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Indianapolis at Chicago (02/04/2007)

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TORONTO

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Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 12:46 AM ET #76

Quote Originally Posted by dannyc:

i gotcha buckner, i am such a huge bears fan and more importantly a huge football fan and i am still fuming about the lack of respect the bears got versus the saints. and it kills me that people that might know something about football and gambling missed it so bad, i don't think there was 1 person on here pushing the bears yesterday. i mean, did anyone besides me go all in on the bears yesterday? i thought it was free cash.

When did you mention to us that you went all in ??

dtownmike

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Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 1:11 AM ET #77

BreakaBookie

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Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 1:33 AM ET #78

JTHOLLYWOOD........................ ok ill stop the weather.......... i like your under pick as well ...... GL

drJ

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Posts: 6898

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 2:14 AM ET #79

Quote Originally Posted by 3rd :

I disagree with you on that my friend. That field was coming up in chucks and provided poor footing for both teams. I don't care what pc bullshit the Saints said, they are a carpet team and if nothing else it took them out of their comfort zone. They got caught in a momentum wave & didn't recover. Colts had no momentum early yesterday & turned it on big time.

I said before the game yesterday that Maroney was going to be a non-factor, he was worn out - he hit the wall.

There isn't a db tandem in this league that can shut down the Colts offense, they have too many options. Addai, Rhodes, Clark, who had 137 yesterday and presents a big matchup problem for the Bears, Moorehead, Wayne & the best wideout in the game in Harrison. Wayne & Harrison are the best route runners in this league, & Manning puts those guys in position to make plays every time with his ability to read a D. For all the success the Saints had this year, they are very young and not playoff tested like the Colts. And trust me, they can run the rock, check the stats. I will say yesterday was the first time I didn't notice any 2nd half letdown by the Bears D in several weeks & I know they will bring their A game.

You are also not looking hard enough at the Colts defense here, they matchup exceptionally well against the Bears. They cause havoc in the backfield, and last I looked this isn't a good thing against Grossman. Get him off his game early & this could turn into a romp. They shut down the run throughout the playoffs against some of the best backs in this league, and the only team to have any success was the Patriots & Tom Brady & that was through the air. On his best day Grossman is no Tom Brady, and that's coming from a Gator fan here. Do you want to be down 14 with the Bears offense against the Colts? That happens & this one's over. And if Grossman insists on only passing downfield against this Tampa 2 D expect a few picks. And as good as Benson & Jones are, they will be a non-factor if the Colts get a decent lead, Lovie will bail on the running game.

Bears have a big edge with Devin Hester, and if the Colts cover kicks like they did yesterday the Bears will enjoy excellent field position just like they did yesterday.

Colts have an edge in coaching. Mentor/student thing + playoff experience. Belichek/Mangini?

This is looking like the best Super Bowl matchup I've seen in a long time. Like I said there's lots of angles to look at here and we have time. Vegas put up a great number here with 7, but no matter who was here AFC/NFC that's the number you were going to get give or take a point. No doubt Colts are public after yesterday and that is a big part of my thinking. I am in a great position to cap this game, I'm on a roll right now and I don't need to play it. I'm sitting on a 7-1 future with the Colts, and I'm trying to take the dog, which is how I cap anyway. Like I said I'm going to celebrate the ass-whoopin I put on my man yeterday for a few days & then get down to business.

congats!!!, im curious what youll do with your future bet, let it ride or try a middle with 7.5 or ml bears. bet your trying to sort that out.

i had the same thing with the steelers last year and tried for amiddle at 4.5 and missed.

Quote Originally Posted by 3rd :

I said before the game yesterday that Maroney was going to be a non-factor, he was worn out - he hit the wall.

Bears have a big edge with Devin Hester, and if the Colts cover kicks like they did yesterday the Bears will enjoy excellent field position just like they did yesterday.

Colts have an edge in coaching. Mentor/student thing + playoff experience. Belichek/Mangini?

congats!!!, im curious what youll do with your future bet, let it ride or try a middle with 7.5 or ml bears. bet your trying to sort that out.

i had the same thing with the steelers last year and tried for amiddle at 4.5 and missed.

phancard

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Posts: 3705

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 2:52 AM ET #80

buckner22

No. Points: 70
Date Joined: 11/10/2006

Posted: 1/22/2007 6:27:24 PM

And Phancard, I enjoy your posts, and respect them. With all due respect, the Saints didn't give the ball away, the Bears took it from them, as they did all year. There is a point when what people perceive as fluke becomes trend, and 18 games ought to be enough to earn some respect for what the Bears are, an outstanding defensive and special teams club that can score with anyone, especially against the Colts D that can be had.

Thanks Bucker, I appreciated your thought here , But Lets not forget that Even b4 the championship games last sunday, The AFC was given the NFC 6.5pts.. You don't realize that the books know which conference wa the superior one? , I can't seem to remember which NFC Team was the last team to win the Superbowl ? I think it was the Ram.. AFC teams dominated the interconference play this year as well.. Most superbowl games are blow out and high scoring but boring games.. except for the last few years that involves NE, which seems to win with a last second FG.. I just tthink the bear are outmatch here offensively.. You can't expect the bears Defense to get turnovers , and special team to put up pts in every game.. Like I said if the Colts has one or fewer turnover in this game.. The bears will Lose .. well Gl with your pick bro..

phancard

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Posts: 3705

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 2:56 AM ET #81

AFC > NFC = FACT, admit it or not,

ps, i am not a colts fan, could care less who wins as long as I put $$ in my wallets..

Colts , + Over

phancard

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Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 2:58 AM ET #82

Lets see Manning vs Grossman ?? tough call here..

phancard

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Posts: 3705

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 3:12 AM ET #83

Lets just look how the bears get here? granted it is not their chose, but they struggle with a not so good seahawk team this year, and a good but not experienced Saints team that nobody thinks was a superbowl team this year.. While the Colts has to travel to baltimore against the best defensive team , and a great proven team like NE .. I can't see the Bears beating Baltimore and NE to reach to the superbowl do you? They might cover the huge spread here, but NO way will they win outright.. I am out, GL to all

phancard

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Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 3:21 AM ET #84

Imeant to say that it is not their choice ,, sorry typo

lefty1209

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Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 6:04 AM ET #85

phancard...if it was that easy...grossman or manning...we'd all be cashin in. unfortunately teams have to play defense. in order to stop peyton...you must be good for 60 minutes....in order to stop rex...sometimes you just need to put 11 on the field!!!

buckner22

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Posts: 86

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 11:27 AM ET #86

I agree this is a great matchup, but the 7 pts is just out there to get equal plays on each team, and not an indication that the Colts are 7 pts better than the Bears on a nuetral site. That has to be taken into account. The Colts definately struggled down the stretch of the regualr season, as did the Bears, but the Colts did it with more on the line. The Bears had to scale their offense back, as to not show too much for the playoffs, while the Colts had to continue to win. I agree also that the AFC was dominant this year, but throw that out the window for these two teams. They are pretty evenly matched, and know each other more than one might expect. Lovie and Tony are close, and paid close attention to each other games all year. Niether team will run this game up on the other due to the respect each has for each other.

Take the 7, and possible 7.5 and ride the grizzly bears. I'll take the money line on the bears as a fan, but taking the points is all about business.

I can't wait to start talking about the props in this game. Screw the coin flip. Bet something that you have a reasonable amount of input on.

anyway, we're already on our way with a great post here. Since I'm not a big hoops player, I'll certainly miss this for the next 9 months.

Ski

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Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 4:42 PM ET #87

4 Point Colts win

and everybody is

Lift your skirt up and grab your balls

Think hard about the money line

Use the points for teaser's & Parlay's including the Bears if you make those type of bets(I quit those)

So Remember The Colts don't mind giving up a late TD up by 8 to 13 pts... And they aren't going to try to score on the last play up by 1-6.

Colts Money Line and the Under sound good to me.

Even though I love underdog money lines and overs parlayed togeather (but I quit that)

Forget about props

Forget about Parlay's

Forget about Teaser's

Do yourself a favor and take the

Money Line

Good luck

Ski

bigeiii

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Posts: 5870

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 5:00 PM ET #88

Think of SB XLI this way........how many nonWinning SB teams could beat either of this years two SB teams???

As neither Indy nor Chi-town looks like a complete team to me. (Indy's middle defense; Grossman & da Bears passing attack). This now jus' has the look & feel of P.Man's year. That's not one of my more scientific stats backed takes; but that's my gut's take on this one. When I look at the stats......this is what I'm seeing.....

In 2 playoff games, Chi-town has outGained their opponents by an ave. of 15 yards! The Indy outGaining ave. over 3 games? How 'bout 154! That would be 154 on ave. vs. the #1 defensive team (B'more), the #7 defensive team (NE), & #16 defensive team (K-C). Da Bears have played the 11th defensive team (NO) & the 19th defensive team (SEA). That's a big diff', & if you ask me Indy has done better than Chi-town vs. tougher competition. In fact the Colts have a 40 yard Offensive Margin edge, but a bizaro 120 yard Defensive Margin edge on ave. when these 2 teams five play-off games are compared head2head.

I don't want P.Man to win, but unless he jus' goes RSN Kursk & beaches himself on 3-Mile Island and melts totally down, I gotta go w/ P.Man's 10.54% edge in completion%, & his 12 edge in Passing Ratio. This is not my official pick, as I wanna see the Prop Lines 1st. But..........I'm not even sure of Chi-town+20, on a 14 point teaser. I do have Indy+7.5 on a 14 point teaser. If that is the biggest Indy line I can get that's all I will play.

bigeiii

Buckeyeosu23

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Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 6:27 PM ET #89

COLTS

BreakaBookie

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Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 7:54 PM ET #90

great analysis bigeii.......

i like Colts in the Under

ontheedge

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Posts: 394

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 8:12 PM ET #91

Take the Bears in this one...It will be close, just like NE. Indi will win, but it will be by a field goal and Vinatarie will be the hero all over again...

pimp_daddy

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Posts: 39

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 9:25 PM ET #92

Im talking the impossible but thinking grossman will choke in the BIG GAME......

GROSSMAN chokes the regular games...

But if he plays good second half, he might cover the spread....

THIS YEAR IS HORSE SHOES YEAR

Indy Colts........HOPFULLY POINTS COME DOWN

stormyweather

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Posts: 8

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 9:57 PM ET #93

The Colt's no huddle offense will force the Bears to commit to one style of defensive coverage in the secondary, lest they get caught running guys off and on the field. They'll play zone, guarding against the big play, leaving Peyton Manning to chip away at the under-neath stuff. Conversley, the Bears will grind it out on the ground on offense in an attempt to keep Peyton Manning off the field. Expect lots of field goals and guese what...probably rain...after all...this is Miami. For those of you total players out there, don't believe the hype about the Over trend in past Superbowl history. This game will be a grind. Keep an eye on the total duirng the next two weeks as the game approaches...if it's going up...let it go until kick-off and cash the under. If you see it moving down, lock it in ASAP...under. It's the under.

dannyc

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Posts: 16

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 10:12 PM ET #94

HEY TORONTO:

sorry i didnt mention i was betting and winning on the bears sunday, i don't spend a lot of time posting, i like to do my own research and go with my gut feeling, has done well for me especially this year and if you are that interested in what i do i have 5k ml +210 on the bears, sorry if that isnt a big bet for you.

and for you chicago fans, does any of all this have the feel of the 2005 white sox? start out hot, slow down to almost nothing, accumulate a ton of disbelievers and then dominate in the playoffs. seems like ever since the bulls disappeared in 98, chitown gets no respect.

brownhornet21

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Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 10:20 PM ET #95

anybody else's online site getting shut down?

dannyc

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Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 10:22 PM ET #96

tank cleared for south beach!!!!!!!!!

danstyk

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Posts: 871

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 10:42 PM ET #97

Damn, some of you guys are trying real hard to make this the worst thread ever. But with 2 weeks to go there's still time on the clock.

I prolly won't even bet this game, as I got cleaned out on NE -3. I do mostly college FB and do my big cash out after Jan 1, saving a little bit for fun in the BCS and playoffs. Rode it with NE and a small side on the 'Aints. Also gettin' set for a week in Puerto Rico the Monday after, so I'll be distracted with that.

I do think this is Peyton's year, and don't see how they can lose. But after the Bears showing Sun. it is hard to take 7 for granted. Still, all through the first half Grossman did his best to implode that team. Score should have been more like 66-14 with a good QB. He is no game manager... he is an assistant manager who sometimes blows off work. His entire game is throw an alley-oop pass, and pray his WR boxes out or gets a pass int call. One of these years the NFL will change the rules to disallow 50-yd PI penalties.

Looking back to last year, I can't help but think that were it not for Tony Dungy's son's suicide late in the year, they may well have won then too. Nothing vs. the Stillers, as they got great at the right time. But how can any team survive such an emotional tragedy? This is a solid Colt team, and they are believing right now. And the AFC just rocks all over the NFC. I would take any of the 4 teams -- ok, forget Balt, I would take Indy, SD, or NE over Chicago. And I have nothing vs. da Beers franchise, in fact I like 'em and have been there twice.

I would not be concerned with PM's thumb, it looked pretty good on that first pass after the ball changed hands. One of the plays of the game in fact. Heat should be a non-factor as both teams should be in Miami for a full week to adjust.

I have no opinion on the O/U.

BigDaddy, hope you went with the Pats at the half last week!

ColonelJim, way to rebound, just lay off the Nittany Lions BBall.

3rd&L, you know yer gonna lay that 7 come next week. But see if you can get lucky with a lower line, or maybe you want to buy a point or so. I might also look out for some good props, as you'll already be good if they win it. This one is for Archie... and he gets the game ball.

Meanwhile I'm looking for an over/under on how many glory to gods there will be after this Colt win. In case you weren't keeping track, I counted three -- Polian, Dungy and Peyton all gave the ref in the sky credit.

BOL all...

Damn, some of you guys are trying real hard to make this the worst thread ever. But with 2 weeks to go there's still time on the clock.

I have no opinion on the O/U.

BigDaddy, hope you went with the Pats at the half last week!

ColonelJim, way to rebound, just lay off the Nittany Lions BBall.

BOL all...

3rd & Long

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Posts: 4

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 11:24 PM ET #98

Quote Originally Posted by danstyk:

Damn, some of you guys are trying real hard to make this the worst thread ever. But with 2 weeks to go there's still time on the clock.

I have no opinion on the O/U.

BigDaddy, hope you went with the Pats at the half last week!

ColonelJim, way to rebound, just lay off the Nittany Lions BBall.

BOL all...

Have fun In Puerto Rico, I'll be hung over from the game & up to my eyeballs with work as usual (tax accountant) You're right, I'll probably lay the 7, but for nowhere near what I had out there last week. I knew last week was the time to make my stand. As a fan I can honestly say I won't be crushed if they don't get it done in Miami - last week made the season successful & exorcised a lot of demons. I hope the Colts don't feel the same way, and from the look on Manning's face I don't think he's finished what he started yet.

I am however going to try to finish the playoff run I've had here and put forth my honest assesment of this game to all here on the board.

So far my thinking is that this line is what we all knew it would be. The most interesting thing I've noticed is the spread in the last three for the Bears. -9.5 that most thought they would easily cover (L), -3.5 that most thought they wouldn't cover (W) and a whole bunch of folks thinking that +7 here is a gift. Meanwhile the Colts are 3-0 ats and laying a TD outside the dome. I've been 5-0 ATS on all of these, and my initial lean is to give the points. I'm convinced the Colts run D is fixed, Manning gets no pressure & the Colts get the early lead. Last weeks games were both filled with momentum, and I can see this one turning out lopsided if the Colts get on the lead early, which they haven't done yet in the palyoffs. You have to believe that the Bears will do everything they can to run the ball & control the clock. If they can do that they have a very good chance. If the Colts can stop that & make Rexy beat them, it's over early AND a Colts blowout. Stll thinking this one over.

Quote Originally Posted by danstyk:

Damn, some of you guys are trying real hard to make this the worst thread ever. But with 2 weeks to go there's still time on the clock.

I have no opinion on the O/U.

BigDaddy, hope you went with the Pats at the half last week!

ColonelJim, way to rebound, just lay off the Nittany Lions BBall.

BOL all...

I am however going to try to finish the playoff run I've had here and put forth my honest assesment of this game to all here on the board.

blueglass

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 72

Posted: Jan. 23, 2007 - 11:39 PM ET #99

This will be a walk in the park for the colts. And I'm STOKED!!! Colts take an early lead and never look back.
Colts O vs Bears D = pretty good matchup
Colts D vs Bears O = picks, picks and sacks

Manning is like 9-1 or something like that against NFC teams, he literally eats them for breakfast. They will try and blitz him, and fail like every NFC team does and he'll make big plays. Grossman will get picked atleast twice. Honestly I don't believe this will even be a contest, and I don't even care, cause I'm gonna love every minute of the Bears gettin the BEAT DOWN!!!!

COLTS