Melbourne

I can’t wait to read what you think of the women’s match’s today. I feel like every dog could win outright including jovic.

You can do it on both Draftkings and FanDuel. 

This one didn't hit cause Mertens couldn't hold her last service games but I hit with one on the Keys match earlier in the week. That one I used an alt over instead of the spread but same concept. 

In the past I've had success using that tactic on Sabalenka matches. Basically if you think someone can keep it close it tends to be a good bet with her because she usually figures out a way to win the set no matter what. And you can get really good odds with lower spreads. Like the Potapova match that was 7-6 7-6, if you took 2-0 and say +4.5 it would've paid 8-1 or better. Even +5.5 in that one was probably 4 or 5 to 1.

I do think she has a chance. We can't discount her against anyone anymore. She still doesn't have the big win imo because I think Paolini was very far from her best and Sabalenka is sooo hard to beat. But the skill is obviously there with Jovic and the amount of improvement she has made in the past 5 or 6 months is insane, part of it probably being her body filling out a little more.

She turned 18 in December and is therefore eligible to play the full WTA schedule and it's as if she flipped an internal switch to instantly become a legitimate top 10 contender. And Joker kind of taking her under his wing can't really hurt things either.

Again the Paolini win is her only top 20 victory and she only has I think 5 top 50 victories but at this point the idea of her being a top 10 player is absolutely no longer a question of if, but when. And when could totally be this week. Sabalenka is unquestionably the best player in the world right now but Jovic has nothing to lose either.

I'm still thinking about this match right now though. Last round had crappy matchups but all four of the quarterfinals are doozies. My initial read on the other 3 would probably be Gauff, Anisimova, Rybakina.

Should also point out how chalky this tournament has been (which has made things kind of difficult for me). First time since 1998 that all 6 top seeds are in the quarters. And Jovic winning would probably be the only outcome that would really qualify as much of an upset since the other matches are all so close. 

Even if it's not likely that she wins it is hard to say that there wouldn't be some value on her ML though. I was somewhat surprised that she's listed as a bigger dog than Mboko was. Mboko is great and has accomplished more so far in her young career but the eye test tells me that Jovic is the better player of the two currently. This is also evident when you watch the young pair play doubles together.

Big play: Iva Jovic +5.5 (-118)

Small play: Iva Jovic Set 1 ML (+330)

@bringit not sure about any of these matches. Rabyanki and pegulia . Coco has been shaky on service. 

thanks for you’re insight. 

@Minigonzo

 Gauff is always shaky on serve so that's nothing new. But she makes up for it being the best returner in the game. And she's actually been serving better than usual here which could make her dangerous. Only exception to that being the first set against Baptiste and some of the first match against Rak.

That being said, the best bet on this match is likely the over 21.5. Svit is playing incredible herself and I think there's a pretty good chance we see a 12 or 13 game set and/or Coco wins in 3. 

First set over 9.5 (+105) & 10.5 (+270) are also solid plays.

I wouldn't trust Gauff to cover any kind of spread here but she tends to use her ridiculous athleticism to find ways to win matches like this.

1/26

Siniakova/Verbeek ML + Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (+102)

@bringit

 Quite surprised to see Anisimova -135 favorite. Considering she’s 0-3 against Pegula. also coming off a spread non cover against wang. Feels like a hammer spot on her. Curious on your thoughts 

I've gone a bit cold but fwiw I like Rybakina and Anisimova to win tonight. 

Also like Siniakova Townsend and a there's a play in Manila but still finalizing that.

Really exciting match here as the hometown kids get it done again