2025 BMW Championship Picks & Predictions: Aberg, Young Show Promise

The second of three FedEx Cup Playoffs events is on tap this week, with the top 49 players set to play the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Baltimore, Maryland.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are atop the BMW Championship odds lists, and my top golf picks have you covered for all the action this week in Baltimore.

Golf picks for the BMW Championship 2025

• Aberg to win outright (+2500)
• Young to win outright (+3000)
• Griffin Top 20 (-120)
• Matsuyama Top Asian (+140)
• Lowry o2.5 bogeys or worse — R1 (-105)

BMW Championship outright picks

Ludvig Aberg to win outright 
+2500 at DraftKings

Ludvig Aberg heads to Caves Valley in sneaky form with a pair of Top 10s bookending his T23 in The Open.

In addition to scoring well, he’s also gained true strokes across the board in each of the three events to rank sixth in this field in true strokes gained off-the-tee, seventh in tee-to-green play and 16th in putting. 

I also value his Genesis win at the demanding and long Torrey Pines because this week’s winner will need to conquer a 7,601-yard Par 70.

Cameron Young to win outright
+3000 at bet365

Dialed is the best way to describe Cameron Young’s game right now, and Caves Valley is a perfect course fit for him. 

Young ranks first in this field in true strokes gained off-the-tee, sixth in tree-to-green play and fourth in putting across his past two events and carded his first career win at the Wyndham and a solid solo fifth in the FedEx St. Jude last week.

BMW Championship prop picks

Ben Griffin Top 20
-120 at DraftKings

The 2025 breakout star of the PGA Tour has hit the reset button in August with a T11-T9 run to climb to 13 Top 20s for the year, including his win in the Charles Schwab and team victory in the Zurich Classic. 

Ben Griffin has also gained true strokes across the board across the past two weeks, and I particularly value him ranking third in this field in putting.

Add gaining true strokes on approaches in 10 consecutive events to rank 10th in the metric, and I’m anticipating another solid week from Griffin at Caves Valley.

Hideki Matsuyama Top Asian
+140 at DraftKings

With four consecutive Top 20s, Hideki Matsuyama is trending in the right direction. He’s gained true strokes on approaches in six consecutive events to rank third in this field in the metric, while also gaining on the greens in five straight to rank 21st in true strokes gained putting during the stretch.

There are only three players in this market, and I value Matsuyama’s form over opponents Si Woo Kim and Sungjae Im.

Woo hasn’t lost true strokes putting in nine consecutive events with just two Top 20s , while Im ranks 45th in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this 49-man field dating back to the U.S. Open with just a single Top 20 across the eight events.

BMW Championship first-round pick

Shane Lowry Over 2.5 Round 1 bogeys or worse
-105 at DraftKings

It’s been a tough stretch for Shane Lowry. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open and has run off a T45-T40-T59 stretch through three events since. The Irishman has bled true strokes on and around the greens to respectively rank 45th and 48th in this 49-man field.

Lowry has also lost true strokes off the tee in consecutive tournaments to rank 40th in this field, while also ranking 32nd in distance and 38th in accuracy.

Poor driving is going to put far too much pressure on Lowry’s broken short game at the demanding Caves Valley in Round 1.

BMW Championship odds

• Scottie Scheffler: +230
• Rory McIlroy: +800
• Xander Schauffele: +1800
• Tommy Fleetwood: +2000
• Ludvig Aberg: +2200
• Justin Thomas: +2500
• Patrick Cantlay: +2500

Odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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