AO Open selections

Went back and made sure I have my Covers record accurate. I will post it every day... sorry for not including it sooner

Overall record:  10-6 +9.11 units

AO record: 3-4 +3.26 units

All bets are 1 unit wagers unless I mention otherwise...chalk plays is to win 1 unit and dog plays is risking.

Want to thank Bojana Jovanovski for saving my tourney last night. If anyone watched the match you will know that this girl can play. Her best is top 10 material... she was beating Vera good and Vera wasn't playing bad...was just being overpowered.

Going forward she might be a little overrated by books though. Might have to look to fade her next tourney in the right spot. I would expect a little letdown after this great run she has had.

Matches I am tracking for tonight:

Manasieva vs. Sevastova

Niculescu vs. Frannie

Stak vs. Bedo

Lube vs. Mugro

Thanks absolute... would have been hurting big time if Bojana had lost. But was a match I was looking towards since the draw was released. 

Have to give Vera some credit... she didn't meltdown...if she had she would have been whipped in 2 sets...but she kept her head.... is a good sign for her going forward.

Tommy Robredo enters tonights match with wins over Somdev and Mardy the first two rounds. Tommy who is trying to regain some old form is a player who is solid off the ground but typically doesn't have the weapons to hurt people on hard courts.

Sergiy Stakhovsky enters with straight set wins over Brands and Kubot.  Sergiy has a solid service game and decent forehand... and has looked confident and motivated thus far.

Head to head is 1-1 with both played on hards last season.

Thoughts:

Robredo was the beneficiary of moping Mardy. After Fish dominated the 1st set he lost the plot and then lost his mind. Robredo was smart to recognize this and to allow Fish to beat himself with ue's.  Tommy is certainly capable in this match. He is solid off the ground and is your typical clay court grinder.

Segiy though has looked confident this week. He has been solid behind serve and seems to be timing the ball quite well. Segiy certainly has the stronger service game and weaponry off the ground. The question will be can he keep up his level of play over a 5 set match? If he can stay positive and aggressive he should advance here.

The point that makes me really like this match is the line movement. Bedo opened as the favorite and is now the dog. Thus far in this tourney... the line movements have been right on point.

I am going to wait and see where the line goes the next couple of hours. If the line rises I will probably take the games line here. Its the type of match I can see Stak winning in 4.

If anyone has any info or angles please let them fly

good luck everyone

Venus pulled a groin in her last match pretty bad but somehow won the match.

Vesna Manasieva comes into tonights match off winner of 8 of her last 10... she came through qualies and defeated Tio and an injured Bartoli. Taking out the Bartoli match... Vesna is 1-5 in the last year against top 100 players on outdoor hards... her only win was versus Garrigues.

Sevastova comes into the match with wins over Hercog and Wickmayer.  Sevastova is 9-2 in the past year versus players outside the top 100 on outdoor hards. And in the past year as taken scalps such as Stosur- Petrova-Cibulkova-Kvitova and Ivanovic.

The head to head is 1-0 to Manasieva... she won a match back in 08 but was on grass

Thoughts:

I really like the experience of Sevastova here... she was solid versus Wickmayer and has shown in the past year that she is capable of beating top 100 caliber players. Manasieva was going to get flushed by Bartoli until the little tub hurt herself. Was a fortunate break for Manasieva.

The only thing that has me concerned is the line movement. The line has moved towards Manasieva here.

What I am going to do is parlay Sevastova with Stak instead of laying chalk on both.

Parlay:

Stah -134

Sevastova -138

1 unit wins 2.01

good luck everyone tonight

Sage,  Not every line movement is right... but more times than naught in this tourney they have been....especially on matches where the favorites flipped.

Stak bitching about calls and acting like a douche...anyone else see him skirking at times?

Am not counting live in-game wagers... since most don't have access to them.

Stak with a stinker of an effort... guy wasted a fleet of break points and was broken from 40-15 ahead at least 3 times in the match. You could tell Stak was disturbed early in the 2nd set... he was arguing with the chair alot and was acting like a clown..smirking and stuff. Really doing stuff that showed Robredo he was flustered.

Has been a disappointing tourney thus far...still postive...but disappointing.

Record: 10-7 +8.11 units

AO record: 3-5 +2.26 units

Iveta Benesova comes into tonights match with wins over Garrigues and Kirilenko in her 1st two rounds.... Benesova has a record of 4-9 on outdoor hards versus top 50 players.

Pavly comes into the match with wins over Flipkens and Barrois. Interesting stats for Pavly is she is 25-4 on outdoor hards versus players outside the top 50.

The head to head is Pavly 2-0 with a win on grass and indoor

Thoughts:

Very much like Pavly here... she has the weapons to blow Iveta off the court. If she keeps the winners/errors ration positive she should have a very good chance to progress.  One of the keys in womens tennis is holding serve. I just think Pavly's service game is more apt to hold when its needed.

Are some options when it comes to bets... the -4.5 spread is about -115 and the Pavly in 2 sets is -108

I am going with the 2-0 option here... i like less juice and i think it would be tough for Pavly to cover the games line if she loses a set anyway.  But do what you feel comfortable doing

Pavly 2-0 (-108)

good luck everyone

I think the line is a result of Youz's last match versus Kavcic. Youz had the match in the bag and letoff the gas and was fortunate to regroup in time for the win.

I watched the Raonic/Llodra match and was impressed with the kids service game.  He was getting in a solid amount of 1st serves and was dominating behind it. In the tie-breaks he was firing bullets that Llodra had no chance with.

If Raonic serves to the level he did last match he has a shot at this. The warmer conditions should help the ball even more get through the courts.

Problem is Youz is significantly better off the ground. If Youz can get balls back into play and can make the kid move he should get the best of the longer rallies.

I agree that the line is a little short here... I had it around the -500 range. And probably would have been if Youz won in straights.

Raonic is dangerous... the kid reminds me of Mario Ancic or a young Richard Kraijek.

Its a match I am not playing... good luck on whatever you decide