Nobody wants to bet the under in the Super Bowl, especially if you are on the favorite. You guys remember when the Bosox came back to beat the Yankees coupla years back? Even the Curse of the Bambino couldn't stop them from steamrolling over the Cards in the Series. 2 weeks is plenty of time for the Colts to come off the emotional high of the Pats conquest and get down to business with da Bears. The Bears are solid everywhere but QB, and i think it is hilarious that everyone likes Bears and Over. I love it, too - I am betting the reverse, the Colts and the Under. To echo what I posted in the Indy/NE thread late last week, the scorefests last weekend set up over bettors for the Super Bowl. All the public money counters the wiseguy action, already the consensus on this site is Bears with the points.
Colts, 3-0 ATS these playoffs, vs Bears, 1-1. I wanted New Orleans, but nobody's perfect. I can't see the Colts not covering, much less losing outright. I love everybody's comments here, but matchup this game as if it were going to be played before we knew the outcome of the championship games just played, and the Colts / under pick is easy. So what we hit AFC Favorite / under from a low seed last year in the SB, too. Nobody expects it, nobody will play it, so that tells you it is the play. The Bears / Over play is so obvious that I'm only going to hedge my Colts 15-2 SB win prop bet from 3 weeks ago with a small Bears ML / Under prop that will pay huge dividends if it hits. I like the no Bears ML / Over combo enough to leave it naked and take my losses like a man (cry!) if it hits. The cardinal rule on hedges is to never make a bet that you know is a loser.
I welcome anyone who wants to go evaluate the last 10 years playoff spread results. When an unbeaten ATS playoff team matches up with a once-beaten ATS team (or more) in the Super Bowl, the unbeaten wins the money again. Anybody else cash in on Philly and Carolina in their Super Bowl losses? The books counted on dog ML plays and favorite spread plays, and they hit their holiday middle twice in a row. I'm an accountant by training (thankfully, no longer by profession), so I used my inner nerd to track this kind of stuff starting 8 years ago.
As before, I know everyone has their opinions and trends. On the AFC side this year I did my Carnac three weeks ago and all held true, so like Chris Berman always picking SF and Buffalo in the 90's, I'm sticking with the Colts / under unless I see some crazy line moves late next week. Colts go 4-0, sweep all the money in these playoffs, and Peyton and Tony Dungy climb the mountain. Of course there will be Bears banter in the media to get action. I feel like a dunce for not reading the signs in time to play more than a small hedge on the Bears last week after all the talk about how good the Saints were late. Won't let that happen again. Let's see if Thumbgate goes anywhere. I just hope a Colts player doesnt go AWOL or get arrested for solicitation on Feb. 3.
I'm thinking a 30-13 or 31-10 game, agreed that the Colts will fall back to ball control and clock once they get ahead, that should keep the score low and take FG out of the equation, so long as Rex baby doesn't throw a couple of pick-6's to the Colts D. Given the theatrics last week, the total should have opened at 51 or 52 for the Super Bowl - isn't anyone else suspicious it did not, given the high-scoring Bear covers this season and the newfound Colts offense? GL everyone.
FlyHi
Established in 1995,
& thanks Scorpio, I highly value your opinion, and believe me you are already more of a capper than you'd care to admit to.
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