My Bettting Manifesto - long winded theory on sportsgambling.....

Vanzack, Are you limited on the amount a book will let you wager on NCAA totals? I love using Pinnacle because they post them first and there are some totals that stick out like a sore thumb. However I am limited in only being able to wager 142 on the overnight line. By the time I cracked it three times the juice is already up to -150. Can you recommend alternative books for college totals.

Mugg - small timers, medium timers, and big timers all benefit from juice reduction. The fact that you bet less means nothing - your goal is in relation to your bankroll. And what you say about parlays is SO true - heres something the average gambler doesnt consider - PARLAYS HAVE JUICE!!!! On the typical 2 teamer you get 13-5 odds. The real odds are 15-5. THAT IS BIG TIME JUICE!! IF I calculate that correctly that is about -130. TERRIBLE!! If parlays had NO juice then they are a legitimate bet. JZS - I AM GOING TO START A THREAD ON TECHNIQUES TO REDUCE AND TRACK JUICE - give me a couple of days - to be honest I didnt think there would be interest. ||Peace_5.gif' border=0>

Wizdumb & Puck ||an_cheers.gif' border=0> KerryB - YOU HIT IT. Whether you bet 10 bucks or 10 thousand - WHY PAY 10% JUICE EVER!! There is no reason. Billyberue - if I lost my bankroll in 6 weeks I would start over. I dont mean quit the season. I do mean that I would answer my 5 questions again and set a bankroll, goal, timeframe etc. IT IS A CYCLE THAT ENDS WITH A TIMEFRAME OR GOAL OR LOSS BEING THE ONLY THING THAT ENDS IT - AND THEN YOU START AGAIN.

Pressthebet - you are correct - i had 30k on hawaii. I never lied about it. That should tell you something about my readjusted second bankroll of the season. And let me say - I am human. I try to use the 7%-13% rule as much as possible - but 2 or 3 or 4 bets a season I bet more or less - BUT IT IS OUTSIDE OF MY BANKROLL AND GOAL. IT IS NOT PART OF THE CYCLE. Hawaii was a bigger than 13% bet for me but not much bigger - and that money came from outside of my bankroll. GL ||an_cheers.gif' border=0>

AustinTX - be more specific - and maybe I can email you a spreadsheet. Tell me what you want to see.

Franz - I cant unfortunately. I did not play one total this season because I cant play my normal size wager on them. They are not even on my radar screen because of that. The only suggestion I have to you are exchanges such as matchbook, mansion, and tradesports where THEORETICALLY you could bet as much as you got - as long as someone is willing to match it. In the real world - its not that simple - but you should look into it. ||an_cheers.gif' border=0>

Van you can email me at ernieballrulz@yahoo.com Lets say I have a bankroll of $200 and through the course of a season I make 20 bets @ $10 a piece. How are you figuring your net wins and losses while figuring into the mix the juice. Trying to see how much more profit in $$$ -104 could be compared to -110.

Vanzack, you've been at Covers for a long time and have posted some things worth reading and taking note of. However, this isn't one of them. Other than advocating reduced vig, everything you've proposed is just either just plain wrong, or poor advice. We get it, you're having a good nfl season. You've been popping into threads all over the place bragging about it, and it seems to be the theme of this thread.

austin - give me some time and i will email you a spreadsheet PJA - care to elaborate? What is plain wrong or poor advice? Im not bragging about my good nfl season - its actually probably considered bad around here. I dont "pop in to threads" and brag about anything. Please elaborate. I did. And I would like to hear your insight.

Dude I think he is just sharing advice as to how he approaches it. He also makes note of how many people who do this for fun post random threads like here is my pick, these guys suck...blah blah. Not kissing his ass, but this is a valid discussion and one you do not see too much around here.

We get it, you're having a good nfl season. You've been popping into threads all over the place bragging about it, and it seems to be the theme of this thread. This statement confuses me. This is about theory. Its not about me. I stated a theory and a way of thinking that is not personal. Maybe you didnt read the post. ||confused.gif' border=0>

Thanks

It's pretty late to elaborate on everything, but I'll throw out a few. You suggest betting 10% of your original bankroll. How many reserve bankrolls do you have? And if you have all these reserves, having them sit on the sidelines isn't the best use of them. What exchanges are offering -102 both ways? at -106/-102, betting -102 isn't paying 2% juice. I don't understand the theory of goals, ie. double your bankroll. Do you have any idea of the probability of going -10units before going +10 at .55? Nothing wrong with laying above -104. Pinnacle is currently offering cle +3 -121/+113. You think that you're paying more juice taking cleveland -121 than you are taking jax +113?

great post. my problem is i like "the gamble" too much. hopefully one day i can master the art of self-control. bol. ||Peace_5.gif' border=0>

OK PJA - NOW I SEE. YOU DONT UNDERSTAND. You have incorrectly made assumptions and havent read the whole thread. You say the post is bad advice but you dont even understand the premise to make a judgement. I will address your points and explain: You suggest betting 10% of your original bankroll. How many reserve bankrolls do you have? And if you have all these reserves, having them sit on the sidelines isn't the best use of them. I suggest betting 10% of your bankroll IF: 1. You have a goal of doubling your money (aggressive) 2. You have a timeframe of a season (aggressive) 3. Your expected juice is 2-3% 4. Your expected handicapping outcome is 55% YOUR WAGER SIZE IS DEPENDENT UPON THE CRITERIA YOU SET UP ABOVE. Please go back and read the whole post. It is explained. And if you still disagree please tell me where - so we can talk about it. What exchanges are offering -102 both ways? at -106/-102, betting -102 isn't paying 2% juice. I don't understand the theory of goals, ie. double your bankroll. Obviously. And to be honest - this is the most common mistake in any business or gambling venture. Are you doing this to be entertained or make money. Im talking to those that want to make money. You have to have a goal. It is critical to any success. Do you have any idea of the probability of going -10units before going +10 at .55? Yes I do. It has to do with running a standard deviation plot and Im not sure that the true mathematical answer is even relevant because there are so many factors involved like the true probability etc. But the mathematical probability of losing your bankroll and gaining your goal are directly linear to your winning percentage. Period. Nothing wrong with laying above -104. Pinnacle is currently offering cle +3 -121/+113. You think that you're paying more juice taking cleveland -121 than you are taking jax +113? No, once again you didnt read the post. It is talked about above. Juice is the amount extra you pay related to the probability of the bet expectation. This is a tricky area. Read above. PJA - before you tell me about bad advice and wrong statements - do me the courtesy of trying to read. If you dont understand ask. If you disagree we can talk about it. Im sure there are plenty of theories on the other side - but give me a chance to defend myself before you say it is wrong and give no reasoning. I am rational and will admit when I am wrong - but you have yet to propose a decent debate. GL ||an_cheers.gif' border=0>

What exchanges are offering -102 both ways? at -106/-102, betting -102 isn't paying 2% juice. Didnt catch this one. Once again - read above. Exchanges like mansion, matchbook and tradesports allow you to TAKE JUICE instead of give it. Betting -102 IS betting 2% juice in my book - can you explain why its not?

good info Vanzack, the lowest juice only makes sense, unfortunately I don't find it often enough, I need to make more of an effort

Van, Between matchbook, mansion, and tradesports, do you have a preference? Does one have more traffic? Does one have better traffic where bettors take your reduced juice (for you) bets more often? Or are they all pretty much equal and I should spread my money around to all 3? Thanks for the info, and don't worry about it when someone tells you your style is wrong or money management bad. You've been clear about the aggressive/relative risk of your style, and it doesn't sound at all wrong for your situation. It would be for mine, but my situation is somewhat different in that I do withdraw my housepayment semi regularly (for instance)...

Sorry. Was away doing my nightly pilates ab workout. ||reallyhappy.gif' border=0> I'll give it one more try before sleeptime.||sleep2.gif' border=0> I suggest betting 10% of your bankroll IF: 1. You have a goal of doubling your money (aggressive) 2. You have a timeframe of a season (aggressive) 3. Your expected juice is 2-3% 4. Your expected handicapping outcome is 55% How did you come to the conclusion that 10% is the best possible wagering size within these parameters? It just sounded like a good number?||surprised.gif' border=0> Obviously. And to be honest - this is the most common mistake in any business or gambling venture. Are you doing this to be entertained or make money. Im talking to those that want to make money. You have to have a goal. It is critical to any success The goal should be to maximize profit per dollar/penny/whatever that is invested. There isn't any reason to set a goal of doubling your bankroll in a given period of time. No, once again you didnt read the post. It is talked about above. Juice is the amount extra you pay related to the probability of the bet expectation. This is a tricky area. Read above. YOU, VANZACK, posted "This gets more complicated but my personal philosophy is to RARELY lay above -104 here - and if it means selling down off of what I perceive as non-key numbers I will." How did I misread this? First, I thought you might have meant never laying above -104 to mean never betting anything worse than an .08 line around +100, but the second part of your comment suggests that that isn't what you meant. Once again - read above. Exchanges like mansion, matchbook and tradesports allow you to TAKE JUICE instead of give it. Betting -102 IS betting 2% juice in my book - can you explain why its not? The 'true' line is -102/+102. Charging each side .04 produces -106/-102. Time for bed, and nightmares of me fighting Predator2.||an_speechless.gif' border=0> I really need to start watching more porn before bed, and less stupid horror movies.||an_smash.gif' border=0> GL||an_cheers.gif' border=0>

C-Gold..........I'm the least qualified to give advice so this is just an opinion. If you have met your goal and are currently over that goal wouldn't it be the wise move to remover from play the doubled portion and retain that which is over to finnish the season. this way you will only risk the 6 units above your goal. It's true your wager will have to be reduced and your winnings will certainly be smaller but at this point your not putting a met gowl in jepordy.

.......goal..........

........jeopardy......... Wow........an I even graduated once.

Oh.....and to everyone in this thread I would like to thank you. For the first time since I've been here I am enjoying on it's merrit. This is type of thread this forum should and used to have. I applaude everyone of you. ||an_clap.gif' border=0>

Nice thread and info Vanzack. I agree 100% with your way of managing money. It is the absolute KEY thing towards being a winner short and long term. I see too many people pissing their money away on teasers and parlays. It kills me to see someone punching holes in their wall because they lost an 8 team parlay on one game. People just can't seem to grasp the fact that if they dropped $100 on each of those games straight up, they would have a profit of $690 for the day. But hey, twice a year people hit a nice parlay and thats all they need to fuel them to losing the other 50 weeks of the year on them. I see too many people throwing away money on Monday night football because they are bored and they need action so they bet THE most overhyped game of the week. I see too many people throwing away their money on games because while they liked the Bears, they made that a no bet because it wasn't on TV, and drop money on a TV game even though they didn't feel too strongly about it. I see too many people hit 5 games for $100 a pop, but lose their "LOCK" FOR $1,000 because the idea of consistancy of bets is too much to grasp. I see too many people have a few nice winning weeks, go buy the new Xbox 360, buy their girlfriend a gold bracelet, take their family out to dinner, take themselves out drinking, then the next week lose all that money they spent and then cry about it. I see too many people get schlacked all week and then try to make it back on the Sunday night game(the 2nd most overhyped game of the week). I see too many reverse bettors(the only prop bet I will even consider) hit the first half of the reverse on the early game and REFUSE to hedge their bet on the later game. Example from this past weekend: $500 reverse the Bears +3 and Seattle -4.5 By 4:00 you know the Bears won. The MOST you can lose is $500 on the split since the Bears won that 1:00 game. So you drop that $500 on the other team in the 4:00 game(the Giants +4.5) Why the hell would you not put $500 straight on the Giants? That way you have a FREE $1,500 wager on the Seahawks. Stupidity is the only answer. People: whether you do this for fun, or whether you do this to make a better living for your kids, or whether you are a professional, the bottom line is winning money. It would not be called gambling if money was not getting thrown around. Use your brains(everyone has one). Would you hit on 20 in blackjack? Would you bet the Dolphins because their uniform is pretty? No. So don't lose your money on all the little things mentioned in this thread. It's the same shit. Stupidity. The number 1 reason 99% of people lose their money.

great thread for years ive noticed the majority of people changing bet sizes according to their confidence in a particular play (one unit or one star vs. two units or two stars etc.), yet i never change the amount wagered from game to game. i found that this has paid off many times this NFL season as some of my more confident plays have lost and many "borderline" games have paid. had i wagered to scale of confidence i would have been down. my plays are all for 1 unit and all vig at 5%. any thoughts?