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AussieCapper NBA (Box Score System)

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Posts: 1170

BigSquirrel_7

Prospect

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 292

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 5:56 PM ET #801

Quote Originally Posted by AussieCapper:

Minnesota vs Orlando

Minnesota 26 27 19 23 95

Orlando 27 28 23 23 101

My Lines

Orlando -6

Over/Under 196

Real Lines

Orlando -5.5

Over/Under 189.5

Bet: Over 189.5

Hey Aussie... Great hit yesterday!!!

Sunday was one of the most difficult I have handicapped in the NBA ( 2-4 ) and dismissed this thread unfortunately

because I only saw 5 days of picks with your system and a hell of a first day Jan. 8th (10-1... WOW! )

This is what I'm not understanding though.

A) Quarter's averages are always going to equal totals averages so why do you break it down?

B) How are you getting your point totals because for example this season to date:

Minnesota PPG on the road: 96.8

Orlando PPG @ home: 95.1

( Minnesota -2 )

Total = 191.9

ALL GAMES stats

Minnesota PPG: 96.3

Orlando PPG: 92.9

( Minnesota -3 )

Total = 189.2

Your picks all look good today ( however you are doing it ) with the exception of Golden State over Phoenix.

Paddington

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 525

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 6:01 PM ET #802

Quote Originally Posted by AussieCapper:

I only play one not the other

I would have thought the over play was better than the spread here. Large spreads can easily be missed through the back door cover, whereas once an over is in there is no going back. AC your stats are a winner. My one suggestion, if you're interested, would be to offer the stats and let people decipher their own plays, such as in this game (as they are pretty obvious). Will be very interesting to see which if any (or both) hit in this particular game as both are very strong leans. GL from Sydney....

shysty

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 46

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 6:06 PM ET #803

crice014

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2012

Posts: 16

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 6:09 PM ET #804

**ATTENTION!**

IF YOU TAKE THESE PICKS YOUR BANK WILL BE BROKEN!!

Ive been following Aussie for a while now and nothing against ya Aussie you've been killing it lately! However there are a couple of factors that I do not think you accounted for in tonight's game, and eventually everyone's system goes cold. (Feel free to bash this post and talk shit like several of you make a living out of.) My system has a backbone and can take the flak cuz it is solid.

Here is where I feel differently :

Dallas -4.5

under 187.5

Charlotte +12.5

under 179.5

Utah/New Orleans

over 184.5

Milwaukee +6.5

over 200.5

Phoenix +4.5

Minnesota +5.5

under 189.5

ovacs

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2012

Posts: 40

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 6:19 PM ET #805

Just the way you registered to tell him he's full of shit. I just registered to return the favor. You are an idiot.

Quote Originally Posted by crice014:

**ATTENTION!**

IF YOU TAKE THESE PICKS YOUR BANK WILL BE BROKEN!!

Here is where I feel differently :

Dallas -4.5

under 187.5

Charlotte +12.5

under 179.5

Utah/New Orleans

over 184.5

Milwaukee +6.5

over 200.5

Phoenix +4.5

Minnesota +5.5

under 189.5

BigSquirrel_7

Prospect

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 292

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 6:25 PM ET #806

Quote Originally Posted by BigSquirrel_7:

Your picks all look good today ( however you are doing it ) with the exception of Golden State over Phoenix.

Ope.. well actually that one looks OK too. I thought GS was playing at Phoenix

Svern002

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 990

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 6:25 PM ET #807

Quote Originally Posted by crice014:

**ATTENTION!**

IF YOU TAKE THESE PICKS YOUR BANK WILL BE BROKEN!!

Here is where I feel differently :

Dallas -4.5

under 187.5

Charlotte +12.5

under 179.5

Utah/New Orleans

over 184.5

Milwaukee +6.5

over 200.5

Phoenix +4.5

Minnesota +5.5

under 189.5

He is right ! His system takes other variables into account. Just watch this system is going to be a hit if used correctly. Crice014 knows what he is doing and you guys are going to be shocked 11-0 night !!! DoNKS-

Get your Chickens Right

JKirch

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 35

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 6:47 PM ET #808

AC,

I appreciate the work and the system picks
Keep killing it sir, Lets get that

tommyd222

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2009

Posts: 2275

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 6:55 PM ET #809

NGU

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 6207

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 7:04 PM ET #810

Sal_Tessio

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 1191

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 7:52 PM ET #811

Thanks for all the hard work, AC.

Can someone please explain something to me.

Why break it down quarter-by-quarter? Wouldn't taking each team's full game average work out exactly the same? I'm lost here.

Also, does this system take into account key players who have been out due to injury, or key players who may be returning FROM an injury, which would have skewed the numbers from recent games without him?

xt0mat0sx

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 22

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 8:08 PM ET #812

What are his stats so far?

powerade

MVP

Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 18254

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 8:57 PM ET #813

This has tout written all over it with all the random covers posters with the "good work aussie" posts.

thebestpicks

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 1244

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 9:19 PM ET #814

1 down! AC!

thebestpicks

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 1244

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 9:20 PM ET #815

the philly play looks off! no worries! 1-1!

Paddington

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 525

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 9:23 PM ET #816

First two overs hit. Re my comments about the large spread on PHI, seems like the over was the safer play as the stats discrepancy was just as large but back door covers often seem to happen.

Following your stats (as opposed to picks) with v small wagers to date....

Sal_Tessio

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 1191

Posted: Feb. 13, 2012 - 9:27 PM ET #817

I just hit the Philly over and the Orlando over based on the numbers. I never would have played either game otherwise.

I still think using this system while adding in other factors would be magical. I'd like to see injuries accounted for, as well as teams who might have tired legs. Utah tonight, for example. They gutted out a tough win in Memphis last night, so they are struggling with the shitty Hornets tonight as a result.