My new Bowl betting cheat sheet

I think you're right, Sunny.

I took a small bite on the over. 

Right now, it tastes bitter.

G8- Hard to lay off the championship game. Like not betting the super bowl

Joe-

I think you hit the nail on the head with the first two.  Coaching and motivation are key in the bowl games.

I wrote it in another post, but if the Fiesta and Rose Bowls were playoff games, I think the dynamics would change.

As for the ND/LSU - Louisville covered today, but taking essentially a  two-possession favorite is not something that has fared too well this bowl season.

Great additions, guys, thanks.

Linde, I tihink one thing that trips me up in any sport is overthinking it.  I've been in season-long contests now for a couple of years, and I've noticed that when I have more time on my hands to really rack my brain about the board for some reason it becomes like trying to pick up toothpicks with mittens on.  But when I have more things going on, for me, my picks tend to come easier and I do better.  I think this is because I'm not ripping a game apart down to its last detail--but that's me, some people I know need to spend time looking over every last shred of evidence before it all falls into place.  Neither is a better way, I'm just saying that for me when I over-think it, it's a problem.

That's what your turnover thing said to me, same with your point about games that didn't make any sense.  Funny thing about two of those is, I took both Navy and Penn. St. in bowl pools simply because I wanted to bet them, but couldn't find a reason.  That was my way of taking a stand and betting them without betting them, ya know. 

But I agree with you, sometimes they just refuse to make sense.

Which leads me to the other thing I've gotten out of this year and that's that I played way too many games.  I'm OK with that because it's taught me a lot, but looking back, I realize there were 32 games (funny how there are now 32 bowl games and 32 opening round games in March Madness, isn't it?), but I really probably should have had no more than eight plays or so in this season.

We say this every year, but just because the game is on TV and you're home from work doesn't mean you have to bet on it.  Nobody listens to that statement all the time, myself included, but it's the truth and Bowl  season's the worst.  It's so easy, they're all on TV, some holiday money would be great, blah, blah, blah--the next thing you know, you've got God knows how much on some school you know nothing about.

That's the trick, I think.  First is narrowing it down--a process in which you may discard an eventual winner or two, but so long as you discard more losers, or games you shouldn't be involved with anyway, the better off you'll be.  Then making sure you're not getting sucked in just for the sake of having action.

Weird thing about how many games to bet, though--and he may hate me for doing this, but he'll get over it and he's the easiest example that comes to mind because his thread was so self-contained--but if you look at someone like Vanzack for example.  He had a sort of one half to two unit menu to choose from.  Had he only bet the big plays, I  think he actually might have finished down instead of up because (and this is from memory, so forgive me if it's off), I believe the smaller plays cashed more regulary than the big ones.

So there's this fine line of, 'OK, these are the ones that fit my criteria, that I feel I want/should bet, now how many of the smaller, maybe riskier, or gut-calls do I want to play as well?'

Because the weird thing is, whether you miss them when you 'cap them, or whether something goes totally against you during the game that you could not have predicted, you could end up losing games you felt great about and then kicking yourself for not taking a couple of shots on smaller things that then came in.  Of course, conversely, you could win your big ones and have your profit nibbled back by your smaller riskier plays.