Masters Picks and Predictions 2026: McIlroy Joins Multi-Time Champions at Augusta

In what looked like it may be an all-time Masters collapse, Rory McIlroy held firm to capture his second win at Augusta in two years.

Below, revisit our thorough betting guide for the 2026 Masters, including a flurry of Masters picks we made ahead of the final round, a breakdown of the Masters odds, information on weather, the course, and so much more.

⛳ Masters: Key takeaways

• Outright pick: ✅ Rory McIlroy (+178/36¢): Despite an extremely shaky 73 on Saturday, McIlroy shot 1-under to finish at -12, winning his second consecutive Green Jacket by one stroke over Scottie Scheffler.
  
  
• Course: Success at Augusta National requires precise iron play to specific quadrants of tiered greens. For 2026, the 17th hole has been subtly lengthened by 10 yards, now playing at 450 yards. Distance is a massive advantage, but the swirling winds of Amen Corner remain the ultimate judge, jury, and executioner.
  
  
• Weather: The forecast for Masters Week is looking favorable. Highs will be in the low-to-mid 70s° with overnight lows in the 50s°. Precipitation chances are currently low (20–30%), though isolated light rain is possible during the early rounds.
  
  
• Expected cut: The cut includes the Top 50 players and ties. Historically, the cut line falls between 2-over and 5-over par, depending on how much the wind dries out the greens.

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Masters Round 4 picks

Check out our full Masters Round 4 picks for more.

✅ Outright pick: Rory McIlroy (+178/36¢)

This is a fair price ahead of the final round, as Rory McIlroy has struggled off the tee and hit just 21 of 42 fairways through three rounds.

I’m expecting his best driving performance on Sunday, and the defending champ also ranks fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green and ninth in putting.

Playing in the final group is also an advantage. After McIlroy left Bryson DeChambeau in the dust last year, I expect him to pull away from Cameron Young and the rest of the field.

❌ Winning score: -13 to -15 (+117/46¢)

Augusta National showed its teeth on the second nine Saturday, and the greens should play even firmer and faster during Round 4.

We’ll still see plenty of birdies, but players are going to make bogeys, and par will prove to be an excellent score.

This is a soft price, as McIlroy and Young would need to shoot a five-under 67 to push the winning score beyond -15, and I don’t think Sam Burns has a 66 in the bag on Sunday. Unfortunately, a bogey on 18 dropped McIlroy to -12.

❌ Wyndham Clark Top 20: No (+153/39.5¢)

Considering Wyndham Clark entered the week 80th in this field in true strokes gained putting, it shouldn’t have been surprising to see him lose 2.79 strokes on the greens while carding three bogeys on the second nine Saturday.

Additionally, an amazing eagle on the third hole saved an otherwise underwhelming round.

Clark sitting 10th in true strokes gained tee-to-green is also going to prove unsustainable on Sunday, which will put even more pressure on his work on the greens. Look for him to be leapfrogged on the leaderboard.

Course breakdown: What wins at Augusta National?

Augusta National Golf Club is a 7,565-yard Par 72 originally designed by Dr. Alister MacKenzie and legendary golfer Bobby Jones. For the 2026 tournament, the course has been lengthened by 10 yards due to the 17th hole (Nandina) being extended to 450 yards.

• Wide but deceptive fairways: While the fairways are generous and feature no traditional "rough," the overseeded Perennial Ryegrass is mown toward the tee, creating "sticky" lies that demand perfect contact.
• The Par 5 advantage: With three of the four Par 5s measuring between 545 and 585 yards, scoring here is the primary requirement for a Green Jacket.
• Tiered Bentgrass Greens: The putting surfaces are the fastest in golf. Success requires "Proximity to Hole" stats that place the ball in specific quadrants to avoid defensive three-putts on the massive, undulating slopes.

Key stats & player profiles to target

While distance off the tee is a massive advantage at Augusta National to shorten the daunting Par 5s, the tournament is almost always won on the second shot. Players must hit high, towering irons that land softly on firm, undulating greens.

Because the greens are so fast, traditional driving accuracy (hitting fairways) is less important than driving distance and strokes gained approach, as missing the correct tier on a green leads to almost certain three-putts.

• Strokes gained approach: This is the No. 1 predictor of success at Augusta.
• Par-5 scoring: Winners typically play the Par 5s at 8-under to 12-under for the week.
• Scrambling from tight lies: There is no rough; players must chip off "tight" mown ryegrass, which requires elite hands.
• 3-putt avoidance: On the fastest greens in the world, lag putting is a survival skill.

Players to watch

• Ludvig Åberg (+1900/5¢): His combination of world-class length and a fearless approach to tiered greens has already netted him a runner-up (2024) and a seventh-place finish (2025) here. He enters 2026 in peak form after a 9-under 63 at THE PLAYERS last month.
• Jordan Spieth (+4662/2.1¢): While he’s no longer the home soil favorite, he is in his native Texas, his Augusta IQ is unmatched. Even when his driver is erratic, Spieth's sensational scrambling and familiarity with these specific breaks make him a threat for a Green Jacket.

Masters betting links

• Masters odds
• Masters prop odds
• Masters projected cut line
• How to bet on golf
• Best golf betting sites

Masters outright picks

Check out our Masters sleeper picks for more outright predictions.

 Xander Schauffele (+1567/6¢)

With a proven track record at Augusta National, excellent current form, and a pair of major championship wins, Xander Schauffele is my favorite bet to win the 2026 Masters.

  Collin Morikawa (+4900/2¢)

Collin Morikawa was the definition of dialed from tee-to-green before a back injury caused him to withdraw after a single hole at THE PLAYERS. The uncertainty of the back injury is overpriced into this 35/1 price.

  Jake Knapp (+7592/1.3¢)

I love the course fit for Jake Knapp, and his current form is incredible. He’s pacing the PGA Tour in adjusted scoring average and Par-5 scoring while ranking second in bogey avoidance, after all.

Masters first-round leader picks

Check out our Masters first-round leader picks for more.

 Matt Fitzpatrick (+3746/2.6¢)

Matt Fitzpatrick ranks inside the Top 7 in total strokes gained, GIR rate, and birdie average this season, with perhaps the strongest recent form of any player in the field. And he ranks ninth in Round 1 scoring average, so he's no stranger to early birdie opportunities.

Masters prop picks

Check out our Masters prop odds for a full array of markets and odds.

 Jake Knapp Top 20 (+165/38¢)

I particularly value Jake Knapp pacing the PGA Tour in adjusted scoring average and Par-5 scoring, while ranking second in bogey avoidance for the year and also ranking second in this field in true strokes gained putting.

Masters odds

The Masters runs April 9-12 at Augusta National Golf Club. Below are the latest outright Masters odds.

Golfer
Scottie Scheffler	14¢ +614
Jon Rahm	7.9¢ +1166
Bryson DeChambeau	7¢ +1329
Rory McIlroy	6.4¢ +1463
Xander Schauffele	6¢ +1567
Ludvig Åberg	5.3¢ +1787
Matt Fitzpatrick	4.6¢ +2074
Cameron Young	4.4¢ +2173
Tommy Fleetwood	4.2¢ +2281
Hideki Matsuyama	3.3¢ +2930
Robert MacIntyre	2.9¢ +3348
Justin Rose	2.9¢ +3348

Odds courtesy of Kalshi as of April 9, 2026.

It's no surprise to see Scottie Scheffler with the best Masters win probability at Kalshi. The World No. 1 is priced at 14 cents on the platform, which equates to a 14% implied probability to win the tournament.

If Scheffler dons the Green Jacket on Sunday, a $100 “Yes” contract would pay $614. If he comes up short, a $100 risk on “No” would return $113.

Masters field and qualification

How do golfers qualify for the Masters?

• Past champions: Golfers who have won the Masters in previous years are automatically invited to participate for the rest of their careers.
• Current champions: Winners of other major championships (such as the U.S. Open, The Open Championship, and the PGA Championship) from the past year are invited to compete.
• PGA Tour winners: Golfers who have won PGA Tour events leading up to the Masters, typically over the past year, may also receive invitations.
• Amateur champions: Winners of certain top amateur tournaments, such as the U.S. Amateur Championship, are often invited to play.
• World Golf Rankings: The top players in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) usually receive invitations.
• Qualifying tournaments: There are opportunities for golfers to qualify for the Masters through special tournaments and qualifiers, such as the U.S. Open or other international events.

Who gets special invitations to the Masters?

The Masters committee has the discretion to extend special invitations to golfers who may not meet the above criteria but have demonstrated exceptional talent or accomplishments in the past.

For example, Joaquin Niemann, Ryo Hisatsune, and Thorbjorn Olesen all received special invitations to compete in the 2024 Masters, despite not being otherwise qualified.

How to watch & tee times

How to watch (all times ET):

Thursday, April 9 & Friday, April 10 (Rounds 1-2)

• 10:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. | ESPN ("Welcome to the Masters")
• 1:00 – 3:00 p.m. | Prime Video (New for 2026)
• 3:00 – 7:30 p.m. | ESPN (Main broadcast)

Saturday, April 11 & Sunday, April 12 (Final Rounds)

• 12:00 – 2:00 p.m. | Paramount+ (Early weekend coverage)
• 2:00 – 7:00 p.m. | CBS (Main broadcast)

The payout

The Masters has increased its purse to $21 million. Here's how much the Top 4 golfers will pocket:

• 1st place: $4.2 million
• 2nd: $2.2 million
• 3rd: $1.4 million
• 4th: $1 million
• 5th: $840,000

The coveted Green Jacket

Money isn't the only thing that golfers play for at Augusta. There's also the coveted Masters Green Jacket. This is a tradition that started in 1937 when all Augusta National members wore the jackets at the tournament to make them stand out from the public. It wasn't until 1949 that the winners began receiving the Green Jacket — and the first one was awarded to Sam Snead.

Past Masters winners

Masters betting FAQ

When is the 2026 Masters?

The 2026 Masters begins with the Honorary Starters on Thursday, April 9, and concludes with the Green Jacket ceremony on Sunday, April 12.

Where will the 2026 Masters be played?

The Masters is held annually at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia. The course is a Par 72 that has been lengthened to a record 7,565 yards for the 2026 tournament.

Who is the 2026 Masters favorite?

Scottie Scheffler (+614/14¢) is the solo favorite at Kalshi. He is followed by defending champion Rory McIlroy (+1000) and Bryson DeChambeau (+1000).

What are the Masters FRL markets?

First Round Leader (FRL) markets allow you to bet on which player will hold the lowest score after the first 18 holes on Thursday. Given Augusta’s morning/afternoon wind splits, tee times often play a huge role in this market.

How do Masters matchup bets work?

In matchup betting, you pick one golfer to post a lower score than another specific golfer. You can bet on Tournament Matchups (who finishes higher after 72 holes) or Round Matchups (who shoots the better score in a single day).

What is the Masters cut line?

The Masters features one of the most difficult cuts in golf. Only the Top 50 players (plus ties) advance to the weekend. Unlike many PGA Tour events, there is no "10-shot rule" currently in effect; you must be in the Top 50 to play Saturday and Sunday.

Are the Masters odds the same across all sportsbooks?

No. While favorites like Scheffler will be low everywhere, you will see significant "price shopping" opportunities for mid-range players. For example, a player like Jordan Spieth might be +3300 at one sportsbook but +4000 at another. Always compare shops to maximize your potential payout.

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