Despite being five shots clear after an opening-round 59, Joaquin Niemann needed a playoff to claim victory in Mayakoba last weekend.
He closed at +1,400 but is on the golf odds board as short as 10/1 this week as the tour heads to Las Vegas Country Club, making him the No. 2 betting option behind newcomer Jon Rahm.
We break down the favorites, give free golf picks, and more in our full LIV Golf Las Vegas betting preview below.
2024 LIV Golf Las Vegas picks
- Dustin Johnson to win outright (+1,600 at DraftKings)
- Mito Pereira to win outright (+4,000 at bet365)
- Adrian Meronk to win outright (+4,000 at DraftKings)
- Dustin Johnson Top 10 (+120 at DraftKings)
- Mito Pereira Top 10 (+250 at bet365)
- Adrian Meronk Top 10 (+250 at DraftKings)
Picks were made on February 6 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Odds to win LIV Golf Las Vegas
| Golfer |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +375 | +450 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +1,000 | +1,200 |
| Tyrell Hatton | +1,100 | +1,100 |
| Brooks Koepka | +1,200 | +1,400 |
| Cameron Smith | +1,400 | +1,400 |
| Dustin Johnson | +1,400 | +1,600 |
| Talor Gooch | +1,600 | +1,400 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1,800 | +1,400 |
Odds as of February 6, 2024.
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Las Vegas Country Club course notes
LVCC is going to be set up as a 7,089-yard, Par-70 track with a pair of Par 5s and four Par 3s. Additionally, it’s also worth highlighting the Black tees at LVCC can be stretched to 7,215 yards as a Par 72, so shortening the track slightly should have it playing more difficult as a Par 70 with two fewer Par 5s.
The LPGA Takefuji Classic was played at LVCC from 2003 through 2006, and the PGA Tour used to hold its Las Vegas Invitational here from 1983-1991, but attempting to glean information from those events would be shortsighted.
LIV Golf Las Vegas picks and predictions
Dustin Johnson to win outright (+1,600)
The two-time LIV Golf winner is coming off a T5 result in Mayakoba after finishing tied for seventh in birdies and tied for sixth in putting average. He uncharacteristically hit just 38.1% of fairways after turning in a 62.6% mark last season.
I’m anticipating more fairways leading to even more scoring opportunities for Johnson this week. His 14 Top-10 finishes across 21 events highlight his ability to consistently contend.
Pick: Dustin Johnson to win outright (+1,600 at DraftKings, 0.5 units)
Pick: Dustin Johnson Top 10 (+120 at DraftKings)
Mito Pereira to win outright (+4,000)
Mito Pereira was a ball-striking phenom before taking his talents to LIV Golf, and the 28-year-old Chilean is still chasing his first win on the upstart tour. He turned in six Top-10 finishes across 13 events last season, including a solo second at the Greenbrier.
Mayakoba was a write-off for Pereira, but I’m expecting him to rebound this week. He finished first in greens in regulation (73.8%), eighth in fairways hit (64.6%), and 12th in birdies (4.26 per round) last year, so improving on last week’s 48.2%, 35.7%, 2.33 marks should propel him up the leaderboard in Vegas.
Pick: Mito Pereira to win outright (+4,000 at bet365, 0.25 units)
Pick: Mito Pereira Top 10 (+250 at bet365)
Adrian Meronk to win outright (+4,000)
It was a forgettable LIV Golf debut for Adrian Meronk in Mayakoba. He finished tied for 51st in GIR% and tied for 43rd in birdies.
Considering he posted three consecutive Top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour, including a solo second in a strong Dubai Desert Classic field just three weeks ago, I'm anticipating a quick turnaround and a much better showing this week.
Meronk gained true strokes on approach in eight consecutive events where Shotlink data was tracked, and he boasts a world-class tee game. Bank on more circles on the card in Vegas.
Pick: Adrian Meronk to win outright (+4,000 at DraftKings, 0.25 units)
Pick: Adrian Meronk Top 10 (+250 at DraftKings)
LIV Golf Las Vegas field and favorites
Despite having a share of the lead late on Sunday, Mayakoba solo favorite Jon Rahm ultimately fell two shots short of victory in what was a 66-67-70 T3 finish in his LIV Golf debut. The former World No. 1 now comes to Sin City, again as a clear +400 favorite.
Mayakoba champ Joaquin Niemann is second on the board at most books with odds ranging from 10/1 and 12/1 after closing at +1,400 a week ago. He went 59-72-70 en route to his first LIV victory after switching to the rival tour in September 2022.
Tyrrell Hatton rounds out the Top 3 at 11/1 after going T8 thanks to a Sunday-best 64 in his LIV debut last week.
The LIV Golf OGs round out the next tier, with Cameron Smith (T8 last week), Brooks Koepka (T5), Dustin Johnson (T5), and Bryson DeChambeau (T25) all available between 14/1 and 18/1. Three-time winner Talor Gooch is also in that mix between 14/1 and 16/1.
That group is responsible for wins in six of the last seven events (Niemann the other) and has 13 combined victories since LIV formed in 2022.
Covers golf betting tools
LIV Golf recent winners and odds history
Let's take a look at some recent LIV Golf winners and their closing odds to win:
| Event | Golfer | Closing odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mayakoba (February 2024) | Joaquin Niemann | +1,400 |
| Jeddah (October 2023) | Brooks Koepka (3) | +1,600 |
| Chicago (September 2023) | Bryson DeChambeau (2) | +1,100 |
| Bedminster (August 2023) | Cameron Smith (3) | +1,000 |
| Greenbrier (August 2023) | Bryson DeChambeau | +1,400 |
| London (July 2023) | Cameron Smith (2) | +900 |
| Andalucia (July 2023) | Talor Gooch (3) | +1,600 |
| Washington (May 2023) | Harold Varner III | +2,000 |
| Tulsa (May 2023) | Dustin Johnson (2) | +1,200 |
| Singapore (April 2023) | Talor Gooch (2) | +1,600 |
| Adelaide (April 2023) | Talor Gooch | +2,500 |
| Orlando (April 2023) | Brooks Koepka (2) | +4,000 |
| Tucson (March 2023) | Danny Lee | +8,000 |
| Mayakoba (Feb. 2023) | Charles Howell III | +4,000 |
Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.
