U.S. Open 2024 Picks & Odds: Predicting How the Favorites Will Finish

The U.S. Open is often referred to as golf’s toughest test and this year should be no exception as the championship returns to Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina. 

It just may be a little less tough for Scottie Scheffler. The World No. 1 is starting to enter Tiger Woods level of greatness and the U.S. Open odds are backing that up. Scheffler is the shortest favorite to win a major since Tiger in 2009. So, while there are other favorites to look at in my U.S. Open predictions, for now, this is the Scottie Show.

Scottie Scheffler odds analysis and best bet 

What a few months it’s been for Scottie Scheffler. The World No. 1 ranked golfer won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship back-to-back. He went back-to-back again a month later, this time, winning his second Masters and following that up with a victory at the RBC Heritage.

Then he became a father, got arrested during the PGA Championship (where he still finished T8), and won the Memorial Tournament for the first time. That means his first U.S. Open victory could be on the horizon; he's now as short as +280 to do so. As noted, those are the shortest odds to win a major since Tiger Woods was +175 to win the PGA Championship in 2009.

His stats are ridiculous. Scheffler leads the Tour in total strokes gained. Rory McIlroy is third. The difference between the two is the same between McIlroy and Chris Gotterup, who ranks 69th.

It’s almost unfair at this point, but we're at the point where there's no value in backing Scottie to win. Instead, I’ll pay a little juice to take him to finish in the Top 5 — something he’s done in 10 of 13 starts this season.

Best bet: Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (-120 at bet365)

Rory McIlroy odds analysis and best bet 

We're now 10 years and two majors removed from Rory McIlroy’s last major championship victory and 13 years since he won his first major, which came at the 2011 edition of this tournament.

It’s the same old story with Rory at this point. His stats are great; he has two wins, four Top 10s, and ranks third on Tour in total strokes gained this season. However, he gets to the majors and something just seems to be missing and it feels like the weight of not being able to win another for so long is becoming a bit much.

That said, the game is there. It’s Rory McIlroy for crying out loud and the oddsmakers still respect that fact, making him the third favorite this weekend at +1,100. The U.S. Open is where he’s had his best shots in recent years, finishing T9 or better in each of his last five tries, including a solo second last year.

One of the issues for Rory during this major drought has been slow starts. He’ll play a poor round early and play catch-up with the rest of the weekend, but he’ll have a chance to post a low score early, especially if his driver is locked in. The hard surfaces at Pinehurst mean a well-hit drive could run out a long way.

A good start for Rory is imperative here but what happens from there, who knows?

Best bet: Rory McIlroy Top 10 After Round 1 (+320 at bet365)

Xander Schauffele odds analysis and best bet 

Xander Schauffele finally got the monkey off his back. He captured his first major championship victory by outlasting the field and winning the PGA Championship at Valhalla last month, and if not for Scottie going God Mode this year, we'd be talking more about the incredible season he’s having.

Schauffele is second only to Scheffler when it comes to total strokes gained this season and then there's a sizeable gap between him and Rory in third. So, it’s not like Xander was having some off year before breaking through at Valhalla. He has 10 Top-10 finishes in 14 starts this season, which included his tune-up T8 at the Memorial last week.

While he’s erased the “best to never win a major” moniker, he’s still playing second fiddle to Scottie in the golf odds, giving him a +1,000 shot to do so, but winning back-to-back major championships is difficult to do, so I'm looking at his finishing-position markets instead. 

Xander’s been so consistently good this year and his all-around game should play well at Pinehurst with its ultra-fast greens and thick rough. He also has six Top 10s in seven starts at the U.S. Open.

Best bet: Xander Schauffele Top 10 (+137 at bet365)

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