AO Open selections

Pavly with 27% 1st serves in and 0-2 on break point and loses 1st set    Sums up this tourney for me.

Record:  10-8 +7.11 units

AO Record:  3-6 +1.26 units

She is playing exactly the way I expected her to play from the beginning... looks like she could still cover the -4.5

Hope it hits for you Jarrett

Na Li comes into tonights match with an 8-0 record on the year...she won the tourney last week defeating Kutzy and Clijsters in the finals... semi-finalist last year she will have serious asperations of winning with Serena out of the picture.

Azarenka comes into the match with wins over three players outside  the top 100. She won all in straight sets

Head to head is 2-1 in favor of Na Li .... but Aza won the latest meeting

Thoughts:

Its hard not to back Na Li here.... she is 8-0 on the year and is playing great tennis. She has a balanced game that can trouble any player on the tour.

Azarenka has talent and ability...but sometimes can really feel the heat and nerves. She had Serena in trouble awhile back before retiring because of the heat.  When on ...Victoria has the game to beat anyone...she has powerful groundies and a decent 1st serve.

I just don't think Aza will be able to be consistant enough here. I expect Na Li to put pressure on here and not let up.

Na Li -112 for me

I finally picked a winner

Na Li very well could take this title...playing some solid tennis right now.

AO record: 4-6 +2.26 units

Overall record: 11-8 +8.11 units

Have a good night everyone

Am looking forward to the mens semi-finals... would love to see a Murray/ Nadal rematch.

Not seeing much I like tonight... might think about Murray on the games line... he has looked rock solid and should give Dolgo alot of problems

Have been going over the womens final... Kimmy and Na Li have met 6 times and 4 out of the 6 matches have gone over the listed total. Two of the matches have gone three sets and two others included 7-5 sets.

Na Li has shown she can handle the bigger stage. She played Serena into two breakers last year in the semi's and defeats Wozi here in another over match.

Kim certainly has more experience in finals... she has been in this spot before and will know exactly what to expect.  Na Li will have a ton of pressure on her tonight as she carries the expectations of a whole nation...a very large one at that.

I am leaning the over here but haven't locked into anythins as of yet... still want to think about this one a little more.

Na Li is a different style from Vera... I would think she will want to try and take control of the rallies as well. Vera was just bossed around the court... the match was always Kim's to win or lose.

Is always a chance that Kim wins in a rout... I can see Na Li winning in a rout as well if Kim hits errors and struggles with her serve.  I just think this might be a tight match given their history.

Matches have gone over the 21.5  4 out of 6... so getting plus money on it makes me seriously consider it.

Might still change my mind though... its hard to go against Kim's experience

Vera is more like Wozniacki than she is Na Li.  Na Li is an aggressive player... she goes for winners and likes to take control of rallies. Her match with Wozi has a prime example of this.... Wozi hardly hit any winners in  the match... it was either a Na Li winner or error.

The advantage Na Li has is she hits very flat. She has the ability to stretch Kim out if she is hitting her groundies solid. Have to remember that most bullies don't like to be bullied.

Kim really hasn't played anyone who is that aggressive... Makarova would be the most out of the group. The rest of her opponents have been passive players who have allowed Kim to dictate the rallies and match.

Na Li has the weapons to take control of rallies and will need to do it. You have to make Kim feel the pressure and cannot let he stand in the middle of the court making you run side to side.  Most of the match with Vera.. Kim had her on a string.

My only concern is nerves... flat hitters such as Na Li don't have any margain for error... if they are off a little they are toast. See the 1st set versus Wozi. And Kim is smart enough to realize that if Na L istarts makign errors she will just feed her the ball and allow her to hang herself.

Tough match to call really

No play for me.... just can't lock in.

Good luck everyone on whatever you decide

Thats not the way I work... I don't wager for the fun of it. As you can see I am not a volume bettor... I look for circumstances that I like and feel comfortable with. Just don't feel this is a spot I want to gamble on.

My insight is above so people can make up their own minds on this one. I just have no idea what is going to happen

And that is why he is a winner.