Posted:
#10151
Guess u didn't see my nfl dominance
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Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper
Posted:
#10152
CG -
You act as though free throws literally should be free points. C'mon.
One thing NOBODY but me has mentioned in this entire thread is that you are betting on low stakes outcome (who covers a spread). If you're doing this qualitatively, you need to be betting on events the participants actually care about (i.e. fighting sports). How I'm the only one who's mentioned this, I don't know.
You act as though free throws literally should be free points. C'mon.
One thing NOBODY but me has mentioned in this entire thread is that you are betting on low stakes outcome (who covers a spread). If you're doing this qualitatively, you need to be betting on events the participants actually care about (i.e. fighting sports). How I'm the only one who's mentioned this, I don't know.
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Posted:
#10156
Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:
all I know is if I took wiscy +5 instead of buying it to +6 and they lost by 5 or 6 I couldn't live with myself
so yea it's nuts per say to pay the extra $600 in juice but this is my last bomb play if I lose before my grind so I want every bet of insurance I can get. if they lose by 7 or more yea I'm out an extra $600 than I should be but I need that extra pt for insurance... even tho I feel wiscy wins the game outright
last sunday similar scenario... Michigan state is -2.5 at the book with the -105 juice specials and -2 -110 at another book
u clowns would want me to take the -2.5 -105 which is absurd... I took the -2 -110 and although it didn't matter it was the type of game where it easily could have ended a Michigan state 2 pt victory.
when sparty was up one shooting two free throws late, would u have liked to have -2.5 and not -2?
give me a break don't tell the pro how to run things like I told u all before
That's the funny thing, no one is really "telling" you how to "run" anything. Just trying to have a basic conversation on the math behind wagering. But you LITERALLY have yet to post a SINGLE logical and practical reason behind buying a point, or half point. ZERO.
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but i do like them to stay within the number
Posted:
#10165
Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:
I AM GURANTEEING A WISCY COVER. FIRST TIME IN MY CAREER ISSUING A GURANTEE
WTF- WRONG TEAM FAVORED
Yikes.
I have Wisconsin in a season long pool so have been following them very, very, closely. They are good, really fking good. Kaminsky is amazing. His post moves, footwork, ball handling, and defensive ability to play 1-1 without following are best in college. Dekker can do it all. Drive, shoot, and handle. Hayes hasn't been playing great but when he does his mid range is automatic. He can drive and hit the 3. I love Koenig. Doesn't turn it over much and clutch 3s. Gasser is gritty as hell plays unreal defense..and will have a play this game flying into the crowd to save the ball. To top it off they Jackson coming off the bench. Who is a top 3 PG when he is healthy..They are easily the 2nd best team in college basketball. To bad they are playing the BEST team in possibly college basketball history.
I get it. I get why you like Wisconsin and so do I. To think they can't lose by 7 points, or should be favored is CRAZY. If Kentucky plays a great game and Wisconsin just plays a good game, they will lose by 10. Man, your whole outlook on gambling is becoming outrageous. Thinking you are unlucky when you lose, but flipping that coin around couldn't you say that you got lucky when MSU was down 10 to Oklahoma, but you still won 8800?
Goodluck I think Wisconsin will cover, and win. I really do. I also know there is a 20% chance they lose by 10 points. Being over- confident in something you have zero control over is, and will be bettors decline forever.
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Posted:
#10167
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:
As long as you are branching out into different sports, why not take a shot at a few soccer plays today? Europe leagues are back in action!
Ipswich-Bournemouth (ECL) OV 2.5
Vaduz-Young Boys (SUI) OV 2.5
Monaco (FRA) ML
Watford (ECL) NTL
There is really nothing wrong at all with betting random sports and leagues. It's your money, you can do whatever you want with it. I do it all the time. I will wager on a soccer league on teams I've never even seen play before.
But here is the KEY. I do it for ACTION. I do it because I'm an AMATEUR. And I do NOT do it with 8% of my life's savings, nor do I do for the same amounts that I wager on teams/leagues/sports that I know well.
The sooner you can realize and admit that you are not a pro, the sooner you can get a plan in place to survive financially. You keep referencing your win rate out there, but you are down a ton. Should be a pretty eye opening red flag right there. I mean FFS you keep saying you are CURSED?? LOL. That's about as amateur as it gets bud.
Sorry for the preaching and piling on, I know you're probably having a rough couple days. BOL on the "bomb" plays.
I can't even pronounce the above named teams.
I'm parlaying all four bets...
And then I'm going pro...
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Posted:
#10169
Quote Originally Posted by chaloots:
You are paying an extra 15 cents for 1 point so let say your "bomb" play is to win 5000, you will risk 6000 to win 5000, if you play the +5 -105 you can risk 6k and win 5715. So you risk the same amount but cut you profit by 715 if it lands on any number other than 6. Get it? Also you love the game so much and somehow you think the wrong team is favored, why would you need to buy a point?
You are paying an extra 15 cents for 1 point so let say your "bomb" play is to win 5000, you will risk 6000 to win 5000, if you play the +5 -105 you can risk 6k and win 5715. So you risk the same amount but cut you profit by 715 if it lands on any number other than 6. Get it? Also you love the game so much and somehow you think the wrong team is favored, why would you need to buy a point?
That's correct.
And Vanzack's math is correct on this too.
But the human psyche and fear/flight/fight response is stronger than any of this.
CG wants to fight but shows his fear because of his previous bad beats (and they were bad, really bad, namely his last one with the Bucks Heat which was the worst NBA beat of the year, along with the other worst beat, Spurs Cavs, which he had too!).
If I had that much money left in my account and suffered the beats he did, I unfortunately might be buying points as well, even though it is highly irrational.
So in a way, I can see why CG is doing what he is doing. It's quite costly but the fear response is too strong to overcome.
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Posted:
#10170
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
I can't even pronounce the above named teams.
I'm parlaying all four bets...
And then I'm going pro...
Lucky for you the matches already started, as I am off to a quick 0-2 start in my pro career. Probably make up for it with an NBA bomb later.
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Posted:
#10173
Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:
nah just my own research vanzack.. the wrong team is favored in this Wisconsin Kentucky game and its just time for me to take advantage of it in a large way
nah just my own research vanzack.. the wrong team is favored in this Wisconsin Kentucky game and its just time for me to take advantage of it in a large way
I have the exact opposite viewpoint. And I won a bundle on Wisconsin last week over Arizona as well.
Without the threes, Wisky goes down to Arizona. Wisky was subpar at the line, played terrible interior defense, and was shaky handling the fullcourt pressure.
There are 2 things about this wager vs UK that should make your butthole pucker:
1) The game is in Indy. A huge venue.....you are betting on a shooting team to light it up from 3 in an airplane hanger vs the longest defensive team in the game.
2) Kaminsky is it for Wisconsin. Wisky was up 11 and rolling vs Arizona, until he left the game with 4 fouls....the lead went to 5 in short order. Kentucky can roll 3 bigs and soak fouls all night long. Simply put, it is a terrible matchup for Wisky.
Most likely, UK will pound it down low early on, and it will either be easy pickens underneath, or Kaminsky will get 2 fouls early.
IF Kaminsky gets in foul trouble AND UK goes to some fullcourt pressure, all of the Sam Baker 3's in the world won't help. UK will roll by dd's.
I call shenanigans on this wager CG......I think it is time to see a picture of the ticket....even for you this is reckless; need some proof. 
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Posted:
#10174
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
That's correct.
And Vanzack's math is correct on this too.
But the human psyche and fear/flight/fight response is stronger than any of this.
CG wants to fight but shows his fear because of his previous bad beats (and they were bad, really bad, namely his last one with the Bucks Heat which was the worst NBA beat of the year, along with the other worst beat, Spurs Cavs, which he had too!).
If I had that much money left in my account and suffered the beats he did, I unfortunately might be buying points as well, even though it is highly irrational.
So in a way, I can see why CG is doing what he is doing. It's quite costly but the fear response is too strong to overcome.
100% correct..this is wat people in here cant understand wen they waste their breath pointlessly giving the guy advice,theyre not speaking to a sane,rational person so im not sure wat response they expect..its like smashing the shiiit out of ya head against a brick wall
...theres better ways to spend your time.
...theres better ways to spend your time.the guys head is a mess and he cant make sense of the most obvious concept and emotions are dictating every single thing he does...he continually cites a tiny,tiny handful of games he took a bad loss on and completely disregards the long term big picture......before he "turned pro" was he buying half points on every single bet for the entire past 3 seasons of handicapping??
...and i wonder wat his stats are as to the results of buying/not buying those half points...
...and i wonder wat his stats are as to the results of buying/not buying those half points...but,no...wen your head is a mess and youre playing for high stakes the only memory you have is a selective one and a negative viewpoint.......its startling to see the difference in the perception of EVERYONE else in this thread(with nothing at stake),juxtaposed with that of college gambler......compelling psychological study case actually.
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Posted:
#10175
FINAL FOUR PLAY FOR SATURDAY 4/4/15 just locked in right around NOON PACIFIC
Wisconsin Badgers +5.5 (-110) $4400/$4000
So I went to what I thought was a big time book... the only book where Wiscy is +5.5 right now to be honest in all of town and told the girl Wiscy +6 buying the half $4800/$4000 then some guy in the back goes and talks to another guy and comes back and says u can only buy the half to win a dime.....
So I stepped away for a second and thought what to do... considering they are the only book in town offering +5.5 I figured to lock them in at that number not buying any halfs..
funny that last week I bought sparty to -1 (-120) in my epic $4800/$4000 hit and that particular book had no problem letting me buy a pt in that spot to win 4K
Anyway, wiscy should win the game outright.. better fg and ft% organization... and only allow 4 more pts per game than Kentucky, and also play way better competition as well as have revenge on there minds for last year.
I love the play... I am a little concerned now though that they wouldn't let me buy it up to +6 to win 4K might cost me.. especially with all u clowns on here telling me how dumb it is to buy half pts.. would just be fitting that such a large play now ends in a 6 pt Kentucky victory..
cant think like that though, love the play.. got a team who will win outright at +5.5 and the best line in town at least at this time.. I couldn't wait till tomorrow.. wanted to lock in and black out and not worry about it till gametime tomorrow
anorexic milf coming over tonight and Asian milf wants to watch this game and bet wiscy with me tomorrow.
amazing, I used to be a humble, nice kid at home... now I have turned into a complete jerkofff.. funny what vegas will do to you.. love it here tho and like JOE WILLY the CG GURANTEES A WISCY +5.5 cover
LETS GOOO 
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