Posted:
#1101
Hi , I belong to multiple sports books and found the Kentucky line at 152 at Draft Kings, 154 1/2 at 5 others. I may have missed if you ever said what book you use?
Falcon Sports (The Grand Challenge)
Posted:
#1104
Oh the ebb and flow of how things go in the betting world.
One thing I'd look for, if u ever see someone or something thats hitting a very high rate once u pass 30 plays max, u better fade.
There is no one or no thing that can hit 60% over 1000 plays. Let me repeat this, there is no one or no thing that can hit 60% Winners against a (-110) line over 1000 plays. This is a hill that i will die on.
I challenge anyone in the betting world to disprove this statement.
It is a Mathematical impossibility, so remember that as u watch your favorite sports predictor on YouTube or Twitter.
If u think it can be done, step right up to (The Grand Challenge).
This thread is still winning at right at 70%, that is not going to last, no way, no how.
At best u could hope we go (4-3) over every 7 plays, so u can make money while you drop.
This thread may end at (30-20) 60% Winners and that would be great but it also means that we are going (5-9) the rest of the way. Now that's food for thought.
Wife is driving and I'm headed to Tunica for this 2 day battle.
Catch u guys later today with Play #38.
Falcon Sports
Posted:
#1107
Quote Originally Posted by MITM:
Oh the ebb and flow of how things go in the betting world. One thing I'd look for, if u ever see someone or something thats hitting a very high rate once u pass 30 plays max, u better fade. There is no one or no thing that can hit 60% over 1000 plays. Let me repeat this, there is no one or no thing that can hit 60% Winners against a (-110) line over 1000 plays. This is a hill that i will die on. I challenge anyone in the betting world to disprove this statement. It is a Mathematical impossibility, so remember that as u watch your favorite sports predictor on YouTube or Twitter. If u think it can be done, step right up to (The Grand Challenge). This thread is still winning at right at 70%, that is not going to last, no way, no how. At best u could hope we go (4-3) over every 7 plays, so u can make money while you drop. This thread may end at (30-20) 60% Winners and that would be great but it also means that we are going (5-9) the rest of the way. Now that's food for thought. Wife is driving and I'm headed to Tunica for this 2 day battle. Catch u guys later today with Play #38. Falcon Sports
Oh the ebb and flow of how things go in the betting world. One thing I'd look for, if u ever see someone or something thats hitting a very high rate once u pass 30 plays max, u better fade. There is no one or no thing that can hit 60% over 1000 plays. Let me repeat this, there is no one or no thing that can hit 60% Winners against a (-110) line over 1000 plays. This is a hill that i will die on. I challenge anyone in the betting world to disprove this statement. It is a Mathematical impossibility, so remember that as u watch your favorite sports predictor on YouTube or Twitter. If u think it can be done, step right up to (The Grand Challenge). This thread is still winning at right at 70%, that is not going to last, no way, no how. At best u could hope we go (4-3) over every 7 plays, so u can make money while you drop. This thread may end at (30-20) 60% Winners and that would be great but it also means that we are going (5-9) the rest of the way. Now that's food for thought. Wife is driving and I'm headed to Tunica for this 2 day battle. Catch u guys later today with Play #38. Falcon Sports
Correct, you have to bring in a stock market mindset here.....don't get caught on FOMO (fear of missing out), wait for the range to bottom so hopefully, you are working with the reverse tide going out ....BUT AGREE, trust the math and analytics you do with it over the long haul 
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#1111
I'm going to have to play and post Play #38 now.
Army Over 27.5
I'm at The Gold Strike but I have to get my mother n law to Hollywood. She has $250 in free play burning a hole in her pocket.
I made a very large wager on this, more than the Kentucky game.
I'll adjust the amount for The Grand Challenge
This is Play #38 in The Grand Challenge
I'll be back tonight with an update and ill have Play #39.
Good luck guys
Falcon Sports
Posted:
#1117
Double up time and if that doesn't come in ARMY, I think it will confirm your selection process is flawed when you have 5 plays or more to narrow down
For the first time, I am looking at you sideways and wondering something, you did some today for the first time in one of your threads and if anyone can spot, you will recognize that there are signs, you system and how you bet and share your info might be cracking....
Let's see if anyone or you yourself, can spot what I noticed today in your posting info....cheers
Thanks for this thread....I love it, but Falcon is on a cold streak-regression period and it happens
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Posted:
#1123
Quote Originally Posted by yanks21x:
@Last2thirst The obvious would be he chasing with a large bet?
@Last2thirst The obvious would be he chasing with a large bet?
Yes. He took the 154.5 Over when doing his analysis, but remember, he ends up with at least 5-10 potential plays/options on a Friday night...going into a Saturday
So why take the 154.5 OVER and jump at it?
The line drops......he gets 5 more points on the drop when he arrives in Tunica. Now he increases his bet by more than 8 x??? WTF?
He is a pro, but I am pretty much a pro when it comes to horse racing (35 yrs of doing it and successful most years and play with a $200+ stack always)......if I see a horse of mine going UP in odds, I don't press 8x my original bet on it, IF I visually see the horses on the track and some look ready to go and fired up without being sweaty and bothered.....if I smell something on the tote board is off, I do not up my $100 - $200 bet at 2-1 to now bet $800 - $1200 at 5-1....not good money management
Its not my money, but, I trust his system of math, not his selection process right now when he is on a 3 loss streak......
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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