Belmont Stakes betting: Popular picks and odds moves

Oct 16, 2020 |
Belmont Stakes betting: Popular picks and odds moves
The Belmont Stakes will have a different feel Saturday at Belmont Park. The race usually falls last in the Triple Crown series, and is usually 1 1/2 miles, but will instead be first and at 1 1/8 miles.
Photo By - USA Today Images
The Belmont Stakes will have a different feel Saturday at Belmont Park. The race usually falls last in the Triple Crown series, and is usually 1 1/2 miles, but will instead be first and at 1 1/8 miles.
Photo By - USA Today Images

Triple Crown betting got thrown for a loop, but it returns Saturday, albeit with the Belmont Stakes in the leadoff spot, rather than the Kentucky Derby. Belmont betting odds are on the board in fixed-odds format at several books, with pari-mutuel horse racing wagering to come later in the week.

Covers will update this action report with sharp bets and public play, up until post time at 5:42 p.m. ET Saturday.

Who is the favorite to win the Belmont Stakes?

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Tiz the Law sits as the solid -120 favorite at William Hill US books, with Tap It To Win the 4/1 second choice and Dr Post third at 9/1. "Most tickets are on the two favorites, really close between Tiz the Law and Tap It To Win," director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "The most money by far is on Tiz the Law, four times more than any other horse."

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: With parimutuel betting in play, TwinSpires.com director of marketing Ed DeRosa said favorite Tiz the Law is at even money, but that won't last. "Expect him to drop from there. He will be -120 or -140 at post time. Tap It To Win (4/1) is the clear second choice."

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: A few hours before post time, Tiz the Law continues to be the prohibitive favorite at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, sitting at -125. Paul Zilm, risk supervisor for Circa Sports, said Tiz the Law and Max Player (21/1) are taking money this morning. In addition, Zilm said almost all of the 11 matchup props at Circa are seeing good two-way action. Most notably: Farminton Road vs. Modernist, currently a -110 pick 'em. 

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: About 24 hours before post time, Tiz the Law remains a solid favorite in Belmont Stakes odds at Canadian online book Sports Interaction. After opening -120, Tiz the Law stretched to -145. However, Dr Post is seeing the most action and is now the +460 second choice, followed by Tap It To Win at +505 and Sole Volante at +630.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Ed DeRosa, director of marketing for TwinSpires.com, isn't working with a live market yet for the Belmont Stakes, though that could be in place by Friday afternoon. But he's an expert on horse racing odds, and his expectation is that Tiz the Law moves to a minus-money favorite by post time Saturday. Following Wednesday's post-position draw, Tiz the Law was made the 6/5 morning-line favorite (+120). "My read is that Tiz the Law will be less than evens," DeRosa said. "I'm thinking 4/5 or even 3/5." That converts to a favorite of -125 or -166, respectively.

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: A few hours after the post position draw, Belmont Stakes betting odds haven't shifted much at Circa Sports. Tiz the Law, who drew the eight post in a 10-horse field, remains a -135 favorite, followed by Sole Volante (+495). "Tiz the Law is still a prohibitive favorite for us," Circa risk supervisor Paul Zilm said. Tap It To Win, breaking from the first post, is getting attention this week, too, moving from 9/1 to +595. "As of right now, we're rooting against Tiz the Law and Tap It To Win. Any other scenario would be good for us."

Tiz the Law is now seeing more tickets on Yes in the Yes/No to-win prop market, as well, with odds of -135/+105. And Zilm said Circa added Yes/No props on Sole Volante (+495/-765), Tap It To Win (+595/-990) and Dr Post (+650/-1,075).

The Belmont Stakes favorite is Tiz the Law. And in fact, he's already the odds-on favorite. Circa Sports in Las Vegas opened Tiz the Law +195 on June 5, and the bay colt is now at -135. Sole Volante is the +430 second choice in the 2020 Belmont Stakes odds.

“It’s been all Tiz the Law money so far. A lot of interest,” Circa sportsbook operations manager Jeff Benson said, while noting that a couple of top horses skipping the Belmont contributed to the line move. “The line came down considerably on the news of Charlatan and Maxfield not running, and other horses skipping the Belmont to prep for the Kentucky Derby.”

The Kentucky Derby moved to September 5 on the amended Triple Crown schedule, followed by the Preakness on October 3.

Canadian online book Sports Interaction's line management team said action is light so far, but Tiz the Law (-130) and Dr Post (+655) are the most popular bets.

Belmont Stakes sharp bets

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: TwinSpires' DeRosa thinks that, just beyond the favorites, there might be one horse worth a ride in the Belmont Stakes. "Maybe Pneumatic is the wise-guy horse." At books offering fixed odds right now, Pneumatic can be had in the 15/1 range, the fifth choice in the 10-horse field.

Popular Belmont Stakes long-shot bets    

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: TwinSpires' DeRosa has the quote of the day on a long shot drawing what he sees as inexplicable action. "Jungle Runner is 21/1 and should be 210/1," DeRosa said.

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Sports Interaction's lines management team said a couple of the longer shots are drawing dollars for Saturday's race. "Jungle Runner is getting a few looks. It's a tempting number at 50/1. Keep an eye on Modernist at +2,400. Belmont is a track he is very familiar with. There's long-shot money coming in on the colt."

---

Most bettors are waiting until later in the week, or at least until after Wednesday’s post-position draw, to see how the odds adjust. So the longest shot seeing money so far isn’t actually that long a shot.

“We’ve seen a little bit of play on Tap It To Win, but that’s it so far,” Benson said of a horse listed as the 9/1 fourth choice.

What’s drawing more attention is Circa Sports’ Yes/No to-win market, particularly with a minus-money favorite. Bettors are fading Tiz the Law by betting No +105.

“Yes/No coincides with what we like to do in other markets, pricing a team to win or not win,” Benson said. “It’s obviously been well-received. This provides an avenue to take the field, against what will presumably be a sizable morning-line favorite.”

Who will win the 2020 Belmont Stakes?    

Horse Odds to win
Tiz the Law -135
Sole Volante +495
Tap It To Win +595
Dr Post +650
Pneumatic +1,700
Max Player +1,800
Modernist +2,000
Farmington Road +2,000
Fore Left +4,500
Jungle Runner +5,000

Odds courtesy Circa Sports

 

Where can I bet Horse Racing Odds?

Many online books and casinos offer bets on horse racing odds and props. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live.

Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo