Four native American tribes joined a growing minority of native groups to launch prediction markets on Wednesday.
The four tribes are routing their prediction market offerings through Kalshi, America’s leading prediction operator, which will handle the execution of the trades.
- The first tribal group to offer prediction markets launched in September.
- Two California tribes recently won a court decision to shut down event contracts on their land.
- Gambling has long been a primary source of economic stimulus for native groups.
Native American groups have enjoyed formal legal recognition for gaming since the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act was approved in 1988. But just like sportsbooks, they have lost out on potential revenue amid the rise of prediction platforms that insist that their event contracts do not represent a form of gambling.
Wednesday’s launch of four native-backed prediction apps, as reported by CNN, represented a significant development in the industry. Although prediction market rights are not federally protected like tribal gambling rights, there is no framework that prevents the tribes from stepping over the line between predicting and wagering.
“At its core, this is about tribal sovereignty and economic self-determination,” said Kletsel Dehe Wintun Nation administrator Eric Wright. “Other tribes are entitled to disagree with our decision, but they don’t have veto power over our economic future.”
The four tribes that partnered with Kalshi are spread across California and Oklahoma. Tribal leaders for these groups believe that the new prediction market offerings could provide an alternative source to casinos, which have often been the primary source of economic stimulus, but are being threatened by the rise of prediction platforms.
Tribal prediction market platforms operate through a tribal-owned business or entity. The customer-facing product is owned by the tribes, but the event contracts exist in Kalshi’s marketplace through its Commodity Futures Trading Commission-approved (CFTC) licenses.
Most arrangements involving separate trading hubs and exchanges include a revenue-sharing agreement, where the exchange — in this case, Kalshi — takes a percentage of the earnings.
Only so much money
The embrace of prediction markets is still relatively limited among native groups.
Hundreds of tribes have complained that companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket are illegally offering gambling products on their land. Controversy is primarily rooted in sports event contracts, which have also prompted legal pushback from state gaming regulators across the country.
“In Indian country, we’re still fighting for basic infrastructure,” said Rebecca George, head of the Washington Indian Gaming Association. “Kalshi’s co-owners just became billionaires. And we know this is coming off of the backs of the tribes. So, it’s hard not to take personally.”
There are 246 tribal entities who operate 545 gaming locations in 29 states, according to the National Indian Gaming Commission. Those locations produced a record $46.2 billion in revenue during FY2025, a $2.3 billion (5.3%) year-over-year increase.
That said, 56% of the revenue came from just 9% of locations. Additionally, prediction markets exploded in popularity within the last year; Kalshi’s notional trading volume increased more than 23 times from $2.6 billion in September 2025 to $60.7 billion this past month.
CNN reported that the near-20 tribal leaders whom it interviewed did not provide data showing revenue drops this year, but said they believed there was a limited number of “gaming dollars” to be shared between the industries.
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Tribal disagreement over prediction markets
The different attitudes between tribes regarding prediction markets is a microcosm of the entire country.
Federal judges have reached conflicting decisions on the state-versus-federal authority when it comes to regulating platforms, sometimes opening the door for states to apply enforcement, sometimes shutting down event contracts entirely, and sometimes deferring regulation to the CFTC.
Two California tribes last month won a verdict in a federal appeals court that prevented Kalshi and Robinhood from offering sports contracts on their land. But just two days later, the Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana became the first native group to launch prediction markets, powered by Kalshi.
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig met with leaders of various organizations representing tribal interests in Washington, D.C. in September. The primary sentiment expressed by those groups was that sports event contracts represented a gambling product and should not be treated as a financial tool or product.
The CFTC maintained that prediction markets were not a form of gambling, and therefore did not require the Commission to negotiate with tribes.
