Running my tennis model's numbers against the no-vig market for today's matches. Biggest gaps (start times UTC, prices from last night):
- Basilashvili vs Rodionov (Vienna, 16:30): model has Rodionov 57.8%, market 44.0%. Biggest disagreement on the card at (2.28).
- Pohankova vs Osaka (Tokyo, Oct 29 01:30): Osaka 86.8% vs 74.8% at (1.29).
- Hijikata vs Fritz (Basel, 17:00): Hijikata 25.9% vs 15.2% at (7.25). Small stake territory.
- Rune vs Hurkacz (Basel, 18:10): Rune 45.7% vs 37.3% at (2.68).
- Mertens vs Fernandez (Tokyo, Oct 29 01:30): Mertens 59.0% vs 50.8% at (1.91).
- Tiafoe vs Musetti (Vienna, 13:40): Tiafoe 61.0% vs 53.1% at (1.87).
Since Oct 7 these model sides are 90-111 for +14.14u at flat stakes (ROI +7.0%, longshots above (8.00) excluded); last 7 days 17-18, +0.98u. Anyone else on Rodionov today?
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Running my tennis model's numbers against the no-vig market for today's matches. Biggest gaps (start times UTC, prices from last night):
- Basilashvili vs Rodionov (Vienna, 16:30): model has Rodionov 57.8%, market 44.0%. Biggest disagreement on the card at (2.28).
- Pohankova vs Osaka (Tokyo, Oct 29 01:30): Osaka 86.8% vs 74.8% at (1.29).
- Hijikata vs Fritz (Basel, 17:00): Hijikata 25.9% vs 15.2% at (7.25). Small stake territory.
- Rune vs Hurkacz (Basel, 18:10): Rune 45.7% vs 37.3% at (2.68).
- Mertens vs Fernandez (Tokyo, Oct 29 01:30): Mertens 59.0% vs 50.8% at (1.91).
- Tiafoe vs Musetti (Vienna, 13:40): Tiafoe 61.0% vs 53.1% at (1.87).
Since Oct 7 these model sides are 90-111 for +14.14u at flat stakes (ROI +7.0%, longshots above (8.00) excluded); last 7 days 17-18, +0.98u. Anyone else on Rodionov today?
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