Our 2022 Masters odds board below shows two numbers: the golfer's best available odds supplied by a given sportsbook and that same golfer's Fair Line. That Fair Line is what we believe their true odds should be based on a number of metrics, factors, and data points.
A way to gain an edge when placing your Masters outright bets is to compare a golfer's Fair Line with their best available odds and look for disparities in your favor. When the Fair Line is shorter than the best available odds, that creates expected value and thus, an opportunity for an expected value (+EV) play.
Take Tyrrell Hatton for example. Our Fair Line suggests Hatton should be available at around +5,000 to win this year's Masters but sportsbooks like PointsBet have him available at as high as +6,000. That's an extra +1,000 in added value.
We've highlighted our three best +EV plays below. Add them to your Masters betting card before it's too late.
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Our best Masters +EV picks
Picks were made on 4/5/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
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Our best Masters expected value (+EV) plays
Sam Burns (+5,000)
The first and maybe the best expected value play on the Masters board this week is Sam Burns, whose current Fair Line sits at +2,497 and as of Tuesday afternoon, no books have him listed anywhere close to that number, with his best available odds being 50/1 at PointsBet.
Burns is making his Augusta National debut this year but has quickly become one of the Tour's best young players at just 25 years old. He already has two victories and four other Top-10 finishes under his belt this season, including his recent title defense at the Valspar. Ranks ninth in strokes gained approach — a key indicator of success here at ANGC — and has the strong overall game needed to contend at the Masters.
Shane Lowry (+5,000)
Another guy flying well under the radar — maybe even more so than Sam Burns — is Shane Lowry. At the time of writing, the Irishman has a Fair Line sitting at +3,267, well below his best available odds of +5,000 at PointsBet.
Lowry has played really well on the PGA Tour. The Dell Match Play notwithstanding, he's on a run of seven straight Top 20s, including a runner-up finish at the Honda Classic. He's gone T21 and T25 in his last two tries here at Augusta, but with the state of his game in 2022, he'll have a chance to fair even better this week.
Tom Hoge (+15,000)
Our third +EV play is more of a longshot, but still well worth your attention — Tom Hoge. PointsBet has him listed as high as +15,000 but our Fair Line indicates his odds should be much shorter than that, currently listing him at +9,424. That's a whopping +5,500 in added expected value.
Hoge, like Burns, is making his first Masters start but has proved he could go toe-to-toe with the Tour's best when he fended off Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay en route to his breakthrough win in Pebble Beach. He also finished runner-up at Amex and T4 at the RSM. Ranks seventh on approach this season and 11th tee-to-green. If his putter gets hot, he could very easily find his way into the mix come Sunday afternoon.
2022 Masters odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks in your region. Odds are best used between rounds. When available, our fair line is updated once per hour between 6 a.m. ET and 11 p.m. ET.
