The San Francisco 49ers have been cruising through the NFC in the Super Bowl odds, but now Kyle Shanahan's team has to deal with the scrappy knee-biters from up north.
The NFL odds have the Detroit Lions as heavy 7.5-point underdogs in this one, and yet, that type of doubt is what’s fuelled Dan Campbell’s team all season. The question is whether or not the defense will be able to roar loud enough to slow down 49ers superstar Christian McCaffrey.
You can see how I’m betting on the Christian McCaffrey odds as we dive into the Championship Sunday odds.
For more NFL picks, check out our Lions vs. 49ers picks and predictions and our spotlight on Brock Purdy odds.
Christian McCaffrey NFC Championship prop picks
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Christian McCaffrey NFC Championship prop pick
Under 86.5 rushing yards (-110)
Since being traded to the San Francisco 49ers, Christian McCaffrey has taken Shanahan’s offense up a notch and helped turn it into one of the most efficient and threatening in the league.
CMC led the league in rushing by nearly 300 yards, finishing with 1,459, and added another 564 receiving yards. McCaffrey might be the only player in the league more valuable than his Pro Bowl quarterback.
Despite how impressive Brock Purdy has been in his second season, it’s hard to point at anyone other than McCaffrey as the key reason Shanahan’s offense finished first in EPA per play and first in EPA per rush. With that being said, the Lions pose a bigger threat to McCaffrey than any defense he’s faced this season.
While Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has come under fire at times this season for his unit giving up big plays, its issues have revolved around its struggles to stop the pass, not the run.
The Lions were 25th in EPA per pass on defense this year, giving up 247.4 passing yards per game, sixth most in the NFL. However, they brought their best against the run, ranking fourth in EPA per rush and holding opponents to only 88.8 rushing yards per game, second-fewest in the league.
Teams averaged 3.7 yards per carry against this front, the third lowest in the NFL, and that success has continued into the playoffs. In wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Lions allowed an average of just 78.5 rushing yards per game.
In the regular season, the Lions allowed more than 86.5 rushing yards to just one ball carrier and it wasn’t even a running back. Justin Fields ran for 104 yards against the Lions in Week 11.
Although McCaffrey is at a different level than all of the backs Detroit has dealt with this season, in games against defenses that have ranked either in the Top 10 of EPA per play or rush this season, he’s been slowed.
McCaffrey faced four teams that fall into at least one of those two categories — Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, and Tampa Bay — and eclipsed 80 yards against only the Ravens. And while Baltimore finished second in EPA per play on defense, the Ravens ranked 16th in EPA per rush.
Against those four defenses, the former Heisman runner-up averaged 68.7 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush, more than a full yard less per carry than his season average of 5.4.
With how good the Lions have been against the run, Shanahan will likely want to go after this secondary. Starting cornerback Cameron Sutton allowed more receiving yards than any player this season (888), and three other defensive backs gave up at least 500.
McCaffrey may be better served as a decoy in the play-action game and a weapon in the passing attack to take advantage of the Lions' linebacker trio in coverage.
Prop: Under 86.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Christian McCaffrey NFC Championship same-game parlay
Under 86.5 rushing yards
Over 36.5 receiving yards
Anytime touchdown
What makes McCaffrey so unstoppable is that he’s not only the best pure runner in the NFL, but he’s also one of the best pass-catching backs in NFL history. While his usage in the passing game has gone down slightly in San Francisco (he was overused as a receiver with Carolina out of necessity), he’s still heavily involved.
Among running backs, only Breece Hall finished with more receiving yards than McCaffrey, and the former first-round pick averaged 35.3 receiving yards per game. CMC has just one game where he had less than three targets this season and went for more than 36.5 receiving yards six times in 16 games.
This Lions defense allowed an average of 30.1 receiving yards to running backs this season and can struggle when a pass catcher as talented as McCaffrey gets a mismatch with its linebackers. Alex Anzalone has given up 546 receiving yards this season, Jack Campbell has allowed a 128.2 passer rating, and quarterbacks are completing 74.3% of passes when targeting Derrick Barnes.
So while the Lions can slow McCaffrey on the ground, to completely shut him down is a near-impossible task, and even more so when it comes to scoring touchdowns.
McCaffrey tied for the league lead with 21 total touchdowns this season and scored at least one in 13 of his 16 regular season games. It looks like that pace isn’t slowing down in the playoffs either after he found the end zone twice against Green Bay in the divisional round.
It helps that the Lions have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns this season, tied for ninth most in the NFL, and gave up at least one rushing touchdown in 10 of 17 regular season games.
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