Posted:
#226
Doc,
You are right TY Law was a big factor.
Rodney Harrison playing could make up the difference.
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MRBator You might want to read this
Posted:
#227
OK Bator I have been trying to see a kink in your armor all week & I tell you it has been tough. Yet the only thing I think you may be missing is that you think the Pats will employ a similar game plan as they did against the Chargers. Hang in the game & hope to be it in the 4th Qtr. This may happen if the Indy strikes first & keeps pushing yet you have to give the Pats more credit than that.
Balt & KC had horrible game plans & continued to ram the ball trying to force the run. The Pats will not do this & probably spread the field early knowing they need to strike first. Even in the spread they will run as much as pass to neutralize Indy's " 8man in the box" D. If this happens early the chances of Indy getting tight are greater than if the Pats get down early.
Every other way I agree with your points 95% 
This game will not be a blow out as some here think
GL
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Posted:
#228
anyone have any thoughts on why they're not moving off -3? every book has -3 with -125 or -120 juice? i like the colts, and so does everyone else, so why wouldn't they move it up to -3.5? you'd think vegas would move the line up to entice NE money. i see the 56% on the colts (wagerline) and 68% (sportsbook) blah, blah BUT i read every post on this friggin website and everyone is predicting a Colts vs. Saints Super Bowl. something has to give here. any thoughts would be appreciated.
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Posted:
#229
Quote Originally Posted by afrolovv:
Amazing how two very astute, very experienced gamblers can be on such diametrically opposite sides of this game. Mr. B. is extremely confident in the Colts, making them (possibly) the largest wager of the entire season and giving them a 95% probability of winning the game outright...and then Tom here, gambling on sports for 30 years and supporting himself with his gambling winnings for the last 14 years, making a statement like the one above!
What's a rank amateur like myself supposed to do??
Hmmm, pass?
yeah Tom is a great capper 200+ posts mostly from this thread. anyone who would mention my use dominate instead of dominant tells me alot about him.
Quote Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:
You are right TY Law was a big factor.
Rodney Harrison playing could make up the difference.
Last i heard rodney harrison wasnt playing but he doesnt matter if he does play it would only help indy, the guy is injured. I hope he plays
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Posted:
#231
Quote Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:
Even though I posted that trend on Monday, I have continued to work
on both games this weekend.
I had started out liking the Pats and as the week progressed the
New England pick became stronger and stronger.
I have been waiting for the last chip to fall before deciding
on how much to bet on the Pats.
Well the last chip fell and it fell the way I was hoping.
I had $9730 in may account and I went $3000 on NE +3 Even and
$6730 on Ne +140 ML.
I have been gambling for thirty years and supporting myself
by gambling since 1992.
If I know ANYTHING about sports betting, New England wins
this game outright.
If I reload and bet the NFC Championship I will post it here.
What if they don't win? Do you mean to say that a loss will mean you know nothing?
Tom, you must pick more than your share of winners, because I myself could not have made much of a living betting on sports had I made a habit of settling for bad numbers. What are you doing with lousy prices like +3 EVEN and +140 on the moneyline? Those are both awful. Plus 3 +105 and +155 are both widely available, so what's up? For those that support themselves through gambling, there is no excuse for not making the bookie pay the max every time. Tom, if you had your cash riding on the attainable prices of +3 +105 and +155, that'd be an extra $1,159.50 in your pocket! That's huge!! No one can afford to concede that much value when they're depending on this for their livelihood. I don't care how much money someone has.
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Posted:
#232
Quote Originally Posted by snakebit:
I have been following Bator's picks for awhile, and agree he has been hot. However, he has been expressing his desire to fade the Chargers since week 14, and I think he has substituted the Pats for his Chargers, and stuck with his fade.
Also, he stated Indy would win the AFC before the Pats-Chargers game kicked off. The sub-par play of both teams strengthened his pick of Indy.
One last point: There is a lot of talk about how Brady will not have 2 bad games in a row. The same should be said of Manning. He is back home, in the dome, where he feels most comfortable.
Great thread. I'm leaning towards a small play on Indy.
snakebit, that sentence I highlighted is true enough, but the much more important factor that sealed it for me was seeing the Colts defense play extremely well for the second week in a row. I was ready to take Indy in the AFC title game even with their bad defense, but now that they're no longer playing poorly, but instead playing very well, I'm very excited.
Oftentimes I start out loving a game at the beginning of the week before I begin finding reasons to temper my enthusiasm. Not this time. I am loving the Colts more and more. If gameday arrives and Patriots bettors actually drive the line down, I will go beyond 100K.
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Posted:
#233
Bator,
Exactly. After so many years I find the greatness of Pinny and a month later they close ( unbleievable timing how i won a bunch, cashed out via e-check, then they close that too...)
Anyway, I am serious about this, what do we do? I hear Vegas sucks for betting decent amounts...
Just haven't heard your comments on all that has gone down recently, it is very depressing for someone who wants to pursue their dream like you have...
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Posted:
#235
Quote Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:
Mr. B,
You advice has made me money this year and I feel I owe
it to you to give you fair warning on your Colts play versus the Pats.
There is a trend going in the post season that says the Pats are the play.
The trend is this:
If the teams playing have faced eachother during the regular season play as follows.
Two pointspread wins= play the team that has covered twice.
Split two meetings against the spread= play the team that failed to
cover the most recent meeting.
Played each other once= play the team that failed to cover.
This system is perfect this year (NYG +6.5 vs Philly, NE -9 vs Jets, Philly +5 vs New Orleans,
and Seattle +9 versus Chicago.
It was also a perfect 4-0 last year.
I know you are not a trend player and you are a MUCH better handicapper
than me but I want a clear conscience(?) before I bet against you
Tom
Thanks again for everything
Tom's post above is the post that began this thread, and shame on me for not catching this until four days later. According to Tom, his trend, which is 4-0 this postseason, also went 4-0 last postseason. Except that it didn't. Last season, the Broncos won and covered over a team in Denver during their one and only regular season meeting, and then won and covered against them again in the playoffs. The team that Denver beat twice? The New England Patriots.
Sunday, October 16, 2005 - Denver -3 over New England
Denver 28
New England 20
Saturday, January 14th - Denver -3 over New England
Denver 27
New England 13
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Posted:
#236
dont forget the guys like me that used to live in n ythat still know how to cap games
i have the saints going all the way and i like many people on these threads and mr Bator but iamhirtiing this fucker
| 10 Team PARLAY $ at 01/17/2007 17:10 Odds : 42.58 to 1 |
PARLAY COMMITTED |
$ | |||
| 01/17/2007 19:00 | CB ML-AKRON to Win Even(-360) ML-KENT STATE 68 ML-AKRON 78 status : WIN |
||||
| 01/17/2007 19:00 | CB ML-NORTH CAROLINA to Win Even(-200) ML-NORTH CAROLINA 77 ML-CLEMSON 55 status : WIN |
||||
| 01/17/2007 19:00 | CB ML-ILLINOIS to Win Even(-270) ML-ILLINOIS 64 ML-MINNESOTA 52 status : WIN |
||||
| 01/17/2007 19:00 | CB ML-VILLANOVA to Win Even(-210) ML-NOTRE DAME 87 ML-VILLANOVA 102 status : WIN |
||||
| 01/17/2007 19:30 | CB ML-GEO WASHINGTON to Win Even(-420) ML-GEO WASHINGTON 63 ML-RICHMOND 58 status : WIN |
||||
| 01/17/2007 19:30 | CB ML-GEORGETOWN to Win Even(-600) ML-GEORGETOWN 68 ML-RUTGERS 54 status : WIN |
||||
| 01/17/2007 19:30 | CB ML-MIAMI OHIO to Win Even(-550) ML-BOWLING GREEN 60 ML-MIAMI OHIO 66 status : WIN |
||||
| 01/17/2007 20:00 | CB ML-MICHIGAN to Win Even(-400) ML-PENN ST 57 ML-MICHIGAN 77 status : WIN |
||||
| 01/21/2007 15:05 | NFL ML-NEW ORLEANS to Win Even(+115) ML-NEW ORLEANS vs ML-CHICAGO |
||||
| 01/21/2007 18:35 | NFL ML-NEW ENGLAND to Win Even(+145) ML-NEW ENGLAND vs ML-INDIANAPOLIS |
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Posted:
#237
Mr bator made me some great sundays twice and vanzack threw a few in the mix once or twice but iam always perfect this time of year and have no plans on losing this ticket after the saints win i will hedge if i have too
Chicago is done this weekend and if brady does what he always does i got my saints at 8.5 - 1 to win the whole thing and over and out =
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Posted:
#240
Mr. B,
You are right Denver did cover twice against the Pats last year.
I also missed a of winner.
Here are last years stats:
Pitt DNC in regular season versus Cincy then covered in the playoffs
Pitt DNC in regular season versus Indy then covered in the playoffs
Seattle DNC in regular season versus Washington then covered in the playoffs
Wash DNC in regular season versus TB then covered in the playoffs
Car DNC in regular season versus Chi then covered in the playoffs
So the Two year total is 9-1.
9-1, as in nine out of ten.
As in 90%.
As in one short of being perfect.
Excuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuussee me
I am taking my cuts with 9-1.
You have your Colt blinders on, I have my flu stricken Pats blinders on.
Now.................................LETS GET READY TO RUMMMBBBLLLE!!!!!!!!!!
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Posted:
#241
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
What if they don't win? Do you mean to say that a loss will mean you know nothing?
Tom, you must pick more than your share of winners, because I myself could not have made much of a living betting on sports had I made a habit of settling for bad numbers. What are you doing with lousy prices like +3 EVEN and +140 on the moneyline? Those are both awful. Plus 3 +105 and +155 are both widely available, so what's up? For those that support themselves through gambling, there is no excuse for not making the bookie pay the max every time. Tom, if you had your cash riding on the attainable prices of +3 +105 and +155, that'd be an extra $1,159.50 in your pocket! That's huge!! No one can afford to concede that much value when they're depending on this for their livelihood. I don't care how much money someone has.
What if they don't win? Do you mean to say that a loss will mean you know nothing?
Tom, you must pick more than your share of winners, because I myself could not have made much of a living betting on sports had I made a habit of settling for bad numbers. What are you doing with lousy prices like +3 EVEN and +140 on the moneyline? Those are both awful. Plus 3 +105 and +155 are both widely available, so what's up? For those that support themselves through gambling, there is no excuse for not making the bookie pay the max every time. Tom, if you had your cash riding on the attainable prices of +3 +105 and +155, that'd be an extra $1,159.50 in your pocket! That's huge!! No one can afford to concede that much value when they're depending on this for their livelihood. I don't care how much money someone has.
Mr. B,
I admit I am not much of a shopper, I do not have the patience.
I find a book I like and I stick with them and their (sometimes) lame lines.
Not sound financial planning, I agree but there are reasons you are betting
100K and I am betting 10K.
This is just one of them.
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Posted:
#242
Bator, you very well could be right and the Colts may win. I disagree but I will never ever be so confident in any pick i make where i will think no way the team i'm taking will lose. I'm just so surprised how you think this is a no brainer. I think NE is the better team. Enough of this "its indy's time" or "its peyton's time." I have yet to hear any good reasons as to take INdy. I've read all these posts trying to find out reasons why i should back of my play of NE. But all i hear is indy has the better team, its their time, and its peyton's time.
In the playoffs, Indy has had a hard time scoring touchdowns. NE has one of the best red zone defenses. NE has the 2nd best defense in terms of points allowed. Indy and NE played 3 common opponents in December with vastly different results. NE has by far played the better teams in the playoffs and have won both. There is a good chance NYJ would have beat the Colts if they played them in the 1st round.
Dec 3 Ind at Ten. Ten won 20-17. Tenn had 35 carries for 229 yards rushing
Dec 10th Ind at Jax. Jax won 44-17. Jax had 42 for 350 yards rushing
Dec 24th Ind at Hou. Hou won 27-24. Hou had 42 for 191 yards rushing.
Dec 17th Hou at NE. NE won 40-7
Dec 24th NE at JAX. NE won 24-21.
Dec 31st NE at Tenn. NE won 40-23.
Dec 10th Ind at Jax. Jax won 44-17. Jax had 42 for 350 yards rushing
Dec 24th Ind at Hou. Hou won 27-24. Hou had 42 for 191 yards rushing.
Dec 17th Hou at NE. NE won 40-7
Dec 24th NE at JAX. NE won 24-21.
Dec 31st NE at Tenn. NE won 40-23.
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Posted:
#243
Hawkeye
Don't bother with any stats but the last two weeks.
That's all Mr. B is looking at and the Jim Kelly?, uh no 
Dan Marino?, uh no Marty Schottemheimer?, uh no Fran Tarkenton?, uh no Bud Grant? ...Marv Levy? ....
Dan Marino?, uh no Marty Schottemheimer?, uh no Fran Tarkenton?, uh no Bud Grant? ...Marv Levy? ....Charles Barkley?...Karl Malone? ........wait! it's the Peyton Mannning is due theory.
...Karl Malone? ........wait! it's the Peyton Mannning is due theory.Just having a little fun Mr. B before I get wiped out.
Don't take it seriously 
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Posted:
#245
Hers is a little tune for all you Bator Backers(Which I am a proud member BTW)
C'mon everybody sing along!
Sung to the tune of L-O-V-E
P is for the way Peyton Manning Plays
A is for the way he always lays (an egg)
T is for three rings
S is for the way Dungy has hasn't won a thing
and PATS is all I can give you
PATS + the 3 will always pull you through
10-0 in domes is good for you
8-0 away from homes
12-1 when on the foam
PATS were made for me and you
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Posted:
#247
Quote Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:
Hers is a little tune for all you Bator Backers(Which I am a proud member BTW)
C'mon everybody sing along!
Sung to the tune of L-O-V-E
P is for the way Peyton Manning Plays
A is for the way he always lays (an egg)
T is for three rings
S is for the way Dungy has hasn't won a thing
and PATS is all I can give you
PATS + the 3 will always pull you through
10-0 in domes is good for you
8-0 away from homes
12-1 when on the foam
PATS were made for me and you
Ok, I just doubled my wager on the Colts!
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