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Team total points odd/even strategy

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Posts: 47

calinreddog

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Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 25, 2009 - 4:33 PM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:

All I'm saying is it's been proven over and over that betting on red or black, even or odd, a coin flip or a basketball total ending in even or odd is going to lose in the long run. If going 4-2 proves the binomial distribution is the answer to this age old question then its news to the whole world. I don't seroiusly think anyone in these forums would actually consider wagering money on betting on even or odd and expect in win in the long run. As long as you post I will feel free to respond and in no way keep my mouth shut as you put it. Have fun dude, I'm all in favor of that, bet and post your results as much as you want.

And 4-2 is nothing from a statistic point of view, but I'd like to give it a try and keep records of my trials on this topic.

When I'll be going 687 - 313 some people might consider wagering.

kenyonlv

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 345

Posted: Jan. 25, 2009 - 4:40 PM ET #27

Dude if you win there is word to describe it I'll spell it for you ... L U C K.

calinreddog

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Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 25, 2009 - 4:53 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:

Dude if you win there is word to describe it I'll spell it for you ... L U C K.

elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jan. 25, 2009 - 5:32 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:

Hate to say it but he's right on. BOL though

JoshLewis

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 477

Posted: Jan. 25, 2009 - 6:54 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:

Right on Wild Card ... here is a relavent clip ...

"Roulette balls and dice simply have no memory. Every spin in roulette and every toss in craps is independent of all past events. In the short run you can fool yourself into thinking a betting system works, by risking a lot to win a little. However, in the long run no betting system can withstand the test of time."

Unfortunately, you're wrong Kenyon. Are you aware of Law Of Averages?

If you flip a coin 1000 times, you will get something close to %50-%50. It means if you had %60-70 "even" in first 100 throw, then in other 100 throw there will be more "odd". Feel free to test it. It's a paradox of math which majority people knows wrong.

Numbers actually have a memory..

sambuca frank

Prospect

Joined: May, 2003

Posts: 172

Posted: Jan. 25, 2009 - 10:12 PM ET #31

THIS IS A EMBARRASSMENT TO THIS FORUM!

calinreddog

Veteran

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 12:09 AM ET #32

Boston team total ODD

Atlanta team total EVEN

Toronto team total ODD

Detroit team total EVEN

Chicago team total ODD

Golden State team total EVEN

BOS @ DAL game total ODD

UTA @ DEN game total EVEN

LAC @ GSW game total EVEN

So far 6 - 7 (46.15%)

bad

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 539

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 12:09 AM ET #33

caldog,
if you're you're going to get pissed off and feel the need to insult everyone who makes a post saying that you're wrong, why even make a post in the first place? just make your bets and collect your winnings.

calinreddog

Veteran

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 12:10 AM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by sambuca frank:

THIS IS A EMBARRASSMENT TO THIS FORUM!

Fuck off!

kenyonlv

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 345

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 2:01 AM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by JoshLewis:

Unfortunately, you're wrong Kenyon. Are you aware of Law Of Averages?

If you flip a coin 1000 times, you will get something close to %50-%50. It means if you had %60-70 "even" in first 100 throw, then in other 100 throw there will be more "odd". Feel free to test it. It's a paradox of math which majority people knows wrong.

Numbers actually have a memory..

Hey Josh ... Do you have a degree in Physics ... ? Well I do, and I have a very strong matematical background as well. Nothing I have posted on this thread is incorrect. I Googled "law of averages" and here is the top return.

"The law of averages is a lay term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event shall "even out" within a small sample. As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle."

Since it has no mathematical principle, reflects bad statistics, and is nothing but wishful thinking I don't want any part of it. If Voodoo and hocus pocus are your bag then go ahead and continue to tell me I am wrong and to provide some more bogus answers. Anyone reading this that also has an analytical mind will agree ... "Numbers have memory" is as good a laugh as the guy who posted about using numerology to make his picks.

Red ... I do appreciate your mathematical knowledge and your attempt to apply it to sports betting. It is such a relief to see someone actually doing something that actually requires some thought and knowledge. All I am saying is I think you can find a better to place to apply your skills other then an even/odd bet.

BTW the odds of going 2-7 as you did tonight are 36 out of 512 or 0.0703, roughly 1 in 14 ... not 1 in a million or some other number you may come up with.

calinreddog

Veteran

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 4:11 AM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:

BTW the odds of going 2-7 as you did tonight are 36 out of 512 or 0.0703, roughly 1 in 14 ... not 1 in a million or some other number you may come up with.

You're wright about the odds of going 2-7, but it also might be a situational record. 2-7 is as relevant as 2-0 or 4-2 so I will give it a try at least 100 times and if it doesn't reach 60-40 I'll throw it away.

Meanwhile be sure I'm digging out what to see what relevance does this theory have for betting wins / losses and overs / unders.

I would prefer too to have a system for betting on something that's not random and can be predicted. But for the beginning the easiest way to apply this theory seemed to be betting odd / even.

Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:

BTW the odds of going 2-7 as you did tonight are 36 out of 512 or 0.0703, roughly 1 in 14 ... not 1 in a million or some other number you may come up with.

Meanwhile be sure I'm digging out what to see what relevance does this theory have for betting wins / losses and overs / unders.

I would prefer too to have a system for betting on something that's not random and can be predicted. But for the beginning the easiest way to apply this theory seemed to be betting odd / even.

calinreddog

Veteran

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 4:33 AM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:

If you take every game, the odd/even is absolutely random, but events that are independent and that have no memory tend to distribute themselves randomly in a series of trials.

The chances are for 50% for each game that the team scores odd or even points but the odd or even totals have the tendency to distribute randomly along a series. That means that is very unlikely that in a series of 20 consecutive trials to come out 20 consecutive odd or even, based on a random probability of 50%. Why don't you look back at some data to see how manny times you'll find 15 consecutive ODD points scored in 10000 games played? I guarantee you that you won't find more than 107 series.

That is the binomial distribution of successes and failures in series and that's not being teached in elementary school.

IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT ODD OR EVEN SCORES ARE DEPENDENT ON PAST EVENTS. THEY ARE ABSOLUTELY INDEPENDENT AND THAT IS WHY THAY TEND TO DISTRIBUTE RANDOMLY IN SERIES OF TRIALS.

And the chances of losing all 6 bets are based on the calculated probability of losing based on the binomial distribution of successses of failures and not based on the math book on elementary school.

And I am having fun and making money in the process. I am not forcing you to take my picks. Don't like it don't buy it, but keep your mouth shut.

And about the padded cell, don't worry I've been there already.

I'm afraid your little brain is sitting to comfortable in its padded cell. Shake it up a little and try to learn new things.

K, sorry about the last remarks. That time I did want to offend you but now I'd like to appologise. I was angry because you atacked me as a person and not only my theory. I don't really think what I said about you.

kenyonlv

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 345

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 7:43 AM ET #38

Red, Yes, I completly understand your point about the even/odd being the best place to start with your theory .. you are absolutely correct, it is a good place to start. I also agree that 2-7 is not sig yet. Keep plugging away and we can all see how it turns out on the even/odd thing ... it is interesting, but to me I see no difference between that and using binomial distributions to beat roulette.

I didn't mean the comment about the padded cell to be taken literally, I was just joking. I said that directed towards you somewhat, but at the same time I feel that way about myself and all the time I have spent on my NBA O/U system. It definately can become an obsession, so you just have to be careful. So I too apologize if I offended you with that comment.

calinreddog

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Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 8:31 AM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:

calinreddog

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Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 9:52 AM ET #40

Picks for tonight:

ATL team total EVEN

HOU team total ODD

NY team total EVEN

OKC team total ODD

POR team total ODD

calinreddog

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Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 7:15 PM ET #41

And just for the fun I'll add some more picks for tonight:

MIA team total EVEN

MIN team total ODD

MIL team total EVEN

PHI team total EVEN

NO team total ODD

NJ team total EVEN

LAC team total EVEN

calinreddog

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Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:51 AM ET #42

ATL team total EVEN

HOU team total ODD

NY team total EVEN

OKC team total ODD

POR team total ODD

MIA team total EVEN

MIN team total ODD

MIL team total EVEN

PHI team total EVEN

NO team total ODD

NJ team total EVEN

LAC team total EVEN

5 - 7.

Total 7-14.

I consider this topic closed.

I have some other interesting systems to test and apply to much more predictable things.

ChanceP

Banned

Joined: Feb, 2004

Posts: 3736

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 7:25 AM ET #43

So you talked all kinds of shit to everyone who said it wouldnt work saying theyre fools and now it didnt work. WOW, youre awesome, we're all just SOOOOOOOO excited about what youre next system will be

calinreddog

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Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 7:52 AM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

I don't have the patience to wait to test it. It doesn't necessarily mean it's not working. Anyway I broke my rules and chased odd after 2 or 3 even, so the results are not significant. The point is I should've played odd only after 6 or 7 consecutive even but that requires a lot of patience and discipline to do it and it seems I don't have that discipline. When I'll have enough time to do it I will take all the NBA teams, game by game, 2 or 3 seasons and get the data required to have something significant. Or you are that curious you could do it by your self.

I found something much better, see the "Over / Under Poisson strategy" topic and "Home team ATS system" topic.

If think these two strategies will produce better results and much more quick so I'll pay them all my atention.

Sorry if I let you down.

calinreddog

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Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 8:57 AM ET #45

On a second thought I would do better if I would gather some data to test my theory, so I started working.

I am gathering data from all the games played this season untill now and that means (I think) over 1000 games and I'll run a quick analysis over the ODD / EVEN streaks.

I will get back with the results as soon as I'll finish the analysis ( this afternoon or tonight).

calinreddog

Veteran

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 2081

Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 12:17 PM ET #46

I gathered data from the 2008-2009 NBA season for all games that have been played untill now and I have some results, so you won't say I was talking all kinds of shit.

The size of the sample is 1321 games.

I found 152 streaks of odd/even team total points of at least 3 consecutive odd or even. The streaks of at least 3 odd / even represent 11.5% of the entire number of the games played (1321).

I assumed when I started this topic that we could win in the long run by chasing the odd / even team total points streaks.

I ran an analysis on the data from this season to see how would I've done if I have been chasing odd / even streaks.

I only looked for streaks of at least 3 consecutive odd / even and higher than 3. The results are:

Chase of 3 streak: 83 - 69 win loss (54.6%)

Chase of 4 streak: 37 - 32 win - loss (53.62%)

Chase of 5 streak: 13 - 19 win - loss (40.63%)

Chase of 6 streak: 9 - 10 win - loss (47.37%)

Chase of 7 streak: 6 - 4 win loss (60.00%)

Chase of 8 streak: 2 - 2 win - loss (50%)

Chase of 9 streak: 1 - 1 win - loss (50%)

Chase of 10 streak: 1 - 0 win loss (100%)

The longest streak of odd / even total points streak has 10 consecutives and was accomplished by Atlanta.

If you want to see for your self the streaks and the statistics for every team, data are available for viewing on my WindowsLive Space at https://cid-c9f94e792da7f590.skydrive.live.com/browse.aspx/NBA%20ODD%20%20EVEN

As a conclusion:

Chasing the streaks of odd / even would've produced results over 50% only when chasing streaks of 3. That means if I would've been betting on all teams that accomplished 3 consecutive odd / even points scored that their next game they'll do the opposite I would've won 54.6% of my bets (83 out of 152). If my bookie offers me odds of at least 1.85 or -115 for betting the odd / even team points ( and that only depends on the juice) I could've made a little profit of 1.85%.

But that only chasing the streaks of 3, not longer than 3.

My bookie offers me only 1.830 for odd / even team points bets (he's done his homework, too), so for me this chapter is closed.

Sorry if I offended anyone, I wasn't talking shit, you can view and download the data if you are interested to make further analysis.

Based on the data from this season you decide by your self if the system would have worked or not.

to everybody!

I gathered data from the 2008-2009 NBA season for all games that have been played untill now and I have some results, so you won't say I was talking all kinds of shit.

The size of the sample is 1321 games.

I found 152 streaks of odd/even team total points of at least 3 consecutive odd or even. The streaks of at least 3 odd / even represent 11.5% of the entire number of the games played (1321).

I assumed when I started this topic that we could win in the long run by chasing the odd / even team total points streaks.

I ran an analysis on the data from this season to see how would I've done if I have been chasing odd / even streaks.

I only looked for streaks of at least 3 consecutive odd / even and higher than 3. The results are:

Chase of 3 streak: 83 - 69 win loss (54.6%)

Chase of 4 streak: 37 - 32 win - loss (53.62%)

Chase of 5 streak: 13 - 19 win - loss (40.63%)

Chase of 6 streak: 9 - 10 win - loss (47.37%)

Chase of 7 streak: 6 - 4 win loss (60.00%)

Chase of 8 streak: 2 - 2 win - loss (50%)

Chase of 9 streak: 1 - 1 win - loss (50%)

Chase of 10 streak: 1 - 0 win loss (100%)

The longest streak of odd / even total points streak has 10 consecutives and was accomplished by Atlanta.

As a conclusion:

But that only chasing the streaks of 3, not longer than 3.

My bookie offers me only 1.830 for odd / even team points bets (he's done his homework, too), so for me this chapter is closed.

Sorry if I offended anyone, I wasn't talking shit, you can view and download the data if you are interested to make further analysis.

Based on the data from this season you decide by your self if the system would have worked or not.

to everybody!

Captfyre98

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 191

Posted: Jan. 5, 2018 - 3:58 PM ET #47

I just came across your post. Interesting read. My bookie only offers the game itself (both teams combined) to land Odd or Even. Would your same law of averages be in play? Meaning if a team's combined score has been Even 6 times in succession, the 7th would be at 3.5% etc...

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