Friday's Action

Good morning, running to Starbucks for a treat, then for our morning read. Let's find some winners today fellas!!!! 

Good luck today W

Thanks U, let us know if you see something we should fire on.

First play locked in. 

Taylor Townsend ML +145

Second play locked in. 

Stefanos Tsitsipas ML +155

less go 

Third play, have to roll with the hot hand his previous scalps Joker and Berrettini impressive. 

Mariano Navone ML -105

@wgomel21

 Update for your last 50 plays 20W-30L 40%   Keep up the great work! 

BOL to you today!  

@Yankdis1

 Tool boy...mammy is calling...

Paroparo22 

Jars 

TT

Fun fact, against Preston Townsend had a 72% 1stIn and won 100% of those points. 23 of 23. I don't know if I've ever seen that. 

Dropped a total of 4 points on serve. Didn't face a  single break point or even deuce on serve. Won 61% of return points. 72% of total points. What a performance.

Dominance ratio 4.87. Don't know that I've ever seen one that high. Maybe a couple of Iga's matches at Roland Garros a few years back. Extremely rare

I read somewhere that Monfils was arriving to the grounds 30 minutes before his matches started here. Did you see this?

Have not, he is unorthodox so nothing would surprise me with him.

Today's CFB play. 

Miami/ Stanford Over 47.5

Pegula sitting at -115 right now 

@bringit

 Thoughts? Hammer or fade away?

@TSix

 I think there's value on Pegula at anything close to even money

Townsend phat 

Leylah started strong which was probably to be expected. Pegula started slow and then she pretty clearly tanked the remainder of the first set after it got to 4-1. This is on brand for Pegula. She does this. I grabbed under 7.5 for +750 when it was 3-1 deuce because of this possibility. As long as Leylah could get that hold to make it 4-1 my assumption was that Pegs would let the rest of the set go and allow herself to serve first in the second. Sure enough Leylah got the hold and Pegula was broken to love the next game.

What happens with the live betting is that the algorithm comes into the match with a certain odds of Pegula winning a point. But as the match progresses those odds change based on what's happening on court. So when Leylah is dominating the algorithm adjusts so that Pegula's odds of winning a point become less and less and therefore her odds of winning the match become less and less. 

But when a player is tanking, as I believe Pegula was, it skews the odds and offers some value. If Pegula had lost the first set in a tiebreak she would still be a decent favorite to win the match rather than being basically a pickem.

@bringit

 Very good observation with the algos 

TT

I think this Noskova match might be a good opportunity to try one of these exotic parlays. The 2-0 + game spread variety. 

I hit last night with Rybakina and today with Sabalenka 2-0 and +6.5

For this match though I'm thinking something small with bigger odds like Noskova 2-0 & o19.5 (+305)

Or 2-0 & o21.5 (+650) and hope for a breaker. Smaller bet but I just think this could be perfect match for something like this

anyone firing more on TT? haven't been watching other than flashscore ^^