The sixth signature event of the 2025 season is here, and Philadelphia Cricket Club will play host to a PGA Tour event for the first time with this week’s Truist Championship.
Masters champion Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite in the Truist Championship odds, and he headlines a star-studded field. My trio longshots and sleeper golf picks are looking further down the board to Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, and Andrew Novak.
Truist Championship sleeper picks
- Lowry to win outright (+4000 at FanDuel)
- Burns to win outright (+5500 at bet365)
- Novak to win outright (+6500 to bet365)
Truist Championship sleeper predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Shane Lowry
+4000 at FanDuel
The Irishman has played the weekend in nine consecutive events with seven Top-20 finishes while gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking 10th in this field in tee-to-green play.
Despite his consistently strong play, Shane Lowry hasn't had a solo win since the BMW PGA Championship on the DP World Tour in September 2022. He has six worldwide Top 5s since. It’s only a matter of time before he’s victorious again.
Sleeper pick to win: Sam Burns
+5500 at bet365
Sam Burns might be turning the corner with higher finishes in three consecutive events following a trio of missed cuts. His 2025 season features just a pair of Top 10s, with his T8 at The Sentry opening the year and his T5 in the Byron Nelson just last week.
There’s an easy explanation for the poor results, too. He's lost true strokes tee-to-green and on approach. He averaged +0.28 per round on approach and +0.72 per tee-to-green in 2024, and he’s dropped down to -0.41 on approach and -0.18 tee-to-green this season.
He was better in both metrics last week in the Byron Nelson, so if it carries over, his elite putting gives him a chance. Burns paces this field in true strokes gained putting this season, after all.
Sleeper pick to win: Andrew Novak
+6500 at bet365
Confidence goes a long way on the course, and Andrew Novak has been playing elite golf. He took last week off and heads to the Philadelphia Cricket Club with his team win in Zurich, a solo second at the RBC Heritage, and a T3 at the Valero Texas Open. He’s fifth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 10th in putting during the three-tournament heater, too.
I also value that Novak ranks above average in both adjusted scoring average and bogey avoidance while pacing the PGA Tour in putts per round this season.
