As promised, here are the stats I've collated this past few days
MONDAY (1/21)
- Martin Luther King's day - HOLIDAY
- Monday was said to be a FAVE day, but since it's a HOLIDAY, I deemed it more fit to the weekend trend of DOGS and FADES day.
FAVES to DOGS (ATS ONLY)
7-1-1
PUBLIC to FADES (ATS ONLY)
7-1-1
TUESDAY (1/22)
- Said to be a FAVE day.
- Let's see the trend...
FAVES to DOGS (ATS ONLY)
3-1
PUBLIC to FADES (ATS ONLY)
3-1
WEDNESDAY
- Said to be a DOGS and FADES day.
- For all the expert pick lurkers out there, expert picks last Wednesday turned out 0-3
- here are my picks and short write ups
DEN@HOU -2.0
pk - DEN +2.0 (2u)
This is not my write up but damn I've got to share this one. Really well written. Go see for yourself. This is from "swolesbee"
"These are the top 2 teams in the NBA as far as pace goes. Transition is the name of their game for them. Neither team has much of an offensive post presence and neither team is very effective in a halfcourt setting. The difference here is that Denver has very good transition defense(5th in the NBA), Houston does not(26th). When both teams have to run some offense Denver actually is more effective than Houston (I will rarely ever get to say that about Denver). If Houston can't score on the break all they do is try to break a team down off the dribble(Iso plays with Harden), or they run a pick n roll. They really don't have any threats with the roll man and most of their pick n rolls or pick n pops are designed for the ball carrier(Harden or Lin) to get their own shot. Teams are starting to figure this out though and as a result the Houston offense is really struggling lately. Denver matches up-very well because as I mentioned they play great transition defense but also because they are really good at defending the ball handler in the pickn roll. They are top 6 in the NBA in all 3 of these phases: transition defense, isolation plays, and defending the pick n roll ball handler.
Denver also has 2 other HUGE advantages. Bench play and offensive rebounding. Denver doesn't have a low post presence per-say but they are the best offensive rebounding team in the league. Last game Faried alone had 9 offensive rebounds lol. This in my opinion could be the difference as Houston has nobody on their roster capable of keeping Faried of the boards. Denver has the 6th best bench in the league, Houston has the 20th. Denver will bring Andre Miller, Corey Brewer, Wilson Chandler, and Javale Mcgee off the bench. Houston brings Toney Douglas, Patrick Beverley(d-league call up), Markus Morris, Greg Smith, and Delfino off the bench.
The way to beat Denver is to slow the pace down, make them play half court offense, box out their bigs, and attack them with a low post presence. Houston absolutely has no chance at doing any of that."
- I also noticed that the Reverse Line Theory is applicable in this one. Public pounding on HOU, and the line moved from -2.5 to -2.0 still in favor of HOU. hmmm.. Reverse Line Theory tallied (in my personal notes) at 10-4. Took DEN right away.
CONT. ON ANOTHER PAGE...
nice write up!
Quote Originally Posted by uste_13:
As promised, here are the stats I've collated this past few days
MONDAY (1/21)
- Martin Luther King's day - HOLIDAY
- Monday was said to be a FAVE day, but since it's a HOLIDAY, I deemed it more fit to the weekend trend of DOGS and FADES day.
FAVES to DOGS (ATS ONLY)
7-1-1
PUBLIC to FADES (ATS ONLY)
7-1-1
TUESDAY (1/22)
- Said to be a FAVE day.
- Let's see the trend...
FAVES to DOGS (ATS ONLY)
3-1
PUBLIC to FADES (ATS ONLY)
3-1
WEDNESDAY
- Said to be a DOGS and FADES day.
- For all the expert pick lurkers out there, expert picks last Wednesday turned out 0-3
- here are my picks and short write ups
DEN@HOU -2.0
pk - DEN +2.0 (2u)
This is not my write up but damn I've got to share this one. Really well written. Go see for yourself. This is from "swolesbee"
"These are the top 2 teams in the NBA as far as pace goes. Transition is the name of their game for them. Neither team has much of an offensive post presence and neither team is very effective in a halfcourt setting. The difference here is that Denver has very good transition defense(5th in the NBA), Houston does not(26th). When both teams have to run some offense Denver actually is more effective than Houston (I will rarely ever get to say that about Denver). If Houston can't score on the break all they do is try to break a team down off the dribble(Iso plays with Harden), or they run a pick n roll. They really don't have any threats with the roll man and most of their pick n rolls or pick n pops are designed for the ball carrier(Harden or Lin) to get their own shot. Teams are starting to figure this out though and as a result the Houston offense is really struggling lately. Denver matches up-very well because as I mentioned they play great transition defense but also because they are really good at defending the ball handler in the pickn roll. They are top 6 in the NBA in all 3 of these phases: transition defense, isolation plays, and defending the pick n roll ball handler.
Denver also has 2 other HUGE advantages. Bench play and offensive rebounding. Denver doesn't have a low post presence per-say but they are the best offensive rebounding team in the league. Last game Faried alone had 9 offensive rebounds lol. This in my opinion could be the difference as Houston has nobody on their roster capable of keeping Faried of the boards. Denver has the 6th best bench in the league, Houston has the 20th. Denver will bring Andre Miller, Corey Brewer, Wilson Chandler, and Javale Mcgee off the bench. Houston brings Toney Douglas, Patrick Beverley(d-league call up), Markus Morris, Greg Smith, and Delfino off the bench.
The way to beat Denver is to slow the pace down, make them play half court offense, box out their bigs, and attack them with a low post presence. Houston absolutely has no chance at doing any of that."
- I also noticed that the Reverse Line Theory is applicable in this one. Public pounding on HOU, and the line moved from -2.5 to -2.0 still in favor of HOU. hmmm.. Reverse Line Theory tallied (in my personal notes) at 10-4. Took DEN right away.
IMO the bookies want us to believe that since GSW was beaten by LAC, and OKC won against LAC, ergo OKC wins at GSW? hmmm..
OKC is playing its 3rd game in 4 outings. PLUS the 2 games they played was against (IMO) elite teams. One of those match-up even ended up in an OT loss. Fatigue must be setting in..
RLM angle is also seen in this match up. Public pounding OKC, and still the line moved in favor of OKC. Classic recipe for the RLM. As I have tallied in my personal notes, RLM resulted in a 10-4 ratio. Out of 14 times I've applied this theory, I won 10 times and lost the rest. Not bad. I guess I'd be applying it one more time.
BOL TO ALL!
BTW, I only write about ATS trends, I've never played totals. But if someone out there could educate me about connections or trends of the totals in relation to spreads, I'd be very happy. THANKS!
OKC@GSW +2.0
pk - GSW +2.0
IMO the bookies want us to believe that since GSW was beaten by LAC, and OKC won against LAC, ergo OKC wins at GSW? hmmm..
OKC is playing its 3rd game in 4 outings. PLUS the 2 games they played was against (IMO) elite teams. One of those match-up even ended up in an OT loss. Fatigue must be setting in..
RLM angle is also seen in this match up. Public pounding OKC, and still the line moved in favor of OKC. Classic recipe for the RLM. As I have tallied in my personal notes, RLM resulted in a 10-4 ratio. Out of 14 times I've applied this theory, I won 10 times and lost the rest. Not bad. I guess I'd be applying it one more time.
BOL TO ALL!
BTW, I only write about ATS trends, I've never played totals. But if someone out there could educate me about connections or trends of the totals in relation to spreads, I'd be very happy. THANKS!
I really cant exactly recall where or who I heard it from, but they said that weekends, wednesdays and fridays are dogs/fades day..I'm not really sure about that so taking notes and tallying has been my way of checking if this is really what it is..
I really cant exactly recall where or who I heard it from, but they said that weekends, wednesdays and fridays are dogs/fades day..I'm not really sure about that so taking notes and tallying has been my way of checking if this is really what it is..
hmm, you're right! nope, I'm not seeing a new trend, and if I do, I'll post 'em up quick. So far I'm posting what the numbers show. No BS.
Hey Mavin, if you could be so kind to post the trends that you have collated long before this, (for each day e.g. monday, tuesday...) of the week), I'd be very happy to test the numbers on it.
From the time that I had been taking notes on this trends, I have been making good fortune. Having started this Sunday, I'm 6-1, and 2-0 for two consecutive days. Last week, I was 11-3. So, hopefully, this run continues and the trends I'm tallying will help us more.
I have not been regularly posting my picks since I have a day job and capping is just a hobby for me. Just a recap my pks for today are DEN ATS and GSW ATS.
BOL TO EVERYONE.
hmm, you're right! nope, I'm not seeing a new trend, and if I do, I'll post 'em up quick. So far I'm posting what the numbers show. No BS.
Hey Mavin, if you could be so kind to post the trends that you have collated long before this, (for each day e.g. monday, tuesday...) of the week), I'd be very happy to test the numbers on it.
From the time that I had been taking notes on this trends, I have been making good fortune. Having started this Sunday, I'm 6-1, and 2-0 for two consecutive days. Last week, I was 11-3. So, hopefully, this run continues and the trends I'm tallying will help us more.
I have not been regularly posting my picks since I have a day job and capping is just a hobby for me. Just a recap my pks for today are DEN ATS and GSW ATS.
OKC was a -9.5 favorite vs Golden State at home earlier this season. I think that means on a neutral court OKC is a 6-point favorite and at GS, they'd be a 3.5 to 4 point favorite.
So add the fatigue issue, and isn't OKC -2 a correct line? In other words, it's not a sucker line???
OKC was a -9.5 favorite vs Golden State at home earlier this season. I think that means on a neutral court OKC is a 6-point favorite and at GS, they'd be a 3.5 to 4 point favorite.
So add the fatigue issue, and isn't OKC -2 a correct line? In other words, it's not a sucker line???
OKC was a -9.5 favorite vs Golden State at home earlier this season. I think that means on a neutral court OKC is a 6-point favorite and at GS, they'd be a 3.5 to 4 point favorite.
So add the fatigue issue, and isn't OKC -2 a correct line? In other words, it's not a sucker line???
OKC was a -9.5 favorite vs Golden State at home earlier this season. I think that means on a neutral court OKC is a 6-point favorite and at GS, they'd be a 3.5 to 4 point favorite.
So add the fatigue issue, and isn't OKC -2 a correct line? In other words, it's not a sucker line???
^^ That's pretty meaningless. Show me data on 1k Wednesdays and I'll start to pay attention.
ATS is virtually half favorites and half dogs when looking at the trends page on covers.com. That simply means these numbers should converge at some point.
^^ That's pretty meaningless. Show me data on 1k Wednesdays and I'll start to pay attention.
ATS is virtually half favorites and half dogs when looking at the trends page on covers.com. That simply means these numbers should converge at some point.
Calculation model - day 1 recap: Well, what a start! Very promising begining of the experiment! LOL ;) Day 1: record 0-2 ORL-DET: UNDER 194,5 - loss (by 0,5 pts.!) PHI-MIL: UNDER 196 - loss (45 sec. before the end of the game the score was 102-94... ! ) But nothing to worry about since we are just testing...
Calculation model - day 1 recap: Well, what a start! Very promising begining of the experiment! LOL ;) Day 1: record 0-2 ORL-DET: UNDER 194,5 - loss (by 0,5 pts.!) PHI-MIL: UNDER 196 - loss (45 sec. before the end of the game the score was 102-94... ! ) But nothing to worry about since we are just testing...
do ya think the long lay off helped MIA everyone is leaning on toronto i think the boyz from south beach will show up BIG tonight at home and i cant ignore the RML rarely do u see a double digit home fav drop points from -12 to -10.5
do ya think the long lay off helped MIA everyone is leaning on toronto i think the boyz from south beach will show up BIG tonight at home and i cant ignore the RML rarely do u see a double digit home fav drop points from -12 to -10.5
do ya think the long lay off helped MIA everyone is leaning on toronto i think the boyz from south beach will show up BIG tonight at home and i cant ignore the RML rarely do u see a double digit home fav drop points from -12 to -10.5
Too much rest is just as bad as no rest, IMO, which is why the line is dropping.
Quote Originally Posted by ocer12:
do ya think the long lay off helped MIA everyone is leaning on toronto i think the boyz from south beach will show up BIG tonight at home and i cant ignore the RML rarely do u see a double digit home fav drop points from -12 to -10.5
Too much rest is just as bad as no rest, IMO, which is why the line is dropping.
do ya think the long lay off helped MIA everyone is leaning on toronto i think the boyz from south beach will show up BIG tonight at home and i cant ignore the RML rarely do u see a double digit home fav drop points from -12 to -10.5
toronto not the same team on the road, especially against over .500 teams(1-6 on road ATS vs. over .500 teams), i'm leaning that the lay the beat down on the raps tonight!
Quote Originally Posted by ocer12:
do ya think the long lay off helped MIA everyone is leaning on toronto i think the boyz from south beach will show up BIG tonight at home and i cant ignore the RML rarely do u see a double digit home fav drop points from -12 to -10.5
toronto not the same team on the road, especially against over .500 teams(1-6 on road ATS vs. over .500 teams), i'm leaning that the lay the beat down on the raps tonight!
Calculation model - day 1 recap: Well, what a start! Very promising begining of the experiment! LOL ;) Day 1: record 0-2 ORL-DET: UNDER 194,5 - loss (by 0,5 pts.!) PHI-MIL: UNDER 196 - loss (45 sec. before the end of the game the score was 102-94... ! ) But nothing to worry about since we are just testing...
Don't forget: A system that loses all the time, wins all the time.
Quote Originally Posted by Zireal:
Calculation model - day 1 recap: Well, what a start! Very promising begining of the experiment! LOL ;) Day 1: record 0-2 ORL-DET: UNDER 194,5 - loss (by 0,5 pts.!) PHI-MIL: UNDER 196 - loss (45 sec. before the end of the game the score was 102-94... ! ) But nothing to worry about since we are just testing...
Don't forget: A system that loses all the time, wins all the time.
I think it is a good spot for Golden State. That was a good win for them against the Clippers, so we can read that two ways: 1. letdown; 2. build upon. I watched that game and saw a team that believed in itself down the stretch that helped them pull away. I think that carries over combined with the fact they are getting OKC in a good spot. I took the Warriors +2.
Good luck.
I think it is a good spot for Golden State. That was a good win for them against the Clippers, so we can read that two ways: 1. letdown; 2. build upon. I watched that game and saw a team that believed in itself down the stretch that helped them pull away. I think that carries over combined with the fact they are getting OKC in a good spot. I took the Warriors +2.
I was chomping at the bit to get this pick in yesterday and the line at -4 for the Memphis Grizzlies is a dream come true. The way the Lakers are playing Memphis should be favored by 8 or 9 points!
What a gift to only have to lay four points. Lakers play no defense and are up against the number 2 defensive team in the league. My money is piling up fading the Fakers!
Howard, Nash, Kobe have no chemistry and definitely no confidence. Until the Fakers show me something I am fading them.
Don't buck the trend!
LA Lakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games
LA Lakers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games
LA Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
Final:
Memphis Grizzlies -4 -110 $220 to win $200
I was chomping at the bit to get this pick in yesterday and the line at -4 for the Memphis Grizzlies is a dream come true. The way the Lakers are playing Memphis should be favored by 8 or 9 points!
What a gift to only have to lay four points. Lakers play no defense and are up against the number 2 defensive team in the league. My money is piling up fading the Fakers!
Howard, Nash, Kobe have no chemistry and definitely no confidence. Until the Fakers show me something I am fading them.
Don't buck the trend!
LA Lakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games
LA Lakers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games
LA Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
toronto not thed same team on the road, especially against over .500 teams(1-6 on road ATS vs. over .500 teams), i'm leaning that the lay the beat down on the raps tonight
Thanx that's what I was thinking
Quote Originally Posted by greengiants:
toronto not thed same team on the road, especially against over .500 teams(1-6 on road ATS vs. over .500 teams), i'm leaning that the lay the beat down on the raps tonight
A young team gets a chance to prove its worth vs. the team with the best record in the NBA when the Golden State Warriors (25-15, 23-16-1 ATS) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (32-9, 24-15-2 ATS). The young Warriors are in second place in the Pacific Division behind the LA Clippers and they are just one game behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the fourth in the Western Conference. The Thunder are playing the second game of a back-to-back after visiting the Clippers, so they may have to guard against some fatigue in the fourth quarter vs. a Golden State team that loves to run the floor.
The Warriors recently had a chance to see how they match up with the best teams in the NBA, but unfortunately Stephen Curry injured his ankle and missed back-to-back losses to the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs. Curry came back two games ago and has not had any lingering effects, as he had 28 points and 6 assists in a big 106-99 win over the Clips on Monday. With Curry back, the Warriors now have one of the few lineups that can match up with the Thunder as this is a team that ranks seventh in the in FG% and leads the league in three-point shooting at 39.4 percent while simultaneously ranking sixth in field goal percentage allowed and third in three-point defense! The Warriors have a potent backcourt with Curry (20.7 points and 6.6 assists per game), Klay Thompson (16.0 points) and Jarrett Jack off the bench (12.6 points) and they have a probably All-Star up front in David Lee, arguably the hardest working player in the NBA who is averaging a double-double with 19.7 points and 10.9 rebounds while also adding 3.7 assists. Rookie center Festus Ezeli out of Vanderbilt provides defensive toughness while averaging 1.0 blocked shot per game.
Now the Thunder did not get to be 32-9 heading into Tuesday by accident. Oklahoma City leads the NBA in scoring with a whopping 106.0 points per game, which is not surprising for a team that boasts Durant and Westbrook, and the Thunder's underrated defense ranks third in field goal percentage against. They have also won the last five head-to-head meetings vs. the Warriors including the first meeting this season, but that may actually work against the Thunder here as now that Golden State is at full strength with Curry back, the Warriors finally have a lineup capable of getting some needed revenge.
Despite their two recent losses to elite teams while Curry was out, the Warriors are still a sparkling 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games vs. teams with winning SU records. The Thunder do not have many negative situations, but one is that they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600.
Pick: OVER 206
Record to Date: 0-1
January 23,2013
OKC Thunder at GS Warriors
A young team gets a chance to prove its worth vs. the team with the best record in the NBA when the Golden State Warriors (25-15, 23-16-1 ATS) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (32-9, 24-15-2 ATS). The young Warriors are in second place in the Pacific Division behind the LA Clippers and they are just one game behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the fourth in the Western Conference. The Thunder are playing the second game of a back-to-back after visiting the Clippers, so they may have to guard against some fatigue in the fourth quarter vs. a Golden State team that loves to run the floor.
The Warriors recently had a chance to see how they match up with the best teams in the NBA, but unfortunately Stephen Curry injured his ankle and missed back-to-back losses to the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs. Curry came back two games ago and has not had any lingering effects, as he had 28 points and 6 assists in a big 106-99 win over the Clips on Monday. With Curry back, the Warriors now have one of the few lineups that can match up with the Thunder as this is a team that ranks seventh in the in FG% and leads the league in three-point shooting at 39.4 percent while simultaneously ranking sixth in field goal percentage allowed and third in three-point defense! The Warriors have a potent backcourt with Curry (20.7 points and 6.6 assists per game), Klay Thompson (16.0 points) and Jarrett Jack off the bench (12.6 points) and they have a probably All-Star up front in David Lee, arguably the hardest working player in the NBA who is averaging a double-double with 19.7 points and 10.9 rebounds while also adding 3.7 assists. Rookie center Festus Ezeli out of Vanderbilt provides defensive toughness while averaging 1.0 blocked shot per game.
Now the Thunder did not get to be 32-9 heading into Tuesday by accident. Oklahoma City leads the NBA in scoring with a whopping 106.0 points per game, which is not surprising for a team that boasts Durant and Westbrook, and the Thunder's underrated defense ranks third in field goal percentage against. They have also won the last five head-to-head meetings vs. the Warriors including the first meeting this season, but that may actually work against the Thunder here as now that Golden State is at full strength with Curry back, the Warriors finally have a lineup capable of getting some needed revenge.
Despite their two recent losses to elite teams while Curry was out, the Warriors are still a sparkling 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games vs. teams with winning SU records. The Thunder do not have many negative situations, but one is that they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600.
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