Two top-level turf races with Breeders' Cup odds implications will take place this weekend as Keeneland hosts the Grade I, $1 million Coolmore Turf Mile on Saturday, while Woodbine features the Grade I, $750,000 Canadian International on Sunday.
Will Charlie Appleby and the Godolphin invaders complete another stakes sweep on this side of the pond, or will we see some upsets? Let's start finding out.
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Coolmore Turf Mile odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Keeneland Race 10
- Post time: 5:45 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Master of The Seas | 2-1 | +200 | +200 | -150 |
| 2 | Indestructible | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +2,000 |
| 3 | Stitched | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +2,000 |
| 4 | Set Piece | 5-1 | +500 | +500 | +1,200 |
| 5 | Up to the Mark | 5-2 | +250 | +250 | +400 |
| 6 | English Bee | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +5,000 |
| 7 | Atone | 10-1 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +1,600 |
| 8 | Harlan Estate | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +4,000 |
| 9 | Annapolis | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +800 |
Odds as of October 6, 2023.
No. 1 Master of The Seas (2-1, morning-line favorite) made light work of the Grade I Woodbine Mile field when last seen on September 16, and I expect a similar performance at Keeneland this Saturday. This son of Dubawi was a group stakes winner overseas and was even competitive in multiple Group I attempts.
Master of the Seas needed to swing seven-wide in the Woodbine Mile but drew off an easy winner under William Buick anyway. With Buick at Aqueduct to ride a different Godolphin charge on Saturday, James Doyle flies in for the call. These morning-line odds seem like a pipe dream, so the strategy will be to key this Charlie Appleby runner on top in exactas.
No. 5 Up to the Mark (5-2) hasn't raced since June after suffering a minor setback in training, but this Todd Pletcher trainee has turned into a turf monster and must be respected.
He's won four of his last five races on the lawn, all by open lengths, including the Grade I Turf Classic at Churchill and the Grade I Manhattan at Belmont. Since those races were over more ground, we know stamina won't be an issue for Up to the Mark in this spot, but his turn of foot could be impacted off the bench. Jose Ortiz takes over for brother Irad Ortiz Jr, who is also out of town.
No. 9 Annapolis (6-1) gives Pletcher another strong shot at picking up a check in the Coolmore Turf Mile, at the very least.
I'll draw a line through his no-show effort in the Grade III Mint Millions at the quirky Kentucky Downs oval when last seen. He's only missed the exacta one other time from 12 career starts, and that was in the 2022 Breeders' Cup Mile when he endured a nightmarish trip.
Best bet: $14 exacta 1/5, $6 exacta 1/9 ($20)
Canadian International odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Woodbine Race 9
- Post time: 5:39 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | British Royalty | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,500 |
| 2 | Dynadrive | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +1,600 |
| 3 | Palazzi | 4-1 | +400 | +400 | +700 |
| 4 | Nations Pride | EVEN | +100 | +100 | -125 |
| 5 | English Conqueror | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +1,200 |
| 6 | Starting Over | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,200 |
| 7 | Adhamo | 7-2 | +350 | +350 | +1,000 |
| 8 | Royal Champion | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +700 |
Odds as of October 6, 2023.
No. 4 Nations Pride (EVEN, morning-line favorite) returns to North America off a Group I win in Germany on July 30 under Buick, who retains the assignment on Sunday. He was a tough-luck second in the Grade I Belmont Derby in his first start on this side of the Atlantic before taking the Grade I Saratoga Derby and the Grade I Jockey Club Derby with authority.
Nations Pride will have the benefit of Lasix in the Canadian International, something he wasn't afforded stateside last year. This race looks like his to lose.
No. 3 Palazzi (4-1) is a runner on the rise with three straight victories, including a rallying score in the Grade III Singspiel Stakes over this course and distance. This is far from the strongest Grade I field ever assembled, so I'm not terribly concerned about the class hike on paper. A minor award for this Mark Casse runner should be in the cards.
No. 8 Royal Champion (6-1) is the other European entrant, and while his resume is far less imposing than that of the top choice, I can see him hitting the board here.
The son of Shamardal won a 10-furlong turf stake at the Royal Ascot meeting two-back, and was a respectable third behind a next-out winner in a Group II heat at York last time out.
Best bet: $14 exacta 4/3, $6 exacta 4/8 ($20)
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Road to the Breeders' Cup Classic Schedule
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| February Stakes* | February 19 | Tokyo Racecourse (Japan) | Lemon Pop |
| Kentucky Derby | May 6 | Churchill Downs | Mage |
| Preakness Stakes | May 20 | Pimlico | National Treasure |
| Belmont Stakes | June 10 | Belmont Park | Arcangelo |
| Metropolitan Handicap | June 10 | Belmont Park | Cody's Wish |
| Stephen Foster Stakes* | July 1 | Ellis Park | West Will Power |
| Haskell Stakes* | July 22 | Monmouth Park | Geaux Rocket Ride |
| Whitney Stakes* | August 5 | Saratoga | White Abarrio |
| Juddmonte International Stakes (turf)* | August 23 | York (UK) | Mostahdaf |
| Travers Stakes | August 26 | Saratoga | Arcangelo |
| Pacific Classic* | September 2 | Del Mar | Arabian Knight |
| Jockey Club Gold Cup* | September 2 | Saratoga | Bright Future |
| Pennsylvania Derby | September 23 | Parx | Saudi Crown |
| Awesome Again Stakes* | September 30 | Santa Anita Park | Slow Down Andy |
| Lukas Classic | September 30 | Churchill Downs | Clapton |
*denotes "Win & You're In" race for Breeders' Cup Classic
