back.
Now that we’ve had time to digest it… Was this as blatant a PI as it looked in real time? https://t.co/GWeTauFRLX
— Covers.com (@Covers) October 11, 2026
Ohio State is still second at prediction markets at 17% following a blowout win over Maryland, 45-16. Jeremiah Smith Jr. furthered his Heisman campaign with four receptions for 93 yards and two touchdowns, while quarterback Julian Sayin went 13-21 for 242 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception.
JEREMIAH SMITH ONE HANDED LIKE IT'S NOTHING! 📺 Big Ten Network https://t.co/xu1qYNgpFY
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) October 10, 2026
Notre Dame held down its third-place spot and improved two percentage points to 14%. That came on the heels of a 58-7 smackdown of Stanford.
Miami (12%) is the final team with a double-digit national championship probability. Although the Hurricanes were not in action one week after they beat Clemson by 28 points, they jumped one percentage point thanks to favorable results around the country.
Who else is alive?
The biggest loser of the college football weekend was undoubtedly Texas, the former top-ranked team in the country.
The Longhorns plummeted from a 13% to just a 6% chance of winning the national championship after they fell to unranked Oklahoma at a neutral site in nearby Dallas. Arch Manning went 19-31 for 260 yards, three TDs, and two INTs, while John Mateer engineered a game-winning drive that ended with a Tate Sandell walk-off 47-yard field goal.
Alabama was also forced to take a step back after suffering its first defeat of the season to Georgia. Kalshi traders moved them from an 11% chance to an 8% chance of winning the upcoming national title in the aftermath.
Indiana was left rooted at 8% after surviving its first scare of the season against Nebraska. A spirited effort by the underdogs, who completely stifled IU’s running game, fell apart in the final moments as the favorites rallied from a 17-6 fourth-quarter deficit for a 20-17 victory.
Ole Miss (3%) and Texas Tech (2%) are the only other teams with national championship probabilities greater than 1%. The Rebels demolished Vanderbilt in their weekend battle, 52-17, while Texas Tech was on a bye.
