Posted:
#276
Quote Originally Posted by panther123:
You snooze you lose
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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MRBator You might want to read this
Posted:
#281
Tony, I also have been doing this for a long time.
The trends you mention are actually 2 of my system plays I have been logging for years.
1.Same season 2nd non - div revenge game
2.Same Season 2nd div revenge game
These 2 system plays work for me every year.Its solid!!!!!$$$
I just never like to follow it blindly.I always go back and re-cap the 1st game through play-by-play to see what happened Then cap both teams home or away games( whatever the case may be in the 2nd matchup ,home or away) since that 1st matchup . Then check my power ratings to see where both teams stand numericaly before the 2nd matchup. I also check some trends to see how a team fairs in same season revenge situations .Seattle was 9-1ats in SS rev situations.The most important thing was to cap the games. My cappin had them winning the game outright.They almost pulled it off. Same went for the Philly and the Giants game, only the Giants game fell under the catagorie,same season 2nd division revenge game.... where they excell.
I just never like to follow it blindly.I always go back and re-cap the 1st game through play-by-play to see what happened Then cap both teams home or away games( whatever the case may be in the 2nd matchup ,home or away) since that 1st matchup . Then check my power ratings to see where both teams stand numericaly before the 2nd matchup. I also check some trends to see how a team fairs in same season revenge situations .Seattle was 9-1ats in SS rev situations.The most important thing was to cap the games. My cappin had them winning the game outright.They almost pulled it off. Same went for the Philly and the Giants game, only the Giants game fell under the catagorie,same season 2nd division revenge game.... where they excell.
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Posted:
#283
Quote Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:
Mr. I,
does the following ring a bell?
Baltimore -4
This will not be a close game. This will be an outright thumping. I moved to Indy 4 months ago and have followed them this year. Therefore, no bias here. It is funny to listen to the locals. Last week, they all thought KC would run all over Indy and win the game. Now they think the Colts can win the Super Bowl. Nobody gives Baltimore any credit. Indy does not play well against two types of teams
Teams with good defenses
Teams that are physical
They are going to get pounced today
Just having some fun
Tom, if you are going to qoute me, quote the accuracy of my picks, something around 70 percent. Did not see my post that Cincy would upset Rutgers or my biggest play of Indy over Cincy, or several other top plays that came through.
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Posted:
#285
Mr. I,
I was felling alittle guilty so I went back and checked your posts.
You were right you had the Colts on December 17 which won.
You even followed that up with a winner on San Jose.
Unfortunately you followed San Jose with a thread saying how you could not see
Florida State winning their bowl game,(wrong), Oklahoma State running up the score
on Boise in the fourth quarter (wrong), Ohio State beating Florida by seventeen (wrong)
then your Raven pick.
I hope that is accurate enough.
Good luck tomorrow.
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Posted:
#287
Quote Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:
No offense Mr. I. but what part of your Baltimore pick was inaccurate?
When you post an opinion, you got to handle some rebuttals.
Come back to thread if New England loses and watch the pounding
I take.
I dont see why you'd take a beating. I totally see why you think the patroits will win, but i think your playing on old news/views as is every pats backer. this pats team isnt is strong as teams before you can look at the regular season records and say they better but seriously watching them play you can see who they are. "they are who we thought they were and we let them off the hook (SD) " "if you want to crown their asses then crown em" sorry it fit what i said i couldnt resist writing that, i love that post game press conference.
If indy chokes this game away they aint gonna be shit in the future. Windows of oppurtunity are only open for soo long, the sacramento Kings were my favorite team in B-ball years ago and they blew their oppurtunity and now they're dog shit.
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Posted:
#288
Quote Originally Posted by papageorgio:
I dont see why you'd take a beating. I totally see why you think the patroits will win, but i think your playing on old news/views as is every pats backer. this pats team isnt is strong as teams before you can look at the regular season records and say they better but seriously watching them play you can see who they are. "they are who we thought they were and we let them off the hook (SD) " "if you want to crown their asses then crown em" sorry it fit what i said i couldnt resist writing that, i love that post game press conference.
If indy chokes this game away they aint gonna be shit in the future. Windows of oppurtunity are only open for soo long, the sacramento Kings were my favorite team in B-ball years ago and they blew their
oppurtunity and now ty're dog shit.
Crown their asses we let them off the hook SD- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Posted:
#289
Quote Originally Posted by fseitun:
I wouldn't get very excited about a 90% winning trend on such a small sample size. Don't tell me that you seriously bet with trends whose sample size is as small as 10 games.
I actually would be worried about that trend being a "corrected" in the following games. Nothing is 100% over the long haul, mostly in the sportsbetting business where bookmakers have stats people specifically hired to track down all angles and trends so that once a good trend is discovered, lines are inflated accordingly and the trend dies.
If you like the Pats because of football factors, fair enough. If you like the Pats so-and-so and you decided to support your wager with the above-mentioned meaningless stat, I would probably lay off the game or hedge out my wager.
I wouldn't get very excited about a 90% winning trend on such a small sample size. Don't tell me that you seriously bet with trends whose sample size is as small as 10 games.
I actually would be worried about that trend being a "corrected" in the following games. Nothing is 100% over the long haul, mostly in the sportsbetting business where bookmakers have stats people specifically hired to track down all angles and trends so that once a good trend is discovered, lines are inflated accordingly and the trend dies.
If you like the Pats because of football factors, fair enough. If you like the Pats so-and-so and you decided to support your wager with the above-mentioned meaningless stat, I would probably lay off the game or hedge out my wager.
Feseit,
I WILL tell you I seriously bet them this year and I will tell you I am seriously 4-0
doing so.
It amazes me how many guys can't see the forest for the trees...the object of
gambling is to WIN not write a term paper.
Whatever it takes to win, period.
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Posted:
#290
Quote Originally Posted by fseitun:
I just can't see where the edge is on a 10-game sample size. If you see an edge there and you trust such a "large" sample, keep in mind that your 9-1 record over the last 2 years means nothing in in statistical terms, but maybe it could mean something when your sample size grows to at least 100 bets.
Hence, 20 years from now we'll see how the system has perfomed.
You might be onto something here.
I just can't see where the edge is on a 10-game sample size. If you see an edge there and you trust such a "large" sample, keep in mind that your 9-1 record over the last 2 years means nothing in in statistical terms, but maybe it could mean something when your sample size grows to at least 100 bets.
Hence, 20 years from now we'll see how the system has perfomed.
You might be onto something here.
Feitsun,
You are looking at the use of trends ass backwards (no offense, just an expression)
Trends are notoriously SHORT lived.
You use them until they expire, which they always do.
I have said this numerous times in this thread, even if New England
loses this trend still has provided four out of five winners.
A gambler can survive very nicely on eighty percent winners.
The same goes for Brady on turf 12-1 now, the worst it can be
after tomorrow is 12-2, Brady in domes 10-0 now, that worst it can be after tomorrow is 10-1,
Patriots as dogs (8-0), Patriots in Championship games(4-0), Patriots on
the road (8-1), Colts as home favorites to the Pats (0-12).
Maybe tomorrow EVERY one of these current trends falls flat.
I am betting they don't but even if they do, I have made a ton of
monet riding them up until this point.
One loss is not going to give back all the money made.
That is how you use trends, in th short run not long.
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Posted:
#294
Quote Originally Posted by goyals:
wish he would just post his picks in one thread, leave the discussions in another - just adds to the confusion of who has what......kind of ridiculous.......
Last I looked he wasnt on anyone's payroll so that makes him free
to do as he pleases.
Stay cool, 
he will make a definitive post before gametime tomorrow
he will make a definitive post before gametime tomorrow0
Posted:
#296
Quote Originally Posted by fseitun:
I wouldn't get very excited about a 90% winning trend on such a small sample size. Don't tell me that you seriously bet with trends whose sample size is as small as 10 games.
I actually would be worried about that trend being a "corrected" in the following games. Nothing is 100% over the long haul, mostly in the sportsbetting business where bookmakers have stats people specifically hired to track down all angles and trends so that once a good trend is discovered, lines are inflated accordingly and the trend dies.
If you like the Pats because of football factors, fair enough. If you like the Pats so-and-so and you decided to support your wager with the above-mentioned meaningless stat, I would probably lay off the game or hedge out my wager.
I wouldn't get very excited about a 90% winning trend on such a small sample size. Don't tell me that you seriously bet with trends whose sample size is as small as 10 games.
I actually would be worried about that trend being a "corrected" in the following games. Nothing is 100% over the long haul, mostly in the sportsbetting business where bookmakers have stats people specifically hired to track down all angles and trends so that once a good trend is discovered, lines are inflated accordingly and the trend dies.
If you like the Pats because of football factors, fair enough. If you like the Pats so-and-so and you decided to support your wager with the above-mentioned meaningless stat, I would probably lay off the game or hedge out my wager.
Im going to have to back Tony upon this one.
Its not a meaningless stat, but a solid system play that I have been keeping record of for 15 yrs, backed up with some solid capping..... or football factors as you call it. It's definetly 90%ats last 2 years, and yes a small sample size. So lets go back 4 years. It only drops to about 65-75%ats... not bad at all. Imagine not following this type of play on the blind and using some solid capping skills together with a proven Mathmatical overlay system to back the play up.Then your'e talking better than 90% over a larger sample size. This also includes div games where teams play each other twice a year. Hey...If your going to mention this type of play at all,why not include them all, and the catagorie they all fall under.
Trend ?...Never liked the word trend for this type of play...lets use the word catagorie
There are 2 and only 2 catagories that these types of plays fall under;
1. Same Season 2nd Div Revenge game. (Div games only of course)
2. Same Season 2nd Non-Div Revenge game.(ie Philly @ N.O Seattle @ Chi etc )
Its solid the most underated
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Posted:
#297
I hit the submit button by accident.
Its soild without a doubt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!$$$$$$$
and the most underrated trend/system, (what ever the hell you want to call it) in the wagering world. Most people I talk to think if a team beats a team early in the season they will beat them again later in the season or in the playoffs.The question is ...will they cover the spread
and the most underrated trend/system, (what ever the hell you want to call it) in the wagering world. Most people I talk to think if a team beats a team early in the season they will beat them again later in the season or in the playoffs.The question is ...will they cover the spread- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Posted:
#298
Quote Originally Posted by TomCurtisNY:
Feseit,
I WILL tell you I seriously bet them this year and I will tell you I am seriously 4-0
doing so.
It amazes me how many guys can't see the forest for the trees...the object of
gambling is to WIN not write a term paper
Whatever it takes to win, period.
Good point!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
God Bless America
God Bless America The object of investing money on sports wagering is to make a profit $$$by seasons end
....its no game, but a serious buisness venture.
Tony, One thing I have noticed since joining covers. Most people on this site wear blinders.....not all but most. Thats why they can't see the forest for the tree's
GL on your plays Sunday- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Posted:
#299
Tony, One
thing I have noticed since joining covers. Most people on this site
wear blinders.....not all but most. Thats why they can't see the forest
for the tree's
guys - cut the crap - there was a thread opened up about him for god sake, and you guys want to call out those guys that dont cap? well a lot dont, they dont know how, they dont know the trends, they just dont have the time, so there is a new realm emerging, cap the capper - thats right, you, the guys that sit here night after night, debating who is gonna win or his not is all that matters......go ahead and bash me, but this is a trend, people flock from forum to forum to see who is playing what.........end of story - nothing to provide, more importantly nothing that they want to provide....it just amazes me that a site like covers would take the hit to see 1000 (yes i am exaggerating) NEW THREADS on calling mr bator and his plays, when they could put it one thread and lock it - but NO, this is business - keep it all in perspective............someone, somewhere is making money..........keep that in mind.....
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Posted:
#300
Quote Originally Posted by fseitun:
When I defined this trend meaningless I was referring to the small sample size of only 10 games over the last 2 years. If that is a good sample size for you as well, fine. It's not in my book and you may want to check it out with people more prepared on statistics.
As far as this trend combined with football technicals and making New England a stronger bet, that depends on whether the way you look at football points at a Patriots win. Which is very debatable and extremely subjective.
Lastly, I think this thread is primarily focused on who's gonna win the AFC regardless of spread. So if those stats you mentioned are ATS records, you should review them and come up with a SU record.
I guess people betting Indy have more reasons to back them up other than the fact that Colts already beat Pats in the regular season.
When I defined this trend meaningless I was referring to the small sample size of only 10 games over the last 2 years. If that is a good sample size for you as well, fine. It's not in my book and you may want to check it out with people more prepared on statistics.
As far as this trend combined with football technicals and making New England a stronger bet, that depends on whether the way you look at football points at a Patriots win. Which is very debatable and extremely subjective.
Lastly, I think this thread is primarily focused on who's gonna win the AFC regardless of spread. So if those stats you mentioned are ATS records, you should review them and come up with a SU record.
I guess people betting Indy have more reasons to back them up other than the fact that Colts already beat Pats in the regular season.
Thank you for the clarification.However, the thread is about the subject I just touched base on including many other subjects people want to turn it into or touch base on.I dont believe its primarily focused in on one subject matter.I also do not believe sample size is an issue unless the individual makes it an issue .I view matchups individualy as they come up on the schedule.If a play I wager on fits under a specific heading that has been logged in my book of records and has won me money in the past and it coinsides with my handicapping, then I will wager on it accordingly. If it turns out to be 9-1, 8-2 etc over 2 years then so be it.I never hang my handicapping on sample size /trends etc.When I wager on a game I wager ATS not SU.However, when I do chart the ATS records, SU records are always available .There will be no need to list them for viewing .I guess people betting Indy do have more reasons to back them up other than the fact that the Colts beat them in the reg season.Just as I have more reasons to back New England up other than the fact that NE got beat by the Colts in the reg season.
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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