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Posted: #4501
I am completing an open parlay just need one correct pick within the next 60 days Mavin Melo what are your leans today?

I am looking at maybe playing someone with a losing streak maybe the lakers or the rockets- both of these teams won on a holiday - Christmas
 
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Posted: #4502
MAVIL  

BOL TODAY IN ALL UR PICKS.

GONNA RIDE WITH U FOR 1st TIME.   
 
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Posted: #4503
Quote Originally Posted by dastovski365:


Then why didnt the books do the same last year, when SAS  covered how many games? around 20?
Maybe the problem is just the schedule? 4 games in 5 days / 8 in 12 / 5 B2B in 15 days? With all the travelling? 
They're learning as well. It is just people like you and me who work at books. Not some super people
 
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Posted: #4504
I will first post my plays and will recap records for today and yesterday later as I have some heavy researches to do:

The game at MSG is a milestone game for Melo. At the same time the Nets and the Knicks have both been playing a great basketball especially between them. I see an under in this game along with the Nets covering

Final:
Under 192.5 (-110)  220$   NY Knicks - BROOKLYN Nets
BROOKLYN Nets +3.5  (-110)   110$
 
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Posted: #4505
I am testing another theory on today's card. I'll be choosing sides depending on the line movement (if there is) and the public view. The only bet I've made today is on IND and PHI. Other bets stated here are for the purpose of seeing if this theory is correct (or not). Fingers crossed. If this turns out great, we can definitely increase our chances of beating the books.

This theory is basically going against what the bookies expects us to do.

"REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY APPROACH"

IND@MEM -6
pk - IND
- The public is clearly on the IND side on this one. On the other hand, line moved from -7 to -6. The bookies are baiting us on taking the MEM by decreasing the line, so I did the complete opposite. I did put a unit play on this one. Hopefully it turns out great.

SAC@NOH -6
pk - SAC
- Same thing with the IND-MEM matchup. Line moved in favor of NOH so I picked SAC. That simple. 

HOU@CHA +7
pk - HOU
- Line moved in favor of CHA. Picked HOU.

MIN@ATL
pk - ATL
- There is a slight movement in favor of MIN. Picked ATL.

BRK@NYK -3.5
pk - NYK
- There is a very slight increase in the line in favor of BRK. Picked NYK.

SAS@PHIL +6 (POD)
pk - PHIL
- Line movement favors SAS. Picked PHIL in this matchup with 1unit wagered. 
- Line moved for SAS in spite of the public betting on SAS. PHI enjoys the home court advantage, PLUS a revenge factor angle. This also has the FATIQUE FACTOR THEORY, SAS playing 3rd game in 4 outings. 

I was not able to read the other games so i'll stick with this. 

AGAIN, this is only for the sole purpose of testing if this trend is applicable or not. The picks I have made does not take into account other factors so as to make this experiment a control of other settings to come. It is also a MONDAY, and last week I observed that FAVORITES won and covered most of the card. 

PS. Hopefully, no one ends up bashing me for this. LOL

Once again, whatever ur picks are, BEST OF LUCK. 

 
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Posted: #4506
Final:
Parlay Teaser on Totals:
Under 178.5 MEMPHIS Grizzlies - INDIANA Pacers with Under 199.5 NY Knicks - BROOKLYN Nets  (+108)    200$
 
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Posted: #4507
Final:
Parlay Teaser on Totals:
199.5 NY Knicks - BROOKLYN Nets with Under 192 ATLANTA Hawks - MINNESOTA TWolves  (+108)  200$

 
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Posted: #4508
Quote Originally Posted by dexterjau3:

Won't have the time to follow tomorrows games, so the good old gut feeling will have to do.

January 21, Bet 01
New York Knicks -3.5 - $115 to win $100

January 21, Bet 02
New Orleans Hornets -6.5 - $115 to win $100

January 21, Bet 03
UNDER Grizzlies 173 - $115 to win $100
gl
 
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Posted: #4509
Quote Originally Posted by powercore:

I got it locked in for an underdog Monday
Ind +6
Sac +7
Brk +4
Char +6.5
Phi +6.5

Like Mavin has said before underdogs rule the day usually on Mondays, and hopefully it continues here.

Ind has shooting well, and usually matchups up well with other defensive teams. 6 points is a lot in a defensive game.

Sac. will be up for this one i think to finish with a winning road trip. and N.O. has made it clear they are not good enough to be a big home favorite.

Brk is better in the paint, already beat the Knicks once. Should be a close one so I will take the points. Knicks have had quite a layoff and they Boston on deck too.

Char has been much better lately, and houston has not. Have to fade houston until they get out of their funk.

Spurs are playing 3 game in 4 nights, and 4th in 6 nights. Probably wearing down a little and ready to be back home. Philly has rest and points on their side.

Ty and gl to all...
Thanks. GL
 
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Posted: #4510
Quote Originally Posted by powercore:

I got it locked in for an underdog Monday
Ind +6
Sac +7
Brk +4
Char +6.5
Phi +6.5

Like Mavin has said before underdogs rule the day usually on Mondays, and hopefully it continues here.

Ind has shooting well, and usually matchups up well with other defensive teams. 6 points is a lot in a defensive game.

Sac. will be up for this one i think to finish with a winning road trip. and N.O. has made it clear they are not good enough to be a big home favorite.

Brk is better in the paint, already beat the Knicks once. Should be a close one so I will take the points. Knicks have had quite a layoff and they Boston on deck too.

Char has been much better lately, and houston has not. Have to fade houston until they get out of their funk.

Spurs are playing 3 game in 4 nights, and 4th in 6 nights. Probably wearing down a little and ready to be back home. Philly has rest and points on their side.

Ty and gl to all...

according to the last 5 weeks of data . Monday is lean more on favor than dog.  Dogs day is on  wed, friday  and  saturday . I hope this is help. BOL
 
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Posted: #4511
Quote Originally Posted by m10:

My two early leans are Indiana +7 and New Orleans -6.  I see an NO team that will bounce back off the Gstate game.  I think that was a product of returning home off the road trip.  I like them to take care of the Kings who are in their final game of a road trip and heading home.

Indiana +7 just seems too much here.  The idea of the top two defensive teams playing with a 7 point margin, I will take the points with confidence.  Indiana should own the edge on the glass and think this game stays close throughout. 

GL 
gl
 
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Posted: #4512
Quote Originally Posted by uste_13:

I am testing another theory on today's card. I'll be choosing sides depending on the line movement (if there is) and the public view. The only bet I've made today is on IND and PHI. Other bets stated here are for the purpose of seeing if this theory is correct (or not). Fingers crossed. If this turns out great, we can definitely increase our chances of beating the books.

This theory is basically going against what the bookies expects us to do.

"REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY APPROACH"

IND@MEM -6
pk - IND
- The public is clearly on the IND side on this one. On the other hand, line moved from -7 to -6. The bookies are baiting us on taking the MEM by decreasing the line, so I did the complete opposite. I did put a unit play on this one. Hopefully it turns out great.

SAC@NOH -6
pk - SAC
- Same thing with the IND-MEM matchup. Line moved in favor of NOH so I picked SAC. That simple. 

HOU@CHA +7
pk - HOU
- Line moved in favor of CHA. Picked HOU.

MIN@ATL
pk - ATL
- There is a slight movement in favor of MIN. Picked ATL.

BRK@NYK -3.5
pk - NYK
- There is a very slight increase in the line in favor of BRK. Picked NYK.

SAS@PHIL +6 (POD)
pk - PHIL
- Line movement favors SAS. Picked PHIL in this matchup with 1unit wagered. 
- Line moved for SAS in spite of the public betting on SAS. PHI enjoys the home court advantage, PLUS a revenge factor angle. This also has the FATIQUE FACTOR THEORY, SAS playing 3rd game in 4 outings. 

I was not able to read the other games so i'll stick with this. 

AGAIN, this is only for the sole purpose of testing if this trend is applicable or not. The picks I have made does not take into account other factors so as to make this experiment a control of other settings to come. It is also a MONDAY, and last week I observed that FAVORITES won and covered most of the card. 

PS. Hopefully, no one ends up bashing me for this. LOL

Once again, whatever ur picks are, BEST OF LUCK. 

nice work. gl
 
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Posted: #4513
ELGALLO, Manutd - gl guys
 
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Posted: #4514
Thanks MAVIN.

As an additional info on this experiment I'm doing, I'm leaning on 4 FAVES and 2 DOGS. Plus the MONDAY FAVE DAY angle. If this turns out well, MONDAYS will definitely be a  day!

OOPS. No jinxing just yet! 

Will tally the findings after today's games.
 
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Posted: #4515
record?
 
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Posted: #4516
Mavin, did you start an NHL thread? If you did I can't find it anywhere. Thanks
 
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Posted: #4517
Be careful with Monday trends today. With early games coming off the weekend this probably won't conform to traditional Monday trends. 

 
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Posted: #4518
Quote Originally Posted by uste_13:

I am testing another theory on today's card. I'll be choosing sides depending on the line movement (if there is) and the public view. The only bet I've made today is on IND and PHI. Other bets stated here are for the purpose of seeing if this theory is correct (or not). Fingers crossed. If this turns out great, we can definitely increase our chances of beating the books.

This theory is basically going against what the bookies expects us to do.

"REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY APPROACH"

IND@MEM -6
pk - IND
- The public is clearly on the IND side on this one. On the other hand, line moved from -7 to -6. The bookies are baiting us on taking the MEM by decreasing the line, so I did the complete opposite. I did put a unit play on this one. Hopefully it turns out great.

SAC@NOH -6
pk - SAC
- Same thing with the IND-MEM matchup. Line moved in favor of NOH so I picked SAC. That simple. 

HOU@CHA +7
pk - HOU
- Line moved in favor of CHA. Picked HOU.

MIN@ATL
pk - ATL
- There is a slight movement in favor of MIN. Picked ATL.

BRK@NYK -3.5
pk - NYK
- There is a very slight increase in the line in favor of BRK. Picked NYK.

SAS@PHIL +6 (POD)
pk - PHIL
- Line movement favors SAS. Picked PHIL in this matchup with 1unit wagered. 
- Line moved for SAS in spite of the public betting on SAS. PHI enjoys the home court advantage, PLUS a revenge factor angle. This also has the FATIQUE FACTOR THEORY, SAS playing 3rd game in 4 outings. 

I was not able to read the other games so i'll stick with this. 

AGAIN, this is only for the sole purpose of testing if this trend is applicable or not. The picks I have made does not take into account other factors so as to make this experiment a control of other settings to come. It is also a MONDAY, and last week I observed that FAVORITES won and covered most of the card. 

PS. Hopefully, no one ends up bashing me for this. LOL

Once again, whatever ur picks are, BEST OF LUCK. 


Interesting view- I was doing the same this morning and parlayed them for $1 just to test out a similar theory.

Also my teaser for $5 for $40 which I do almost every day...

7 Team Teaser 6, 6½, 7 pts Football & 5½, 6,6½ pts Basketball

01/21/2013 @ 01:15 PM NBA

[701] TOTAL o166½-110 (B+5½) 

(INDIANA vrs MEMPHIS)

01/21/2013 @ 02:05 PM NBA

[705] HOUSTON -1-110 (B+5½)

01/21/2013 @ 03:35 PM NBA

[710] NEW YORK +1½-110 (B+5½)

01/21/2013 @ 04:05 PM NBA

[711] LA CLIPPERS +2-110 (B+5½)

01/21/2013 @ 07:05 PM NBA

[713] SAN ANTONIO -½-110 (B+5½)

01/21/2013 @ 09:35 PM NBA

[715] LA LAKERS +6½-110 (B+5½)

01/21/2013 @ 10:05 PM NBA

[718] PORTLAND PK-110 (B+5½)

 
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Posted: #4519
how can you trend today as regular monday. it;s a holiday
 
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Posted: #4520
It's funny that threaders have come to think that betting and making money is as simple as looking for Reverse Line Movement....

Line movement is based purely on the amount of money that comes in on each side of the best.. This does not dictate the future and is not a SURE THING.

The oddsmakers do know what they are doing (by capping and setting lines) but like anything else, are not always right. You still have to do your own analysis of each game to make your picks.

Don't fall victim to trying to find 1 trend that you think you can ride with forever to make money. Like you have figured something out that we all haven't been able to in all our years of betting.

I like to think of placing a wage like applying for a mortgage. If you were applying for a loan, would you go onto a public forum and sign up because the person is currently getting a lot of hits on their thread and state some good points? The answer is NO.

Do your own DD and RESEARCH!  
 
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Posted: #4521
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

how can you trend today as regular monday. it;s a holiday

You're right my man. If we put the MONDAY factor away from the equation, the reverse psychology is still played. It just so happened that 4 favorites and 2 dogs came out from this experiment. For what it's worth, the results of today's card will be put on the holiday/weekend list and not on a monday trend. 
 
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Posted: #4522
Because of lack of time and focusing a lot on other things I have not been doing my usual parlay with and analyzing the results. Over the weekend I ran all my $1 Parlays, I did not do an avg. of win/loss parlays but rather did a win/loss within the parlays. I noticed (have posted this before) that I have been hitting anywhere from 6-8 on avg. out of 10-12 picks- which I think is pretty good. The trend goes back to late oct until the present- I have been putting my open parlay theory/play in recent days and have deviated from following my initial plan which is if I keep hitting 6-8 I should be able to pick 3-4 games a day that I can bet $50-100 on- I should be able to hit 2-3 based on my calculations. Depending on the spread I may be doing ML- yesterday I had picked in one parlay Lakers, Celtics, Mavs, OKC and all the unders and then Lakers Det Mavs and OKC and all the overs. in the first parlay I lost Lakers and Celtics and OKC and the unders- in the second one I hit Det Mavs (OKC close but no cigar) and all the overs. so that is 6 of 8 on that one the teaser was 4 of 7- I will be testing this theory out today again without betting the individuals until I lose 2-4 in the first games- by avg. I hope that the latest games come my way.

9 Teams lets see if it gets over 50%

(REGULAR PARLAY CARD)

01/21/2013 @ 01:15 PM NBA

5. INDIANA +7

01/21/2013 @ 01:15 PM NBA

8. NEW ORLEANS -7

01/21/2013 @ 02:05 PM NBA

9. HOUSTON -7

01/21/2013 @ 02:05 PM NBA

12. ATLANTA -7

01/21/2013 @ 03:35 PM NBA

14. NEW YORK -4

01/21/2013 @ 04:05 PM NBA

15. LA CLIPPERS -4

01/21/2013 @ 07:05 PM NBA

17. SAN ANTONIO -7

01/21/2013 @ 09:35 PM NBA

19. LA LAKERS +1

01/21/2013 @ 10:05 PM NBA

22. PORTLAND -6

 
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Posted: #4523

REGULAR TEASER CARD)

01/21/2013 @ 01:15 PM NBA

5. INDIANA +12

01/21/2013 @ 01:15 PM NBA

7. SACRAMENTO +12

01/21/2013 @ 02:05 PM NBA

9. HOUSTON -2

01/21/2013 @ 02:05 PM NBA

12. ATLANTA -2

01/21/2013 @ 03:35 PM NBA

14. NEW YORK +1

01/21/2013 @ 04:05 PM NBA

15. LA CLIPPERS +2

01/21/2013 @ 07:05 PM NBA

17. SAN ANTONIO -2

01/21/2013 @ 09:35 PM NBA

19. LA LAKERS +6

01/21/2013 @ 10:05 PM NBA

22. PORTLAND -1

 
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Posted: #4524
Quote Originally Posted by keithprochaska:

Mavin, did you start an NHL thread? If you did I can't find it anywhere. Thanks
No, keith. I usually join the action after the first half of the season. However - if there will be the games I feel strongly about - they'll be posted here
 
 
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Posted: #4525
Quote Originally Posted by WSTgekko:

It's funny that threaders have come to think that betting and making money is as simple as looking for Reverse Line Movement....

Line movement is based purely on the amount of money that comes in on each side of the best.. This does not dictate the future and is not a SURE THING.

The oddsmakers do know what they are doing (by capping and setting lines) but like anything else, are not always right. You still have to do your own analysis of each game to make your picks.

Don't fall victim to trying to find 1 trend that you think you can ride with forever to make money. Like you have figured something out that we all haven't been able to in all our years of betting.

I like to think of placing a wage like applying for a mortgage. If you were applying for a loan, would you go onto a public forum and sign up because the person is currently getting a lot of hits on their thread and state some good points? The answer is NO.

Do your own DD and RESEARCH!  
If you read the thread - that exact principle how the lines move and what moves them is explained precisely and anyone who wants to take that topic and research it - has or had to read that first.
Another principle we follow here is the one you underline at the end. This thread was created for that  exact purpose - to help handicap the games independently and acquiring the right habits and learning to use all the available tools for that purpose
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