Posted:
#3576
I dont know about Dallas covering comfortably, I capped the game and the line is pretty close with the fatigue factored in already (4-6 Points).
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
Posted:
#3578
Quote Originally Posted by uste_13:
Here's a little contribution of mine. Hope it helps
Here's a little contribution of mine. Hope it helps
For the past few days, I have been tallying and tailing games according to some "theories" I have learned on this thread, other threads and some personal observations. First I'll state and describe the theories, then I'll state the How to win part and lastly, the tally how it went the past few days (about a week). Please do note that the tally is not my standings/wagers, but rather the game results as a whole. I study the line and use these theories in choosing winners. If it wins then 1-0, it it loses, then 0-1.So here goes... (hope this doesn't confuse anyone 
)
)Reverse Line Movement Theory
This is when an (obvious) underdog and a (obvious) favorite is set-up in such a way that the line moved in favor of the favorite despite the heavy public betting on the favorite. They say that this line movement attracts the bettors to wager on the side which the line (movement) favors, so as to make Vegas "richer" by making the underdogs win/cover the game.
How to win? They say that betting on the underdogs makes winners most of the time. This is where the saying "fading the public" comes from.
The tally (4-3)
The TRAP Games
This is when a line is called "fishy."
For example, OKC@WAS +1.0
Obviously, people will jump on OKC, sleep, and then wake up as winners after the game. This is pretty self-explanatory. This are the type of lines where the spreads does not actually conform to what people perceive as fairly set spread. If the line stinks, then it's fishy indeed.
How to win? Go with the underdogs! WTF BUT WHY?!! Let's go back to the OKC@WAS +1.0. FOR VERY OBVIOUS REASONS, people will bet on OKC. If all turns out well, the consensus will show about 70%-90% of bets on this side. For you to understand this, let's say that you are the bookie. As the bookie, what side do you want to cover? The favorites?..then pay them ALL the BIG BETS they wagered? Or have the dogs win and get that 70%-90% bets from the public? 
The tally (4-1)
Fatigue Factor Theory
This is when a team is playing its 4th game in 5 days, 5th game in 7 days,etc. This also applies to 4 road games back to back. Well, you get the picture. When one team is rested, and the other is winded up, expect for a let down.
How to win? Well, go for the rested ones. Simple. This Theory is tricky, but (personally) effective. Look for teams that have played 4 games in 5 days. Look also for those teams that played 2OT the night before...those that played with the MIA, OKC and LAC in 3 days straight..even a well rested WAS will kill any team that is fatigued.
The tally (5-0)
The theories stated above are NOT FACTS and does not apply to ALL games. OKC are called road warriors and the fatigue theory wont make you winners against this team. RLM does not work all the time, favorites are called favorites because they can crash teams if they wanted to. And lastly, TRAP games may not be a trap after all. But if used wisely and backed up with a good mind, I'm pretty sure that every now and then, these will make some of us winners.
BOL TO ALL!
p.s. Thanks MAVIN 
I like this
Posted:
#3579
Quote Originally Posted by uste_13:
SAC -5.0 (my bookie)
SAC -5.0 (my bookie)
FATIGUE FACTOR - CLE is winded up for sure. 4th game in 5 days. Played against LAL last night and was given a blowout. PLUS SAC rested and fumed to win coming from being given a blowout too. SAC NEEDS this win to get going again.
Nonetheless, whatever your picks, may it be the Seattle Supersonics, BEST OF LUCK!
already on sac
. i also read the news about them moving to seattle.. such a shame. sucks to a city that does everything to keep them there. all about 
Posted:
#3580
Quote Originally Posted by washhead:
I'm taking Dallas -6.5 (0-1 yesterday, 4-4 on this thread). As noted earlier, Minnesota has been playing poorly without Adelman on the sidelines, and tonight is their fourth game in five nights (not their third in four like I stated previously). The bench is weak -- getting Barea back helps, but if Lazar Hayward is called on for double-digit minutes like last night it's not a good sign. I'm checking at halftime for a possible 2H play on DAL as well, MIN has been outscored by 10 or more in the 2H of their last 4 games.
Dallas looks good with Dirk being worked back into the lineup, and DAL is actually above .500 at home despite their poor overall record. They should cover comfortably, although it may be close at the half.
I'm taking Dallas -6.5 (0-1 yesterday, 4-4 on this thread). As noted earlier, Minnesota has been playing poorly without Adelman on the sidelines, and tonight is their fourth game in five nights (not their third in four like I stated previously). The bench is weak -- getting Barea back helps, but if Lazar Hayward is called on for double-digit minutes like last night it's not a good sign. I'm checking at halftime for a possible 2H play on DAL as well, MIN has been outscored by 10 or more in the 2H of their last 4 games.
Dallas looks good with Dirk being worked back into the lineup, and DAL is actually above .500 at home despite their poor overall record. They should cover comfortably, although it may be close at the half.
Fits well with uste's theory.
Posted:
#3581
Quote Originally Posted by uste_13:
SAC -5.0 (my bookie)
SAC -5.0 (my bookie)
FATIGUE FACTOR - CLE is winded up for sure. 4th game in 5 days. Played against LAL last night and was given a blowout. PLUS SAC rested and fumed to win coming from being given a blowout too. SAC NEEDS this win to get going again.
Nonetheless, whatever your picks, may it be the Seattle Supersonics, BEST OF LUCK!
Posted:
#3584
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:
Digging in my personal life and if I'm rich or poor is not going to get you anywhere. Please stop with the praises and master crap too. I can hardly master my dog.
Digging in my personal life and if I'm rich or poor is not going to get you anywhere. Please stop with the praises and master crap too. I can hardly master my dog.
I'll tell you all you want to know or have to know if needed. I did make a little fortune through etrade as it was called back then and now and then I make something out of it again and again. It's called Trading Option those days and is based on basic knowledge of trading commodities, stocks and currencies against currencies. The trade can be done long term, short term or immediate terms (like 60 seconds). I wish the Covers would have a dedicated forum so I can open a thread to explain bit more.
So, this week I'll be opening a thread on the subject on Special Interest/Investment forum. You're all welcome
You are into Forex?
Posted:
#3587
You notice the games u want to use the fatigue. For example: cats 4-6 t wolves 3in4 and the cavs for example also have the RLM also... So u want to bet against the tired but the RLM says to bet the tired. If u know what I'm trying to get at. I usually stay the hell away and see if there is an edge in the totals
Posted:
#3588
Quote Originally Posted by uste_13:
Here's a little contribution of mine. Hope it helps
Here's a little contribution of mine. Hope it helps
For the past few days, I have been tallying and tailing games according to some "theories" I have learned on this thread, other threads and some personal observations. First I'll state and describe the theories, then I'll state the How to win part and lastly, the tally how it went the past few days (about a week). Please do note that the tally is not my standings/wagers, but rather the game results as a whole. I study the line and use these theories in choosing winners. If it wins then 1-0, it it loses, then 0-1.So here goes... (hope this doesn't confuse anyone )
)Reverse Line Movement Theory
This is when an (obvious) underdog and a (obvious) favorite is set-up in such a way that the line moved in favor of the favorite despite the heavy public betting on the favorite. They say that this line movement attracts the bettors to wager on the side which the line (movement) favors, so as to make Vegas "richer" by making the underdogs win/cover the game.
How to win? They say that betting on the underdogs makes winners most of the time. This is where the saying "fading the public" comes from.
The tally (4-3)
The TRAP Games
This is when a line is called "fishy."
For example, OKC@WAS +1.0
Obviously, people will jump on OKC, sleep, and then wake up as winners after the game. This is pretty self-explanatory. This are the type of lines where the spreads does not actually conform to what people perceive as fairly set spread. If the line stinks, then it's fishy indeed.
How to win? Go with the underdogs! WTF BUT WHY?!! Let's go back to the OKC@WAS +1.0. FOR VERY OBVIOUS REASONS, people will bet on OKC. If all turns out well, the consensus will show about 70%-90% of bets on this side. For you to understand this, let's say that you are the bookie. As the bookie, what side do you want to cover? The favorites?..then pay them ALL the BIG BETS they wagered? Or have the dogs win and get that 70%-90% bets from the public?
The tally (4-1)
Fatigue Factor Theory
This is when a team is playing its 4th game in 5 days, 5th game in 7 days,etc. This also applies to 4 road games back to back. Well, you get the picture. When one team is rested, and the other is winded up, expect for a let down.
How to win? Well, go for the rested ones. Simple. This Theory is tricky, but (personally) effective. Look for teams that have played 4 games in 5 days. Look also for those teams that played 2OT the night before...those that played with the MIA, OKC and LAC in 3 days straight..even a well rested WAS will kill any team that is fatigued.
The tally (5-0)
The theories stated above are NOT FACTS and does not apply to ALL games. OKC are called road warriors and the fatigue theory wont make you winners against this team. RLM does not work all the time, favorites are called favorites because they can crash teams if they wanted to. And lastly, TRAP games may not be a trap after all. But if used wisely and backed up with a good mind, I'm pretty sure that every now and then, these will make some of us winners.
BOL TO ALL!
p.s. Thanks MAVIN
This has got to be the nicest post I have read on this forum- assuming the math is correct. I personally use a lot of the TTG and FFT factor-
I will add another thing to look out for is the Hot and Cold streaks and how long they last for certain teams- I took a guess that after the super hot streak the clippers were in was snapped that it would take them at least two games to get back on track because winning all those games takes alot of effort- so when they played fast moving teams like the nuggets and warriors they lost- while i see them beating the clips i think the following game against the rockets who are in funk will be a high scoring and difficult game.
Posted:
#3590
Quote Originally Posted by uste_13:
SAC -5.0 (my bookie)
SAC -5.0 (my bookie)
FATIGUE FACTOR - CLE is winded up for sure. 4th game in 5 days. Played against LAL last night and was given a blowout. PLUS SAC rested and fumed to win coming from being given a blowout too. SAC NEEDS this win to get going again.
Nonetheless, whatever your picks, may it be the Seattle Supersonics, BEST OF LUCK!
I have this as part of my teaser and parlay- last night against the lakers was a tough high scoring lots of running around game- it will depend on the 3pt accuracy of the kings.
I will point out the kings did have a good lead on the Mavs a couple of days ago and ended up losing in OT The Heat were just out for blood after their loss in portland so I was feeling sorry for anything that played them next-
Posted:
#3594
My picks for the day...
Grizzlies -2 3.3u to win 3
b2b games for the Clippers on the road against a very good home team.
Paul is doubtful to play tonight, thats why the line change.
Over Magic, 9 games in a row hitting the over, both teams have an over record at home (wizards) on the road (magic).
Magic, just don't think the Wizards can keep up with the Magic better record for the Magic on the road than Wizards at home, second game for Wall, plus the line movement, public on the Wizards and the line move from -2.5 to -2.
Celtics -4, yhey are playing much better since they snap a 4 game losing streak, don't think the Bobcats cover at 4.
Mavericks, Dirk playing better after each game, Dallas is complete and Twolves with a lot of injuries and without their coach, dont think the Twolves could win tonight in b2b.
Another leans are
Kings and over Kings.
Maybe Jazz
Keep doing my research for this games.
Grizzlies -2 3.3u to win 3
b2b games for the Clippers on the road against a very good home team.
Paul is doubtful to play tonight, thats why the line change.
Over Magic, 9 games in a row hitting the over, both teams have an over record at home (wizards) on the road (magic).
Magic, just don't think the Wizards can keep up with the Magic better record for the Magic on the road than Wizards at home, second game for Wall, plus the line movement, public on the Wizards and the line move from -2.5 to -2.
Celtics -4, yhey are playing much better since they snap a 4 game losing streak, don't think the Bobcats cover at 4.
Mavericks, Dirk playing better after each game, Dallas is complete and Twolves with a lot of injuries and without their coach, dont think the Twolves could win tonight in b2b.
Another leans are
Kings and over Kings.
Maybe Jazz
Keep doing my research for this games.
Posted:
#3595
Quote Originally Posted by ocer12:
Wow RLM in the lac mem o/u gotta do more research but if there's no injury's to report then there's something wrong with that sushi OL 184.5 now it's 180.5 with heavy support on the over
Wow RLM in the lac mem o/u gotta do more research but if there's no injury's to report then there's something wrong with that sushi OL 184.5 now it's 180.5 with heavy support on the over
Second teaser for today
I saw this too added this to a $5 to win $40 8-1 teaser for now...
7 Team Teaser 6, 6½, 7 pts Football & 5½, 6,6½ pts Basketball
01/14/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA
[707] LA CLIPPERS +9-110 (B+5½)
01/14/2013 @ 08:05 PM NBA
[707] TOTAL o174½-110 (B+5½)
(LA CLIPPERS vrs MEMPHIS)
01/14/2013 @ 08:35 PM NBA
[710] DALLAS -1-110 (B+5½)
01/14/2013 @ 09:05 PM NBA
[711] MIAMI +2½-110 (B+5½)
01/14/2013 @ 09:05 PM NBA
[713] OKLAHOMA CITY +½-110 (B+5½)
01/14/2013 @ 09:05 PM NBA
[714] TOTAL u205½-110 (B+5½)
(OKLAHOMA CITY vrs PHOENIX)
01/14/2013 @ 10:05 PM NBA
[716] SACRAMENTO +½-110 (B+5½)
Posted:
#3596
Nice post Uste_13... You'd be a king if you could update those records weekly or so!
As far as tonights games go, I would be wary of applying too much weight to the 'Fatigue Factor'. Both Minnesota and Cleveland were on the short end of blowouts last night, and both benches got lots of minutes (Cavs starters averaged just 25 mins last night..). My caution here is supported by the RLM's (although they are small, they are not insignificant) suggesting value in both of the 'fatigued' teams. While I won't subscribe to being 'Due' as a sound theory, I do believe that there will be no perfect record in any one theory -- basically, not every team that plays its 4th game in 5 days will lose that 4th game...Will monitor the changes in both of these lines throughout the day.
As far as tonights games go, I would be wary of applying too much weight to the 'Fatigue Factor'. Both Minnesota and Cleveland were on the short end of blowouts last night, and both benches got lots of minutes (Cavs starters averaged just 25 mins last night..). My caution here is supported by the RLM's (although they are small, they are not insignificant) suggesting value in both of the 'fatigued' teams. While I won't subscribe to being 'Due' as a sound theory, I do believe that there will be no perfect record in any one theory -- basically, not every team that plays its 4th game in 5 days will lose that 4th game...Will monitor the changes in both of these lines throughout the day.
Posted:
#3597
Quote Originally Posted by Turbovtk:
Early lines for parlay that I am looking at no decisions yet...
Early lines for parlay that I am looking at no decisions yet...
NFL
1. SAN FRANCISCO -3 - 1 /20 /13 @ 12:00:00
NFL
6. NEW ENGLAND -9 - 1 /20 /13 @ 15:30:00
NBA
10. WASHINGTON -2 - 1 /14 /13 @ 16:05:00
NBA
12. BOSTON -11 - 1 /14 /13 @ 16:35:00
NBA
14. CHICAGO -4 - 1 /14 /13 @ 17:05:00
NBA
15. LA CLIPPERS +2 - 1 /14 /13 @ 17:05:00
NBA
18. DALLAS -7 - 1 /14 /13 @ 17:35:00
NBA
19. MIAMI -3 - 1 /14 /13 @ 18:05:00
NBA
21. OKLAHOMA CITY -6 - 1 /14 /13 @ 18:05:00
NBA
24. SACRAMENTO -6 - 1 /14 /13
This list may be cut down or some picks selected as individuals.
I feel Strong about CLIPS MIA OKC the others still need to read more later today. This are lines of a parlay card which do not allow for a push needs to be a win because a push=loss.
That being said I may be doing some of this on money lines.
CLIPS need a bounce back win after their last loss, Memphis started the year by losing to the CLIPS 92-101 at LAC, then went on to win like 8 straight games including warriors, jazz, bucks, rockets, heat, thunder, knicks most of those by 10 points to 18 points. I have no idea why they are a dog on this one but I ll be biting on this.
MIA seems to be getting back on track and as good as Utah is they play better against teams that play more of a half court 3 pt game like the spurs etc. I think MIA can tire them out- Last year Utah beat MIA on a close game I see this as a payback game both games were were/are in Utah. MIA already beat them in MIA this year by a good margin +16.
OKC on their last meeting with the Suns they at OKC they won by 18 I I think buying 2pts here making it -3 is a good bet for me- I also expect this to be a high scoring game-
That brings me to the overs-I am looking at some of these and they will mostly depend on 3pt shooting teams hitting or not hitting like on the last game today cars v. kings- and okc v. suns.
Added/placed this for $1 to win $600
will review later
Posted:
#3600
Any thoughts on the PHO/OKC game? I was looking at this all day.
The line opened at 8 reports Covers (6 on my books) and even with 75% of the public is on OKC, the line dropped to 5 and is not budging. Both teams are coming off 5 games in the last 7 days. Suns just got a big win to end their losing streak in CHI and OKC is coming off of one of their lowest scoring nights.
Their last meeting on 12/31 was 114 OKC - 96 OKC for a total of 210. Phoenix is playing without Jared Dudley and OKC has Serge Ibaka and Sefolosha (two great defenders questionable).
If I'm reading the Totals correct on Scores&Odds correctly, 70%+ is on the over yet the total starts dropping.
At first my thoughts were maybe PHX +5 due to the line movement (just like what we saw with the PTL last night vs OKC), but I'm starting to think maybe under 200.5 is the play. Possibly seeing a close game full of sloppy jump shooting since both teams are playing 5 games in 7 days with the game coming down to the wire fluctuating around 6-8.
Debating on maybe an under play or a teaser of PHX + points and Under + Points?
Thoughts? Are there better games out there tonight?
The line opened at 8 reports Covers (6 on my books) and even with 75% of the public is on OKC, the line dropped to 5 and is not budging. Both teams are coming off 5 games in the last 7 days. Suns just got a big win to end their losing streak in CHI and OKC is coming off of one of their lowest scoring nights.
Their last meeting on 12/31 was 114 OKC - 96 OKC for a total of 210. Phoenix is playing without Jared Dudley and OKC has Serge Ibaka and Sefolosha (two great defenders questionable).
If I'm reading the Totals correct on Scores&Odds correctly, 70%+ is on the over yet the total starts dropping.
At first my thoughts were maybe PHX +5 due to the line movement (just like what we saw with the PTL last night vs OKC), but I'm starting to think maybe under 200.5 is the play. Possibly seeing a close game full of sloppy jump shooting since both teams are playing 5 games in 7 days with the game coming down to the wire fluctuating around 6-8.
Debating on maybe an under play or a teaser of PHX + points and Under + Points?
Thoughts? Are there better games out there tonight?
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