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Moving to Vegas to become a full time pro handicapper

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Posts: 649
Posted: #8876
Quote Originally Posted by tzolkin:

It does not matter what he will do. End is near. He has no chance if he tilts, specially when he bets with -110 juice.



CG are you really sure about next crazy big bet? Calm down, still time to think about it.
 
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Posted: #8877
Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

My savings will be around 11.2K if u risk 4.8K tommorow and lose and not way under 10K....

Ok, so I am off a little bit on the numbers.  The point is, you are down a lot from where you started and it has all occurred while you are playing a sport that is not YOUR sport.

The goal was to get to YOUR sport...football.

The goal was to preserve your bankroll.  To GRIND until you got to football.  To steadily grind out a profit in basketball that would pay your bills and prevent loss of your capital.

Neither of these has occurred.  In fact, exactly the opposite has occurred.

It does not matter what your winning percentage is.  Bad money management and undisciplined wagering has buried your winning percentage.  It has been an expensive lesson and will only be worth it if...

YOU LEARN FROM IT AND STOP CONTINUING TO DO IT OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN.

It is ...unbelievably...even now, still not too late to do this right.  To grind it out and get to football...if you will only make the decision to be a PRO.

This entire journey, whether you realize it not, has been an advanced course in life...in sports wagering...in learning to be a pro. You have paid almost 9k in tuition, so far, for your lessons.  You have failed many tests.  The ONLY way that this money will be well spent, at this point, is if you show you can learn from your mistakes.

Stop the bombs.  Start the grind.  Protect the bankroll at all costs.

Pass the test.  Get back on track.

Stick to the plan you had at the beginning.

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
Legend
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Posted: #8878
You have to give tdog some credit even though he is a pathetic person.   He does seem to spend more time at his craft than CG does.
 
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Posted: #8879
I'm calm now. Will sleep on it and decide my approach in the AM
 
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Posted: #8880
10000 play on WVU or 1st half is what I'd do, If I was in your position living the dream. Good luck buddy. On them my self. 
 
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Posted: #8881
Quote Originally Posted by lovethedough:

I have a decent size bet that Kentucky won't win the National Championship CG.   Too hard to go undefeated these days.  

"these days" is not this year in college basketball.

KY will make that press look like child's play.  Everyone lauded Cincy's play against them.  KY barely broke a sweat and still handled them easily.  There are a few teams that can give them some trouble, but WV isn't even close to one of them.

  


 
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Posted: #8882
A K play is what i meant. BOL man. I'm on a tilt just like you, lost on the Wiz, lost on the heat, and lost on murray state. But I'm keeping my head cool and going to go large on WVU and ND, as I think they're good plays. I'd even tease AZ and WISC down but I'm not going to fall for the bait. BOL
 
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Posted: #8883
lol Brady. I'm either go 2.2K for 2K on both or 4K on huggy
 
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Posted: #8884
An anagram of "Huggins" is NigguHs. Coincidence you're droping a 4k bomb on him and his boys, CG?
 
Prospect
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Posts: 239
Posted: #8885
Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

how were the wiz in the sell column?  fading a team who has lost 6 in a row to a team who had won 5 in  row at homethe fact that I broke consecutive 6 game losing streaks in consecutive days is nearly impossible to believethe age old betting montra is to never bet a team on a losing streak I learned that the hard way with Indiana Monday... yet they are the comeback kids tonightthe sickest thing is once charlotte lost I was pisssed at myself for not taking the wizards bc they were up 10 when charlotte game went final and they LOSE OUTRIGHTLMFAOOOso I saved vigfuckk everyones money management talk I am dropping either one or two bombs tomorrow, getting a bottle of captain morgan and will be blacked out by gametime because I cant take much more of these close losses



Streaks have 0 (zero) predictive value it's been proven both theoretically and empirically since the dawn of gambling. you need to get that kind of reasoning sorted or you're just throwing dice. Do you think the probability of throwing a 6 will increase above 1/6 if you have already thrown a streak of 5 sixes? Will update sheet later today. GL with the plays.
 
MVP
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Posted: #8886
Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:




Streaks have 0 (zero) predictive value it's been proven both theoretically and empirically since the dawn of gambling. you need to get that kind of reasoning sorted or you're just throwing dice. Do you think the probability of throwing a 6 will increase above 1/6 if you have already thrown a streak of 5 sixes? Will update sheet later today. GL with the plays.

Bermax. stop with your fancy facts. I'll give you a fact...

3-6-13 theory works!!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8887
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:

Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:

Streaks have 0 (zero) predictive value it's been proven both theoretically and empirically since the dawn of gambling. you need to get that kind of reasoning sorted or you're just throwing dice. Do you think the probability of throwing a 6 will increase above 1/6 if you have already thrown a streak of 5 sixes? Will update sheet later today. GL with the plays.
Bermax. stop with your fancy facts. I'll give you a fact...3-6-13 theory works!!!!



I know, that's why I try to discredit it whenever I get the chance. Don't want the public bandwagoning my 3-6-13 money printer destroying the lines. At least my home streak-easter Sunday-sunny weather system will still be in swing if the unfortunate happens.
 
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Posted: #8888
Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:




Streaks have 0 (zero) predictive value it's been proven both theoretically and empirically since the dawn of gambling. you need to get that kind of reasoning sorted or you're just throwing dice. Do you think the probability of throwing a 6 will increase above 1/6 if you have already thrown a streak of 5 sixes? Will update sheet later today. GL with the plays.


....simple,simple,basic stuff....its absolutely stunning that this dude is tryna make a living at this and yet this has to be explained to him.



collegegambler,its completely mind-boggling to me why you wudnt take the advice of so many others in here and just try get sum part-time work,CONTINUE to do wat you are doing,you have lots of time to cap and bet games still and as time goes on you can decide if you are able to go at it full-time once more...obviously the beauty of this is that it buys ya sum time,pays rent and takes all that stress and pressure off you trying to win games(or else the sky is falling down!!!)...this current situation is clearly and plainly messing with your head and your ridiculous,over-blown emotional responses are testament to that...without the pressure of making a livelihood you can relax and make plays with freedom and try get on a roll again....at the very least it will put you in good stead till football when you can hit it hard.
its not quitting "the dream",its just re-adjusting the parameters of it a little and giving you more flexibility till ya get to a point where you can say "i can do this seriously full-time".....and working just half a week(or watever it takes to get by) is a shiitload better than the fulltime slog you were doing before im sure anyone wud agree...shiit,i'd take that in a heartbeat.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8889
Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:




Streaks have 0 (zero) predictive value it's been proven both theoretically and empirically since the dawn of gambling. you need to get that kind of reasoning sorted or you're just throwing dice. Do you think the probability of throwing a 6 will increase above 1/6 if you have already thrown a streak of 5 sixes? Will update sheet later today. GL with the plays.

Actually there definitely is value in fading a cold team or riding a hot one. Unlike dice, humans have emotions. Sometimes teams lack motivation, sometimes teams have slumps. Maybe there is something going on in the locker room or the organization that is affecting the team. 
 
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Posted: #8890
The last two nights I ended two six game losing streaks. That's hard to believe. The bucks Tuesday and Indiana Wednesday by fading each team
 
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Posted: #8891
I like the shockers and the mountaineers. Going to split it on both of them. I'm 5-0 my last 5 ncaaB bets. Putting 4K on the mountaineers is too risky. This way if I split both I don't get killed... Thinking 2.2/2 on each or 2.4/2 on each depending if I but half pts or not...
 
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Posted: #8892
The shockers D will be too much for the Irish and westy's press will keep them in it against KU
 
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Posted: #8893
UK I mean. *** Kentucky
 
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Posted: #8894
Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:

kid from the mountaineers guaranteed a victory..

calapari called Huggins and said that he thought they would be in same bracket... cal is worried about this ballgame... I don't need to win just cover the +14 although I see this as a 5 pt game either way

I wouldn't be shocked to see HUGGINS and company shock the world outright

I got 1.1k on me and 14.9K in bank...  im taking 3.7K out from the bank tomorrow if this line is +13.5 still I am buying it up to +14 and putting $4800/$4000 on it at (-120)

I am staying away from the shockers game and putting all faith in BOB HUGGINS and his rugged basketball organization


Said the same exact thing about the kings LOL.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8895
Well here's the histogram for streaks over 2000 NBA games and as expected they follow a bell curve. A perfect random distribution that is.

https://goo.gl/56W0Bb

Though digging deeper I have seen some tiny diskrepancies in that the expected (negative due to vig of course) profit on the money line market is a little less (not significantly) worse when betting teams on a losing streak, and worse when betting teams on winning streaks. This is all on average of course. My interpretation of this is that the market is not 100% efficient, bettors probably overbet "hot" teams moving the line to the advantage of "cold" team bettors.

This might be a tangible benefit when studying streaks, though I assure you that they start and end all in random.

How do you you quantify psychological impact, locker room mood etc? The two following  arguments are very hard to judge since it's impossible to disprove either even though they contradict each other - "teams on a cold streak are bad bets - they are in a bad psychological state, fade them" vs "teams on cold streaks are great bets - they are very motivated to break the bad beat, bet them!"

Don't give much for that line of reasoning, as you probably know if you've followed the thread.

Quantifiable data is how you make lines, and you want to avoid obscuring random noise like streaks. Here's my own from IND@WAS:

https://goo.gl/SWlHRH

Takes into account offensive rating/ defensive rating/pace over last 12 games + season average. Home court adv (which is only tweaked for DEN and UTA, only two teams w a significantly larger hc adv than average in the league) + Referee bias. Then there's a pythagorean expectation for each team based on how they've been doing in the conference, at home/away and as a fav/dog (+ optionally tweaked with how the refs been doing against the spread and the total)

Didn't bet the game but would've made money on both the spread and the total if I followed the projection, which had IND+0.5 instead of +3.0, that's 2.5 pts to my advantage. Pyth exp of IND covering at 59%, which is pretty good. (I'll be the first to admit that a single game doesn't prove or disprove anything, though)

GL with streak betting, If I was you I'd tail the cold teams to limit my losses.

 
Captain
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Posted: #8896
This kid is a compulsive gambler and has no shot to make it as a pro.I recommend he gets a job and attend GA meetings. It is just a matter of time before he hits rock bottom and ruins his life. Lucky he does not have a wife and kids I would feel so sorry for them.
  CG take the money you have left put it away. Quit gambling and seek out a good job.You are a smart guy and can make real money .

I hope I'm wrong .

 
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Posted: #8897
Quote Originally Posted by ILPRATO:

This kid is a compulsive gambler and has no shot to make it as a pro.I recommend he gets a job and attend GA meetings. It is just a matter of time before he hits rock bottom and ruins his life. Lucky he does not have a wife and kids I would feel so sorry for them.
  CG take the money you have left put it away. Quit gambling and seek out a good job.You are a smart guy and can make real money .

I hope I'm wrong .


Lol but he isn't. If he was he wouldn't treat his profession and only source of income as a regular degenerate' hobby. He already said that he's going to bet until he goes broke, which will happen sooner than later. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8898
W L P W% Profit
Parlays 0 2 0 - -$1,200
Moneyline bets 0 3 0 - -$2,100
Single spread bets 50 41 2 54.95% -$4,817

Grand total 50 46 2 - -$8,117

https://goo.gl/lfl5IT
 
Captain
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Posted: #8899
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:


Bermax. stop with your fancy facts. I'll give you a fact...

3-6-13 theory works!!!!

 Had me laughing.

Bermax is definitely on the leaderboard in this thread for dropping some VERY solid, and applicable thoughts on how to be successful.  It's really sad that it's all falling on CG's deaf ears, but hopefully others reading this will learn a few things, I know I have. 


 
 
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Posted: #8900
Bermax is more suitable to be a pro handicapper than CG, who is actually a "professional". 
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