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    All Forums | The Archives

    Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper

    «First Previous 899091 ... 567568569 Next Last»
    baronman
    ILPRATO
    pjrez
    scalabrine
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    baronman
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 5:25 PM ET #2201

    Quote Originally Posted by tdog25:

    From now on, document every line that closes at 3, 6, and 13 and watch the road dog cover, and then come in here and apologize to me at the end of the nba playoffs...Nobody begging bruh, don't be a kunt...baron man nobody gives shhitt about your picks, stop talking, nobody understands you...you're a piece of shiit and can't even make drinks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tdog25:

    From now on, document every line that closes at 3, 6, and 13 and watch the road dog cover, and then come in here and apologize to me at the end of the nba playoffs...Nobody begging bruh, don't be a kunt...baron man nobody gives shhitt about your picks, stop talking, nobody understands you...you're a piece of shiit and can't even make drinks.

     
    ILPRATO
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 5:31 PM ET #2202

    Just trying to be constructive.

    Buying a half point in basketball over the long run is a waste of money the odds that it lands on 3 is not worth laying the extra 10 cents in juice.


    Good luck
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    Just trying to be constructive.

    Buying a half point in basketball over the long run is a waste of money the odds that it lands on 3 is not worth laying the extra 10 cents in juice.


    Good luck
     
    baronman
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 5:35 PM ET #2203

    Tdog 25 had pull up your insult You are 1 messed up little kid I went back to your insult pages as far back weeks ago . You tell me you don't want my picks .On page 126 You said take Pacers/Thunder ^^204 You lost not even within 20 points .Again you throw that out without betting penny.Only when you bet like College , Goose,Van & countless others on here .None this 3,6,13 Theory . Then on page 125 You tell College give me shout out . You are little kid on here.I got class you see me cussing anyone on this site.Again this is betting site.I appreciate all picks & reasons .Again College thread not mine. So tdog25 start being mature & start over. I forgive You for your unwarranted insults. Anybody like my teaser out there. Just using College pick Michiganst & my own also Cavs.Out
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    Tdog 25 had pull up your insult You are 1 messed up little kid I went back to your insult pages as far back weeks ago . You tell me you don't want my picks .On page 126 You said take Pacers/Thunder ^^204 You lost not even within 20 points .Again you throw that out without betting penny.Only when you bet like College , Goose,Van & countless others on here .None this 3,6,13 Theory . Then on page 125 You tell College give me shout out . You are little kid on here.I got class you see me cussing anyone on this site.Again this is betting site.I appreciate all picks & reasons .Again College thread not mine. So tdog25 start being mature & start over. I forgive You for your unwarranted insults. Anybody like my teaser out there. Just using College pick Michiganst & my own also Cavs.Out
     
    pjrez
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 5:35 PM ET #2204

    Quote Originally Posted by The Hawk:

    So, you're saying 206-213 is NOT close to 63%?

    I'm shocked.

    Shocked, I tell you............
    I am surely disappointed. Was definitely going to add this to my -215 rule as well as wiskybadgers parlay method. Free money everywhere
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Hawk:

    So, you're saying 206-213 is NOT close to 63%?

    I'm shocked.

    Shocked, I tell you............
    I am surely disappointed. Was definitely going to add this to my -215 rule as well as wiskybadgers parlay method. Free money everywhere
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 5:49 PM ET #2205

    Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:


    Your example is you looking at the ingame lines on ONE site. Using one site doesn't work for what I'm talking about. I don't simply make bets and hope it swings the other way. When I say "exploiting advantages" I am taking a bet at +5 that is immediately available elsewhere at -3. I am taking a team on one site that is shaded to one team, knowing I am starting with an advantage before the next second is even played. And you don't always look to middle/sell. If you find a big enough advantage, you hold onto it. But the point is, by putting one site against another, you are "beating the line" and can decide what you want to do it based on the next opportunity that presents itself. 

    Sure, sometimes you get stuck with positions you don't want (as another poster mentioned) but that's not the goal here. Whether you are instantly selling/middling your position, you are using multiple sites against each other to get an advantage. Pregame betting/halftime lines don't offer this. The prices are what they are give or take 0.5. 

    "Capping" involves studying players/teams. I don't do any of that. My capping is studying numbers/prices during the game across multiple sites at the same time. 

    I like to think I am more investing than gambling, but at the end of the day, we are all gambling. Both forms of have their own advantages/disadvantages. Part of me wishes I was able to simply "cap" games because it wouldn't be as time consuming. I know most enjoy watching the games for action purposes but they don't have to watch the games. I have to be watching the games. (or at the very least, in front of my computer with access to every site I have at the same time)

    Despite how different they are in terms of the bet making process, I am still a strong believer in what I/others have mentioned in regards to discipline. If a play falls into your system (whatever that system is) you should play it no matter how many games you have played on the day. It is your responsibility to make sure your judgement isn't clouded by emotions of being up or down on that specific session. THAT is the discipline that is needed. That said, if you spend hours capping games (I'd imagine the games of the entire day from start to finish), then I do understand you could make the argument that the game would have stood out in your capping session if it needed to be played. Not “oh I’m up/down on the night, lets stay disciplined and take the rest of the night off” There seems to be a great divide on the entire concept.  


    First off I don't know where you are instantly finding 8 point middles like your example.

    I believe you because I've never had two in game books at the same time but don't most of these in-game algorithms that post instant lines run off similar software? To have that big of a disparity during a commercial break boggles my mind even though it's only one example in theory.

    Secondly, and this is not a potshot, but what you do sounds highly unenjoyable. Simply capping a game and being correct about its finer details, while getting paid for it, is very satisfying! Try it sometime!
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    Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:


    Your example is you looking at the ingame lines on ONE site. Using one site doesn't work for what I'm talking about. I don't simply make bets and hope it swings the other way. When I say "exploiting advantages" I am taking a bet at +5 that is immediately available elsewhere at -3. I am taking a team on one site that is shaded to one team, knowing I am starting with an advantage before the next second is even played. And you don't always look to middle/sell. If you find a big enough advantage, you hold onto it. But the point is, by putting one site against another, you are "beating the line" and can decide what you want to do it based on the next opportunity that presents itself. 

    Sure, sometimes you get stuck with positions you don't want (as another poster mentioned) but that's not the goal here. Whether you are instantly selling/middling your position, you are using multiple sites against each other to get an advantage. Pregame betting/halftime lines don't offer this. The prices are what they are give or take 0.5. 

    "Capping" involves studying players/teams. I don't do any of that. My capping is studying numbers/prices during the game across multiple sites at the same time. 

    I like to think I am more investing than gambling, but at the end of the day, we are all gambling. Both forms of have their own advantages/disadvantages. Part of me wishes I was able to simply "cap" games because it wouldn't be as time consuming. I know most enjoy watching the games for action purposes but they don't have to watch the games. I have to be watching the games. (or at the very least, in front of my computer with access to every site I have at the same time)

    Despite how different they are in terms of the bet making process, I am still a strong believer in what I/others have mentioned in regards to discipline. If a play falls into your system (whatever that system is) you should play it no matter how many games you have played on the day. It is your responsibility to make sure your judgement isn't clouded by emotions of being up or down on that specific session. THAT is the discipline that is needed. That said, if you spend hours capping games (I'd imagine the games of the entire day from start to finish), then I do understand you could make the argument that the game would have stood out in your capping session if it needed to be played. Not “oh I’m up/down on the night, lets stay disciplined and take the rest of the night off” There seems to be a great divide on the entire concept.  


    First off I don't know where you are instantly finding 8 point middles like your example.

    I believe you because I've never had two in game books at the same time but don't most of these in-game algorithms that post instant lines run off similar software? To have that big of a disparity during a commercial break boggles my mind even though it's only one example in theory.

    Secondly, and this is not a potshot, but what you do sounds highly unenjoyable. Simply capping a game and being correct about its finer details, while getting paid for it, is very satisfying! Try it sometime!
     
    tsw
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 5:50 PM ET #2206

    CG, I don't see any mention here, but do you just play the power conference games?  I find the most value in the mid to lower majors.  More power to ya if you can hit 60% betting the tightest lines on the board.


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    CG, I don't see any mention here, but do you just play the power conference games?  I find the most value in the mid to lower majors.  More power to ya if you can hit 60% betting the tightest lines on the board.


     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 5:58 PM ET #2207

    Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

    believe it or not at MOST sportsbooks here in vegas u CAN"T buy the half pt for hoops... I happened to go to one today where u could. 

    that amazes me.


    This is why Van was promoting offshore books.

    Even the crummiest, most basic offshore book will allow you to buy a.5  point.

    For anyone to walk into any book in 2015 and not be able to buy a hook is an embarrassment of the highest order, in the sportsbetting capital of the world no less!
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    Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

    believe it or not at MOST sportsbooks here in vegas u CAN"T buy the half pt for hoops... I happened to go to one today where u could. 

    that amazes me.


    This is why Van was promoting offshore books.

    Even the crummiest, most basic offshore book will allow you to buy a.5  point.

    For anyone to walk into any book in 2015 and not be able to buy a hook is an embarrassment of the highest order, in the sportsbetting capital of the world no less!
     
    rangerz2478
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 6:13 PM ET #2208

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    First off I don't know where you are instantly finding 8 point middles like your example.

    I believe you because I've never had two in game books at the same time but don't most of these in-game algorithms that post instant lines run off similar software? To have that big of a disparity during a commercial break boggles my mind even though it's only one example in theory.

    Secondly, and this is not a potshot, but what you do sounds highly unenjoyable. Simply capping a game and being correct about its finer details, while getting paid for it, is very satisfying! Try it sometime!

    +5 and -3 is not an 8 pt middle, it's a 2 pt middle. Is it always the most enjoyable thing in the world? No but it's profitable long term. Capping completely on feel from what I personally know, and what I have read is not. I don't do this for self satisfaction, I do this to make money. Ingame betting when done correctly is way more similar to stock trading than gambling on sports. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    First off I don't know where you are instantly finding 8 point middles like your example.

    I believe you because I've never had two in game books at the same time but don't most of these in-game algorithms that post instant lines run off similar software? To have that big of a disparity during a commercial break boggles my mind even though it's only one example in theory.

    Secondly, and this is not a potshot, but what you do sounds highly unenjoyable. Simply capping a game and being correct about its finer details, while getting paid for it, is very satisfying! Try it sometime!

    +5 and -3 is not an 8 pt middle, it's a 2 pt middle. Is it always the most enjoyable thing in the world? No but it's profitable long term. Capping completely on feel from what I personally know, and what I have read is not. I don't do this for self satisfaction, I do this to make money. Ingame betting when done correctly is way more similar to stock trading than gambling on sports. 
     
    rangerz2478
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 6:19 PM ET #2209

    To add, many do run off similar software. The key is finding different sites that complement each other in order to do it successfully. It's the kind of advantages you just can't find by shopping pregame lines. (unless of course you have injury info before the books get them)
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    To add, many do run off similar software. The key is finding different sites that complement each other in order to do it successfully. It's the kind of advantages you just can't find by shopping pregame lines. (unless of course you have injury info before the books get them)
     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 6:23 PM ET #2210

    Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:

    I do have NBA data 2008-2014 also but only in moneyline format closing odds (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4_F0w4VZKaCREx5V1NPUkhPZ2s/view?usp=sharing). Realised I could make a crude spread conversion though using a table like this one:

    https://www.sportility.net/nba/moneyline_points.html

    running the numbers for road dogs +3 +6 and +13 gives the road ATS at:

    151-152-15
    50-55-3
    5-6-1
    -----------
    206-213-19

    This says nothing about opening lines or movements though. Personally I'll stay away from that system of yours regardless.

    A losing record. 

    Not only is it not 63%, but it in fact would lose you money.

    TDog has suddenly gone silent.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:

    I do have NBA data 2008-2014 also but only in moneyline format closing odds (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4_F0w4VZKaCREx5V1NPUkhPZ2s/view?usp=sharing). Realised I could make a crude spread conversion though using a table like this one:

    https://www.sportility.net/nba/moneyline_points.html

    running the numbers for road dogs +3 +6 and +13 gives the road ATS at:

    151-152-15
    50-55-3
    5-6-1
    -----------
    206-213-19

    This says nothing about opening lines or movements though. Personally I'll stay away from that system of yours regardless.

    A losing record. 

    Not only is it not 63%, but it in fact would lose you money.

    TDog has suddenly gone silent.

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 6:27 PM ET #2211

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    First off I don't know where you are instantly finding 8 point middles like your example.

    I believe you because I've never had two in game books at the same time but don't most of these in-game algorithms that post instant lines run off similar software? To have that big of a disparity during a commercial break boggles my mind even though it's only one example in theory.

    Secondly, and this is not a potshot, but what you do sounds highly unenjoyable. Simply capping a game and being correct about its finer details, while getting paid for it, is very satisfying! Try it sometime!

    Scal - I don't want to answer for Rangerz as he is very capable of doing a better job than me...

    But I do think he meant that one team he can bet at +5, and the OTHER SIDE can be bet at -3 at close to the same time.

    That's not an 8 point middle, its a 2 point "middle" - in the first bet the fav is -5 and in the second bet the fav is -3.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


    First off I don't know where you are instantly finding 8 point middles like your example.

    I believe you because I've never had two in game books at the same time but don't most of these in-game algorithms that post instant lines run off similar software? To have that big of a disparity during a commercial break boggles my mind even though it's only one example in theory.

    Secondly, and this is not a potshot, but what you do sounds highly unenjoyable. Simply capping a game and being correct about its finer details, while getting paid for it, is very satisfying! Try it sometime!

    Scal - I don't want to answer for Rangerz as he is very capable of doing a better job than me...

    But I do think he meant that one team he can bet at +5, and the OTHER SIDE can be bet at -3 at close to the same time.

    That's not an 8 point middle, its a 2 point "middle" - in the first bet the fav is -5 and in the second bet the fav is -3.

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 6:28 PM ET #2212

    Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:


    +5 and -3 is not an 8 pt middle, it's a 2 pt middle. Is it always the most enjoyable thing in the world? No but it's profitable long term. Capping completely on feel from what I personally know, and what I have read is not. I don't do this for self satisfaction, I do this to make money. Ingame betting when done correctly is way more similar to stock trading than gambling on sports. 

    Sorry - should have read further before responding.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:


    +5 and -3 is not an 8 pt middle, it's a 2 pt middle. Is it always the most enjoyable thing in the world? No but it's profitable long term. Capping completely on feel from what I personally know, and what I have read is not. I don't do this for self satisfaction, I do this to make money. Ingame betting when done correctly is way more similar to stock trading than gambling on sports. 

    Sorry - should have read further before responding.

     
    collegegambler
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 6:45 PM ET #2213

    Let's go Spartans and Cavs!! Almost gametime in a East Lansing a beautiful 72 degrees here and sunny today. Love the weather out here thus far fellas. Good luck on your plays today also
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    Let's go Spartans and Cavs!! Almost gametime in a East Lansing a beautiful 72 degrees here and sunny today. Love the weather out here thus far fellas. Good luck on your plays today also
     
    TheBuddah
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 6:47 PM ET #2214

    CG - Great start and continued success on your Journey.  I've enjoyed reading this thread since you originally posted it.  

    Plenty of interesting comments and theories - I had not heard of the 3 -6 - 13 theory in my many years of betting, therefore - I have put the hypothesis to the test.  Based on games played between last 2/18 - 2/25, based on the opening line listed on donbest.com; there have been 19 games with an opening line of either 3, 6 or 13 (for the home team only) - record stands at 9 -10 - meaning - 9 dogs covered and 10 favs covered.  

    It's a sample size of a week - however, not sure i'd hang my hat on the 3 -6-13 theory.   Resources that may help you or someone else:

    1. donbest.com for the opening line

    2. sagarin.com for rankings and schedule strength (someone mentioned this earlier)

    3. statfox.com only site that I know of that breaks down home and away data

    4. many have mentioned the amounts that you should bet - the Kelly Criterion may help you figure that out - look it up.

    5. Whatever data you use to hang your hat on -  collect, record and analyze it to ensure it's consistent and profitable.  You will be around for a long time.   

    7. Good luck on your plays.

     

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    CG - Great start and continued success on your Journey.  I've enjoyed reading this thread since you originally posted it.  

    Plenty of interesting comments and theories - I had not heard of the 3 -6 - 13 theory in my many years of betting, therefore - I have put the hypothesis to the test.  Based on games played between last 2/18 - 2/25, based on the opening line listed on donbest.com; there have been 19 games with an opening line of either 3, 6 or 13 (for the home team only) - record stands at 9 -10 - meaning - 9 dogs covered and 10 favs covered.  

    It's a sample size of a week - however, not sure i'd hang my hat on the 3 -6-13 theory.   Resources that may help you or someone else:

    1. donbest.com for the opening line

    2. sagarin.com for rankings and schedule strength (someone mentioned this earlier)

    3. statfox.com only site that I know of that breaks down home and away data

    4. many have mentioned the amounts that you should bet - the Kelly Criterion may help you figure that out - look it up.

    5. Whatever data you use to hang your hat on -  collect, record and analyze it to ensure it's consistent and profitable.  You will be around for a long time.   

    7. Good luck on your plays.

     

     
    TheGoldenGoose
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 6:53 PM ET #2215

    Quote Originally Posted by TheBuddah:

    CG - Great start and continued success on your Journey.  I've enjoyed reading this thread since you originally posted it.  

    Plenty of interesting comments and theories - I had not heard of the 3 -6 - 13 theory in my many years of betting, therefore - I have put the hypothesis to the test.  Based on games played between last 2/18 - 2/25, based on the opening line listed on donbest.com; there have been 19 games with an opening line of either 3, 6 or 13 (for the home team only) - record stands at 9 -10 - meaning - 9 dogs covered and 10 favs covered.  

    It's a sample size of a week - however, not sure i'd hang my hat on the 3 -6-13 theory.   Resources that may help you or someone else:

    1. donbest.com for the opening line

    2. sagarin.com for rankings and schedule strength (someone mentioned this earlier)

    3. statfox.com only site that I know of that breaks down home and away data

    4. many have mentioned the amounts that you should bet - the Kelly Criterion may help you figure that out - look it up.

    5. Whatever data you use to hang your hat on -  collect, record and analyze it to ensure it's consistent and profitable.  You will be around for a long time.   

    7. Good luck on your plays.

     





    Nice List, Thank You.



    8. Get CG an AVATAR


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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBuddah:

    CG - Great start and continued success on your Journey.  I've enjoyed reading this thread since you originally posted it.  

    Plenty of interesting comments and theories - I had not heard of the 3 -6 - 13 theory in my many years of betting, therefore - I have put the hypothesis to the test.  Based on games played between last 2/18 - 2/25, based on the opening line listed on donbest.com; there have been 19 games with an opening line of either 3, 6 or 13 (for the home team only) - record stands at 9 -10 - meaning - 9 dogs covered and 10 favs covered.  

    It's a sample size of a week - however, not sure i'd hang my hat on the 3 -6-13 theory.   Resources that may help you or someone else:

    1. donbest.com for the opening line

    2. sagarin.com for rankings and schedule strength (someone mentioned this earlier)

    3. statfox.com only site that I know of that breaks down home and away data

    4. many have mentioned the amounts that you should bet - the Kelly Criterion may help you figure that out - look it up.

    5. Whatever data you use to hang your hat on -  collect, record and analyze it to ensure it's consistent and profitable.  You will be around for a long time.   

    7. Good luck on your plays.

     





    Nice List, Thank You.



    8. Get CG an AVATAR


     
    collegegambler
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 6:54 PM ET #2216

    Thanks Buddah appreciate it bro
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    Thanks Buddah appreciate it bro
     
    Kaufee
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 7:01 PM ET #2217

    Tdog, quit while you're behind, you're getting abused, man
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    Tdog, quit while you're behind, you're getting abused, man
     
    tdog25
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 7:03 PM ET #2218

    3, 6, 13 is BASED ON THE CLOSING LINE.
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    3, 6, 13 is BASED ON THE CLOSING LINE.
     
    Bermax
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 7:03 PM ET #2219

    Quote Originally Posted by ILPRATO:

    Just trying to be constructive.

    Buying a half point in basketball over the long run is a waste of money the odds that it lands on 3 is not worth laying the extra 10 cents in juice.


    Good luck

    Before I checked this I thought you'd be right since I don't belive sportsbooks are very keen offering something that's to the bettor's advantage.

    Over 28,000+ games in the NCAAB, however, betting both sides at the offered spread at -110 results in a loss of 6.2 cents for every dollar staked. Buying the half point at -120 and doing the same results in a loss of 4.5 cents. I seems as the price they offer is fair, if it is -120 every time.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ILPRATO:

    Just trying to be constructive.

    Buying a half point in basketball over the long run is a waste of money the odds that it lands on 3 is not worth laying the extra 10 cents in juice.


    Good luck

    Before I checked this I thought you'd be right since I don't belive sportsbooks are very keen offering something that's to the bettor's advantage.

    Over 28,000+ games in the NCAAB, however, betting both sides at the offered spread at -110 results in a loss of 6.2 cents for every dollar staked. Buying the half point at -120 and doing the same results in a loss of 4.5 cents. I seems as the price they offer is fair, if it is -120 every time.
     
    The Hawk
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 7:07 PM ET #2220

    Quote Originally Posted by tdog25:

    3, 6, 13 is BASED ON THE CLOSING LINE.

    Just shut the F up with this miserable, stupid, "theory" that HAS BEEN PROVEN WRONG.

    Give up, Johnny, it's over. It's over, man. 

    If you happen to be on a bridge, jump...........
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    Quote Originally Posted by tdog25:

    3, 6, 13 is BASED ON THE CLOSING LINE.

    Just shut the F up with this miserable, stupid, "theory" that HAS BEEN PROVEN WRONG.

    Give up, Johnny, it's over. It's over, man. 

    If you happen to be on a bridge, jump...........
     
    ad1260
    ad1260
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 7:13 PM ET #2221

    Let's go! 
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    Let's go! 
     
    Bermax
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 7:22 PM ET #2222

    Quote Originally Posted by TheBuddah:

    CG - Great start and continued success on your Journey.  I've enjoyed reading this thread since you originally posted it.  

    Plenty of interesting comments and theories - I had not heard of the 3 -6 - 13 theory in my many years of betting, therefore - I have put the hypothesis to the test.  Based on games played between last 2/18 - 2/25, based on the opening line listed on donbest.com; there have been 19 games with an opening line of either 3, 6 or 13 (for the home team only) - record stands at 9 -10 - meaning - 9 dogs covered and 10 favs covered.  

    It's a sample size of a week - however, not sure i'd hang my hat on the 3 -6-13 theory.   Resources that may help you or someone else:

    1. donbest.com for the opening line

    2. sagarin.com for rankings and schedule strength (someone mentioned this earlier)

    3. statfox.com only site that I know of that breaks down home and away data

    4. many have mentioned the amounts that you should bet - the Kelly Criterion may help you figure that out - look it up.

    5. Whatever data you use to hang your hat on -  collect, record and analyze it to ensure it's consistent and profitable.  You will be around for a long time.   

    7. Good luck on your plays.

     


    Your sample size is very small.

    Off the top of my head:
    The kelly criterion is suicide if you can't estimate your exact edge (very few can), since that's the basis for calculating kelly. Even if he could do that it'd be pretty useless: If CG posts an astonishingly good and extremely consistent record of say 58% over 500 bets, full kelly would be just about 12% of bankroll. Full Kelly also means a risk of dipping into red numbers (bankrupcy) of 1/3. Going half Kelly means 6% of bankroll and is much safer since risk of bankrupcy is only 1/9. It will still give large BR swings since it's a very aggressive, high variance staking plan. Would have to be on the conservative side of that and all of a sudden you're in the good ol 2-5% of BR territory that most serious bettors that doesn't flat stake employ. So much for Kelly.

    Here's an interesting tool if you're into the topic:
    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBuddah:

    CG - Great start and continued success on your Journey.  I've enjoyed reading this thread since you originally posted it.  

    Plenty of interesting comments and theories - I had not heard of the 3 -6 - 13 theory in my many years of betting, therefore - I have put the hypothesis to the test.  Based on games played between last 2/18 - 2/25, based on the opening line listed on donbest.com; there have been 19 games with an opening line of either 3, 6 or 13 (for the home team only) - record stands at 9 -10 - meaning - 9 dogs covered and 10 favs covered.  

    It's a sample size of a week - however, not sure i'd hang my hat on the 3 -6-13 theory.   Resources that may help you or someone else:

    1. donbest.com for the opening line

    2. sagarin.com for rankings and schedule strength (someone mentioned this earlier)

    3. statfox.com only site that I know of that breaks down home and away data

    4. many have mentioned the amounts that you should bet - the Kelly Criterion may help you figure that out - look it up.

    5. Whatever data you use to hang your hat on -  collect, record and analyze it to ensure it's consistent and profitable.  You will be around for a long time.   

    7. Good luck on your plays.

     


    Your sample size is very small.

    Off the top of my head:
    The kelly criterion is suicide if you can't estimate your exact edge (very few can), since that's the basis for calculating kelly. Even if he could do that it'd be pretty useless: If CG posts an astonishingly good and extremely consistent record of say 58% over 500 bets, full kelly would be just about 12% of bankroll. Full Kelly also means a risk of dipping into red numbers (bankrupcy) of 1/3. Going half Kelly means 6% of bankroll and is much safer since risk of bankrupcy is only 1/9. It will still give large BR swings since it's a very aggressive, high variance staking plan. Would have to be on the conservative side of that and all of a sudden you're in the good ol 2-5% of BR territory that most serious bettors that doesn't flat stake employ. So much for Kelly.

    Here's an interesting tool if you're into the topic:
    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/
     
    tdog25
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 7:22 PM ET #2223

    just got a copenhagen long cut, let's do this, either it's 0-2 or 2-0 night..
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    just got a copenhagen long cut, let's do this, either it's 0-2 or 2-0 night..
     
    baronman
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 7:24 PM ET #2224

    Everyone last one really like this one I was on someone's thread on nba & I gave my pick .They are about 50/ 50 Went on line did research . LAst time I gave winner Boston+7.5/Suns I said Drago & Isah Thomas gone . I told you Issah Thomas revenge being traded to Boston .He didn't like that he said.Isah came through 21 points 7 assists . Boston wins out right . However It seems Jennings coming over is starting play very well avg 18 Game . Also Okc not same Perkings gone center this year , Steve Adams stepping very good However Steve Adams & Steve Novack out Durrant Out. Like home court. & points Okc is missing 2 starters & Novack of bench Center now was backup & Utah this year. Not very good.$33-30 . Again my main bets College pick Michigan st & College & my pick Cavs -3 Bought half like covers Good luck any real bettors have any picks out there. Good Luck to all .Out
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    Everyone last one really like this one I was on someone's thread on nba & I gave my pick .They are about 50/ 50 Went on line did research . LAst time I gave winner Boston+7.5/Suns I said Drago & Isah Thomas gone . I told you Issah Thomas revenge being traded to Boston .He didn't like that he said.Isah came through 21 points 7 assists . Boston wins out right . However It seems Jennings coming over is starting play very well avg 18 Game . Also Okc not same Perkings gone center this year , Steve Adams stepping very good However Steve Adams & Steve Novack out Durrant Out. Like home court. & points Okc is missing 2 starters & Novack of bench Center now was backup & Utah this year. Not very good.$33-30 . Again my main bets College pick Michigan st & College & my pick Cavs -3 Bought half like covers Good luck any real bettors have any picks out there. Good Luck to all .Out
     
     
    rangerz2478
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    Posted: Feb. 26, 2015 - 7:29 PM ET #2225

    Quote Originally Posted by baronman:

    Everyone last one really like this one I was on someone's thread on nba & I gave my pick .They are about 50/ 50 Went on line did research . LAst time I gave winner Boston+7.5/Suns I said Drago & Isah Thomas gone . I told you Issah Thomas revenge being traded to Boston .He didn't like that he said.Isah came through 21 points 7 assists . Boston wins out right . However It seems Jennings coming over is starting play very well avg 18 Game . Also Okc not same Perkings gone center this year , Steve Adams stepping very good However Steve Adams & Steve Novack out Durrant Out. Like home court. & points Okc is missing 2 starters & Novack of bench Center now was backup & Utah this year. Not very good.$33-30 . Again my main bets College pick Michigan st & College & my pick Cavs -3 Bought half like covers Good luck any real bettors have any picks out there. Good Luck to all .Out

    Why do you keep asking if others post plays? There is an entire forum for that. No one cares about your plays in here. The only plays that should be posted are CG's. No offense, but I can assure you no one is looking to follow your plays. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by baronman:

    Everyone last one really like this one I was on someone's thread on nba & I gave my pick .They are about 50/ 50 Went on line did research . LAst time I gave winner Boston+7.5/Suns I said Drago & Isah Thomas gone . I told you Issah Thomas revenge being traded to Boston .He didn't like that he said.Isah came through 21 points 7 assists . Boston wins out right . However It seems Jennings coming over is starting play very well avg 18 Game . Also Okc not same Perkings gone center this year , Steve Adams stepping very good However Steve Adams & Steve Novack out Durrant Out. Like home court. & points Okc is missing 2 starters & Novack of bench Center now was backup & Utah this year. Not very good.$33-30 . Again my main bets College pick Michigan st & College & my pick Cavs -3 Bought half like covers Good luck any real bettors have any picks out there. Good Luck to all .Out

    Why do you keep asking if others post plays? There is an entire forum for that. No one cares about your plays in here. The only plays that should be posted are CG's. No offense, but I can assure you no one is looking to follow your plays. 
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