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Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper

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Posted: #9301

yea really every game is a coin flip game

last night the Shockers was a coin flip game that I lost by 11

so tonight I want sparty to blow the sooners out..  I don't even expect it to be close.. Sparty in a rout

 
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Posted: #9302

I need this game so bad...  my savings will be respectable at around 15K with a win or I am in deep garbage at only 5.2K left

time to hit the bottle hard.

will be back during the game

lets go Sparty or if u guys r ready to see the disaster nearing end then root for the Sooners

dosent matter to me.. LETS GO SPARTY

 
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Posted: #9303
Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

Kaufree- I got like 46K in my 401K  I would be ashamed to have to go into that and promised myself I wont 

here is my plan... if I LOSE tonight, which I DONT EXPECT

then I gotta somehow grind $100 or so a game with my remaining 5.2K  I don't have to pay rent again until June... so just have to try to start winning like $500-$600 a week and grinding and just forget what happened

u know if my sick brain tho that will be near impossible


Not realistic to expect to win on average 5-6 units a week, IMO.  That's plus 20-24 units a month.  If you bet 90 games in a month (three games a day) you have to go 63% or better (assuming all bets at -110) to pull that off.  Not going to happen.
 
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Posted: #9304
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

This is the problem.

You are accepting terrible odds on that extra 400 bucks you paid for this half point because of desperation.  Not that it makes sense, not that it is good value - but you are paying over 2-1 for a 400 dollar wager that it will land on exactly MSU winning by 1.  You do realize that you are doing that right?

When you buy a half point, you can think of it like you are making a separate wager that it will matter.  In your case, you made a 400 dollar wager that MSU will win by exactly 1 point to win 4,400.  You laid 11-1 that MSU will win by exactly a point.  What are the true odds of this?  I don't know, but not 11-1 - that is an absolutely horrific value bet.

All in the name of desperation.


True odds are around 50-1: 2% of games fall exactly one point from the line on either side over 24,840 NCAAB games. (The number doesnt differ much in subsamples of line ranges either, it's consistently around 1.5-3%)
 
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Posts: 949
Posted: #9305
Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

I got my captain morgan.. the shitshow drunkfest is about to begin.. what a way to live a life

I like vacationing too.  It's the best.
 
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Posted: #9306
https://imgur.com/zLI1YtI

^ Support for you, CG.
 
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Posted: #9307
Quote Originally Posted by BunkMoreland:

I love u guys that keep saying he is betting on a coin flip line.
So isn't ucla +9 also a councillor since the peacemakers factor the zags to be 9 pts better than ucla??


I'm sure there are people out there that truly believe UCLA will win this game.. The fact that they are getting 9 points makes it look like a no-brainer for someone who thinks that way.  In their minds it's not a coin flip.  The spread is so close on MSU/OU that it is almost literally a coin flip.  Obviously with the spreads factored in, each game can go either way.  My point is CG should really cap and find a weak number.  This is a huge play for him.  He needs to find value.  I personally would lean towards a live dog.  If takes a week to find that scenario then he should wait.  
 
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Posted: #9308
Sparty aint blowing anyone out.  Kruger will have the sooners ready.
 
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Posted: #9309
Just added another $60, CG. Supporting you 117 to win 100.
 
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Posted: #9310
Quote Originally Posted by zooyorkinc:


I'm sure there are people out there that truly believe UCLA will win this game.. The fact that they are getting 9 points makes it look like a no-brainer for someone who thinks that way.  In their minds it's not a coin flip.  The spread is so close on MSU/OU that it is almost literally a coin flip.  Obviously with the spreads factored in, each game can go either way.  My point is CG should really cap and find a weak number.  This is a huge play for him.  He needs to find value.  I personally would lean towards a live dog.  If takes a week to find that scenario then he should wait.  
What if he thinks Michigan state should be favored by 8 pts?
Ur argument makes zero sense


 
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Posted: #9311
Dude throw a dime on Louisville -2.5 and Utah +5 two team parlay and forget about it!  I do not like Sparta tonight such a sucker bet
 
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Posted: #9312
Dude throw a dime on Louisville -2.5 and Utah +5 two team parlay and forget about it!  I do not like Sparta tonight such a sucker bet
 
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Posted: #9313
Quote Originally Posted by BunkMoreland:

What if he thinks Michigan state should be favored by 8 pts?
Ur argument makes zero sense


If he does think that then he should play it by all means.  I just don't get the feeling that he's put that much work into it.  He seems to be throwing darts.  That being said it's his money he can use it as he pleases.  I hope he wins.  I'm not betting the game so i'm pulling for him.
 
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Posts: 239
Posted: #9314
https://goo.gl/IzJbVT

Added a Bankroll vs Stake size chart to the sheet. What to call this staking strategy I don't know, maybe "Inverse exponential progressive percentage staking" - increase your betsize astronomically when your BR is shrinking.

Or maybe just "Tilt" for short.
 
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Posted: #9315
So even after canceling my dinner plans the Asian Milf wants to watch the game with me. So hopefully she brings me good luck and then I get to suck on those fake titties in a live post Spartan sex celebration. I had the anorexic Milf last night after my drunken binge and two losers
 
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Posted: #9316
Quote Originally Posted by zooyorkinc:

If he does think that then he should play it by all means.  I just don't get the feeling that he's put that much work into it.  He seems to be throwing darts.  That being said it's his money he can use it as he pleases.  I hope he wins.  I'm not betting the game so i'm pulling for him.
It just screams desperation to me.  He's obviously chasing.  It feels like someone that got their azz handed to them all week in the nfl and then just has to make a play on the crappy sunday/monday night game.  Justifying a pick just to have action and trying to recoup loses when the smarter thing would be to wait for a better game.  
 
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Posted: #9317
Cg
I like ou tonight
Just going small cuz I would rather see u bounce back
Shove it in the haters faces
 
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Posted: #9318
Quote Originally Posted by zooyorkinc:

It just screams desperation to me.  He's obviously chasing.  It feels like someone that got their azz handed to them all week in the nfl and then just has to make a play on the crappy sunday/monday night game.  Justifying a pick just to have action and trying to recoup loses when the smarter thing would be to wait for a better game.  
 
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Posted: #9319
Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:


True odds are around 50-1: 2% of games fall exactly one point from the line on either side over 24,840 NCAAB games. (The number doesnt differ much in subsamples of line ranges either, it's consistently around 1.5-3%)

So our professional gambler got 11-1 on a 40-1 (being kind) event.

That says it all.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #9320
On the Mich St game you have one team that wins by being physical. The other is a finesse team. Makes for a hard game to cap. I just know the side that I would take.

GL
 
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Posted: #9321
Quote Originally Posted by INTERVENTION:

JEEZUS THIS KID NEEDS AN INTERVENTION REALLY BADLY. I HAVE WATCHED THE SHOW AND THIS KID IS JUST AS BAD AS THE WORST ON THERE.

UNDERSTAND THAT THIS 28 YEAR OLD KID JUST LOST 5K AND DRANK AN ENTIRE HANDLE OF CAPTAIN MORGAN BY HIMSELF AND NOW HES GOT ANOTHER BOTTLE.

NOT TO MENTION HIS COCAINE HABIT AND THAT HE IS LITERALLY DOWN TO HIS LAST 5K. ALL YOU GUYS ROOTING HIM ON ARE SO SHAMEFUL

SOMEONE NEEDS TO STEP UP AND CONTACT THIS KIDS FAMILY AND GET HIM MUCH NEEDED HELP BEFORE ITS TOO LATE. IF YOU REALLY WANT HIM TO WIN THEN SOMEONE NEEDS TO GET HIM HELP.

HIS LATEST VIDEO ENTITLED 'LIVID' WAS SOME NEXT LEVEL SCARY, SAD AND DOWNRIGHT AWFUL. I FEEL BAD FOR THIS KID, HIS UTTER DOWNFALL IS EVERYONE'S ENTERTAINMENT. 

SOMEONE GET THIS KID HELP, PLEASE

TBAG, SHUT THE F UP.........

CHANGE THE RECORD, WILL YOU?

"HEY SHOULDA BET THIS, HE SHOULDA BET THAT"

"I TRIED TO WARN HIM...."

"HE'S A SOCIOPATH"

"HEY, CAN I GET A SHOUTOUT?"

"SOMEONE CALL HIS FAMILY!"

"HIS FAMILY IS LOADED, HE'LL BE OKAY"

He said he got a FIFTH of Captain Morgan, not a 1.75 Litre bottle, you stupid moron. Can't you read at all?

F you, and go to Hell
 
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Posted: #9322
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

So our professional gambler got 11-1 on a 40-1 (being kind) event.

That says it all.



Better chance betting it on the roulette table. Both terrible bets. 
 
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Posts: 253
Posted: #9323
Just locked in 1000/1060 on the Sooner ML. Worst Izzo team in the last decade. Buddy Head and crew beat this average Big Slow FT clanking AVERAGE Big 10 team by 6+
 
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Posts: 253
Posted: #9324
Just locked in 1000/1060 on the Sooner ML. Worst Izzo team in the last decade. Buddy Head and crew beat this average Big Slow FT clanking AVERAGE Big 10 team by 6+
 
 
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Posts: 16192
Posted: #9325
Yet how many games have I lost by a half pt or so? At least 5.
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