My system is based on the fact that the odd or even team totals are random events, without memory, independent one from each other and at each trial their chance of occurence is 50%. And that is exactly why is unusual to come out is long series of consecutive odd or even. Being random events, independent one to each other they will distribute randomly. The same when fliping the coin. Each time you have 1/2 chances to get a head and that's why heads are randomly distributed in a series of 100 trials. You'll never get 50 consecutive heads followed by 50 consecutive tails, they will be distributed randomly, without any logic. That is the binomial distribution of successes and failures.
That is why the theory doesn't apply to wins - losses and over-under. It's not a smart thing to chase overs / unders or wins / losse based on this theory.
First of all, winning and losing are not random events. They depend on manny factors such as team form, opponent faced, ...
Wins and losses do have a memory: a team in good shape can reach very long winning streaks while a team that's playing very bad can reach long losing streaks. The same thing about overs / unders: a weak offensive meating consecutively other weak offenses can generate long under streaks. For overs / unders there are a lot of factors involved so they they're not at all random events. Just take a look at some on going streaks I've seen today: longest winning streak in basketball (Montepaschi Siena, 15 wins), longest losing streak in basketball (Bremerhaven, 16 losses), longest under 5.5 hockey streak (Yaroslavl, Russia, 10 unders), longest hockey losing streak (Furuset, 13 losses), longest soccer under 2.5 streak (Amiens, France, 12 unders), longest soccer over 2.5 streak (Llanelli, Wales, 14 overs) and longest home clean sheet streak (that means no goal against and belongs to Manchester Utd. UK, 10 games with 0 goals against).
And these aren't the longest of all times are just some streaks active today. But they are not streaks of random events. There are events that depend on manny factors.
The system of odd / even points scored can be backtested very easy but I don't intend to backtest it because its based on scientific facts that don't need to be tested on NBA team total points odd or even. I will test it on going and post the results in this topic and make some money in the process. Nobody has to follow my picks if he or she thinks it's a stupid idea.
The point is by now the system works 4-2 (67%) and I guarantee it will keep working all season and next season and so on.
Its accuracy can be easily estimated so I know what risks I'm taking when I bet my picks and it goes like this:
- 68.75% if I chase odd after 3 consecutive evens;
- 81.25% if I chase odd after 4 consecutive evens;
- 89.06% if I chase odd after 5 consecutive evens;
- 93.75% if I chase odd after 6 consecutive evens;
- 96.48% if Ichase odd after 7 consecutive evens.
The list can continue because we will never reach 100%.
Ignore the haters and keep posting.
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