You can now trade on almost any outcome you can think of at prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, from the banal like, "What countries will Trump visit this year?" to the sublime like, "Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?"
But if you're looking to buy or sell shares in 2026 Kentucky Derby markets... you're out of luck.
Read on to find out why prediction markets aren't taking action on the "Run for the Roses" — at least not yet.
Kentucky Derby at prediction markets
There are currently no contracts on offer for the Kentucky Derby at any major prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket. As Churchill Downs Inc. CEO Bill Carstanjen suggests, his company operates “under a different legal paradigm than other sports offerings in the United States,” which explains why prediction markets are afraid to dip their toe in the water when it comes to horse racing.
Carstanjen cites the Interstate Horseracing Act (IHA), the federal law governing wagering on horse racing, which he says grants CDI intellectual property and wagering rights for its product.
“In essence, you need the approval of the content producer if you want to take wagering or conduct wagering activity on our races or other pari-mutuel horse races,” Carstanjen said last year. “So I think that's an impediment to that activity happening on that platform. But the platform, in and of itself, it's a subject of a lot of discussion in the country, and certainly we watch it. But it's not a risk or a particular concern for what we do with the Kentucky Derby and pari-mutuel wagering on horse racing.”
While Kalshi is federally regulated, the IHA states that “the States should have the primary responsibility for determining what forms of gambling may legally take place within their borders,” presenting a potentially thorny legal issue.
The Kentucky-based National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) recently issued a warning to prediction markets via a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), saying, “The Commission has authority under the [Commodity Exchange Act] to prohibit contracts that are contrary to the public interest. Event contracts based on horseracing outcomes that circumvent the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978 (the ‘IHA’) fall squarely within this category and are furthermore preempted by other federal laws.”
There is a possible path, in the future, for prediction markets to offer horse racing-related betting markets, but several specific entities would need to give their “consent” first, such as the host track.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby?
While prediction markets are not available yet for horse racing, our best Kentucky Derby betting sites, like FanDuel Racing, will offer wagering on the Kentucky Derby beginning at 9:00 a.m. ET on Friday, May 1. Renegade is the +400 betting favorite in the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds.
