The 148th running of the Preakness Stakes — the middle jewel of the Triple Crown — is set for Saturday at Baltimore’s Pimlico racecourse.
A field of eight will contest the Preakness, led by Kentucky Derby winner and 8-5 morning-line favorite Mage, who will break from post No. 3.
Mage is the only horse returning from the “Run for the Roses,” so does that make his job in the Preakness easier or harder?
This race promises some solid wagering opportunities, so let’s dig into the Preakness Stakes odds and determine how bettors should play the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta. And don't forget to check out my Preakness Stakes picks and predictions for even more insights.
Preakness Stakes trifecta, superfecta, and exacta picks
Why make a trifecta, superfecta, or exacta pick?
It’s a great feeling to be able to pick the winner of the Preakness Stakes, but those settling for simple win betting are leaving the chance for a big payday behind.
For example, the average $2 trifecta payout over the last 10 renewals of the Preakness is a healthy $1,799.14. Even if you factor out the 2019 rendition won by War of Will, in which favored Improbable ran out of the money and longshot Everfast ran second, the average payout is still a strong $954.64.
Hitting the Preakness Stakes can result in a nice payday. To learn more about how to bet on the Preakness and betting trifectas, superfectas, and exactas, check out my comprehensive guide to pari-mutuel betting.
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Preakness Stakes Exacta pick
The exacta requires the bettor to select the Top 2 finishers of a race in exact order. The minimum wager at Pimlico is $1. Bettors can also “box” an exacta, meaning the two (or more) selected horses on a ticket can finish in any order, albeit at an increased cost.
No. 1 National Treasure, the 4-1 second-choice on the morning line following the scratch of First Mission, is my Preakness Stakes win pick, and a key horse I’ll be using in my exacta wagers.
National Treasure was a gate-to-wire winner on debut going 6.5 furlongs before placing second in Grade I American Pharoah in his just second lifetime start. The Bob Baffert trainee was a respectable third in the Grade I Breeders' Cup Juvenile to conclude his two-year-old season. However, National Treasure's three-year-old debut left plenty to be desired, as he ran third in the Grade III Sham Stakes at 3-5.
It would be three months before National Treasure showed up at the races again due to a minor foot injury, and he returned to run fourth in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby off that unscheduled vacation.
National Treasure will wear blinkers on Saturday — he previously raced with them on debut and in the Breeders' Cup. They should keep him focused and sharpen his speed from the rail, which should work to his benefit following the scratch of the speedy First Mission. As long as he breaks cleanly, he and jockey John Velazquez should be able to choose whether to set the pace or stalk No. 4 Coffeewithchris. Barring any tactical surprises, National Treasure should be on or near a relaxed pace, increasing his likelihood of holding off the late closers in the stretch.
In addition to National Treasure, I’ll be defending myself with Mage on top.
Mage was a solid second in Gulfstream’s Grade I Florida Derby prior to his breakthrough in Louisville. It was the third time in four lifetime starts that he hit the exacta.
Mage’s ability to get the distance ahead of the Kentucky Derby was a concern, but he showed that he could handle 10 furlongs, let alone 9.5. The issue he may face cutting back in the Preakness could be his typical slow getaway from the gate.
He was off about a length slow in the Run for the Roses, which actually may have prevented him from incurring some bumps at the start. There is no guarantee that Javier Castellano will be able to work out another great trip at Pimlico this Saturday on the Gustavo Delgado trainee to make up for a slow beginning. He's also unlikely to get a fast pace to close into this Saturday like he did in Louisville.
Mage could also be adversely impacted by the demanding two-week turnaround, which is the main reason why I think he’ll have to settle for second.
Finally, as a saver, I’ll throw in No. 6 Perform (15-1) underneath my Top 2 picks.
Perform was last seen earning a lifetime-best speed figure in the Federico Tesio Stakes — Maryland’s own prep for the Preakness — at Laurel Park. He was bottled up in traffic for most of the stretch run before finally finding room and posting the victory.
Perform has improved as he’s aged and added distance, and he could be sitting on a new career-best effort on Saturday. Trainer Shug McGaughey has never won the Preakness, but has taken both the Kentucky Derby (2013) and the Belmont Stakes (1989) in his Hall-of-Fame career.
Jockey Feargal Lynch is not a household name but is a solid local rider who was aboard for his Tesio Stakes win. His presence aboard Perform could help bettors secure some betting value on this son of Good Magic.
$20 exacta pick:
- To win: No. 1 National Treasure
- Second place: No. 3 Mage
$10 exacta pick:
- To win: No. 3 Mage
- Second place: No. 1 National Treasure
$5 exacta pick:
- To win: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
- Second place: No. 6 Perform
Total = $40
Preakness Stakes Trifecta pick
The trifecta tasks the bettor with determining the first three finishers of a race in exact order. The payoff can be much higher than the exacta, but both the ticket cost and the risk factor increase significantly, even with a minimum wager amount of 50 cents.
I’ll obviously lean on National Treasure and Mage quite a bit in the trifecta wagers. In fact, they’ll be the only horses I’ll use on top. Perform will factor prominently in the lower rungs of my trifecta tickets, but I also want to throw in some savers for third; No. 5 Red Route One (10-1), and No. 7 Blazing Sevens (6-1).
Red Route One might be a cut below the best runners in the three-year-old crop, as demonstrated by his sixth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, but the deep closer is left off the ticket at your own peril. He’s hit the exacta in three of four starts in 2023, including a victory in a minor stake at Oaklawn Park last month.
Blazing Sevens bypassed the Kentucky Derby following a third-place effort in the Blue Grass Stakes. The Top 2 from that race — Tapit Trice and Verifying — did not run well at Churchill Downs, but Blazing Sevens should be evaluated on his own merit. He frequently runs competitive speed figures, owns a Grade I win, and has Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons.
$8 trifecta pick:
To win: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
Second place: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
Third place: No. 6 Perform
$3 trifecta pick:
To win: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
Second place: No. 6 Perform
Third place: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
$3 trifecta pick:
To win: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
Second place: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
Third place: No. 5 Red Route One, No. 7 Blazing Sevens
Total = $34
Preakness Stakes Superfecta pick
The superfecta is even tougher to nail down than the trifecta, as it requires the bettor to pick the first four finishers of a race in exact order. Of course, the potential payday can be tremendous. The minimum wager amount is just 10 cents, making it somewhat easier to get involved.
There aren’t nearly as many combinations to cover in the Preakness as there were in the Kentucky Derby, so bettors can afford to get a little creative and spread a bit more.
I’ll remain focused on National Treasure and Mage on top, with Perform as a key horse underneath.
$2 superfecta pick:
To win: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
Second place: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
Third place: No. 6 Perform
Fourth place: No. 5 Red Route One, No. 7 Blazing Sevens
$1 superfecta pick:
To win: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
Second place: No. 6 Perform
Third place: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
Fourth place: No. 5 Red Route One, No. 7 Blazing Sevens
$1 superfecta pick:
To win: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
Second place: No. 1 National Treasure, No. 3 Mage
Third place: No. 5 Red Route One, No. 7 Blazing Sevens
Fourth place: No. 5 Red Route One, No. 6 Perform, No. 7 Blazing Sevens
Total = $20
