Posted:
#276
It would take a miracle to cover your Alcaraz -2.5 bets
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The French Open - One play a day! (Community thread)
12-1. The streak breaks. Sorry for those who tailed. Lets see if we can finish with 14-1 record. This is the hardest time to cap but itms also the most exciting tennis.
Posted:
#288
@spl1t
I’m super inebriated atm and I’m also a self proclaimed wonens tennis shit advisor, but what I’ll say is that Iga’s matches, have been landslides, she’s been broken but her matches have never exceeded 7.5 games in this tournament. I think for this total to hit you need to consider the over. Is this a three setter?
2
Posted:
#294
The last time they played in 2022, when Paolini was in nowhere near the form she's in now, Iga won 6-3 6-0. So 15 total games but there were 9 total breaks of serve. In the first set Paolini won 1 service game and broke Iga twice while Iga won 2 service games and broke Jasmine 4 times so 6 total breaks in that set alone.
You have to look at it like this: each time Paolini breaks Iga that will require Iga to win more games to win the set which will likely mean another break for Iga. So if Paolini breaks Iga once that could almost count as 2 breaks. Let's say Iga wins 6-0 6-1. 3 breaks first set. Second set Iga goes up 5-0 after breaking Paolini 3 more times. Then Paolini breaks Iga to make it 5-1 followed by Iga breaking back for 6-1. That makes 8 total breaks.
To me this is a tricky prop to cap. Iga is the best returner in the game. Paolini is also a good returner, which had really been the main way she won matches before this year. But now she's found her serve as well, especially over the past couple months on clay. Not great power but excellent placement and spin. As I noted earlier in the thread, she remarkably lost only a single service point in her first set against Rybakina.
Personally I like Paolini as player to break service first at +265. I also like other first set bets like over 8.5 games (-130) or a first set game spread on Paolini if you find one. I think Paolini has a much better chance at performing well in the first set while Iga gets used to her spin and angles. I also lean towards Paolini's game spread at +6.5. I am on it at +7.5 which I got when it momentarily moved to that yesterday on FanDuel. Sometime in the 3rd set of Zverev yesterday I used the profit boost to parlay Zverev 3-1 sets + Paolini +7.5 games boosted to +301.
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Posted:
#298
I bet Iga ML. -2000 and won 100. Lol. Reckless bet but I’m way up in the French - Cashed huge on a Zverev - Nadal and Ruud matches , cashed ML Carlos and Zverev. Carlos is amazing on clay and Zverev is playing the best tennis of his career. Carlos -256 seems extremely high under these circumstances. Maybe worth a ML parlay w Carlos and Celtics .
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