Strategic_Bets NHL System

just fixed it
and yea it seems ok so far, it has its strong points i guess, the more shots a team takes, the more chances they have to score, so two teams with 2 evenly matched goalies, IMO the team to take the more shots, ie chances to score, will most likely come out on top.  Thats the premise of this experiment i guess...might add certain filters, such as goalies who havent played 2 seasons yet in the NHL. Example:  Brobovski is starting for Philly today ( leftwinglock.com ) but hes only played this year, so it is harder for me gauge what his stats should be around in terms of his GAA and SV%

 This REALLY pissed me off

Total = -3.36U

It is time to reduce the number of games played.

Wednesday October 27th, 2010

Atlanta Thrashers VS New York Rangers
Expected Score: 3.480 - 3.099
Pick:
Atlanta Thrashers ML +118: Risking 1U to win 1.18U
Atlanta / NYR OVER 1.5 First Per -130: Risking 1.3U to win 1U
Atlanta / NYR OVER 5.5 -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U

Washington Capitals VS Carolina Hurricanes
Expected Score: 2.904 - 2.732
Pick:
Washington / Carolina OVER 1.5 First Per -145: Risking 1.45U to win 1U
Washington / Carolina DRAW +320: Risking 1U to win 3.2U

New York Islanders VS Montreal Canadiens
Expected Score: 3.210 - 2.666
Pick:
Islanders ML +135: Risking 1U to win 1.35
Islanders / Canadiens OVER 1.5 First Per +105: Risking 1U to win 1.05U

Pittsburgh Penguins VS Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected Score: 3.195 - 2.780
Penguins ML -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U
Penguins / Lightning OVER 1.5 First Per -145: Risking 1.45U to win 1U

Los Angeles Kings VS Chicago Blackhawks
Expected Score: Not really enough goaltender data, however, the resultant was: 2.841 - 2.618
Pick:
Staying away

New Jersey Devils VS San Jose Sharks
Expected Score: 2.542 - 2.656
Pick:
Devils / Sharks OVER 1.5 First Per +105: Risking 1U to win 1.05U
Devils / Sharks DRAW +300: Risking 1U to win 3U

Looking like the ML isn't a good bet, but the O/U and 1st period stuff is rather solid

Still plenty of testing to go though. I'm likin it

i know thats whats annoying me

id rather the ML win so i can get more dogs

going to take a look into breaking down the game period by period, going to try analyzing how many shots a team averages per period, and try to increase my odds of winning on those first period bets

Wednesday October 27th, 2010

Atlanta Thrashers VS New York Rangers
Expected Score: 3.480 - 3.099
Pick:
Atlanta Thrashers ML +118: Risking 1U to win 1.18U
Atlanta / NYR OVER 1.5 First Per -130: Risking 1.3U to win 1U
Atlanta / NYR OVER 5.5 -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U

Washington Capitals VS Carolina Hurricanes
Expected Score: 2.904 - 2.732
Pick:
Washington / Carolina OVER 1.5 First Per -145: Risking 1.45U to win 1U
Washington / Carolina DRAW +320: Risking 1U to win 3.2U

New York Islanders VS Montreal Canadiens
Expected Score: 3.210 - 2.666
Pick:
Islanders ML +135: Risking 1U to win 1.35
Islanders / Canadiens OVER 1.5 First Per +105: Risking 1U to win 1.05U

Pittsburgh Penguins VS Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected Score: 3.195 - 2.780
Penguins ML -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U
Penguins / Lightning OVER 1.5 First Per -145: Risking 1.45U to win 1U

Los Angeles Kings VS Chicago Blackhawks
Expected Score: Not really enough goaltender data, however, the resultant was: 2.841 - 2.618
Pick:
Staying away

New Jersey Devils VS San Jose Sharks
Expected Score: 2.542 - 2.656
Pick:
Devils / Sharks OVER 1.5 First Per +105: Risking 1U to win 1.05U
Devils / Sharks DRAW +300: Risking 1U to win 3U

ML: 1-2 = -0.92U
First O/U: 4-1 = +2.65U
O/U: 1-0 = +1U
Draw: 0-2 = -2U

Updated Overall:
ML: 5-10 = -6.23U
PL: 1-1 = +0.45U
O/U: 5-1-1 = +4.05U
Draw: 2-5 = +1.3U
Regulation: 1-4 = -3.2U
First O/U: 7-3 = +2.7U
First Per PL: 2-0 = +3.05U

Updated Overall Units: +2.12U

But that's why we're tracking them without betting first, right?

Or have you been betting anyway!!  Cheater.

Stay calm.  We'll have a couple months of results before any money gets placed, assuming you haven't bet anything yet

no im not betting on these, yet

all my bets are shown on a thread in the NHL forum, heres the thread: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=23&sub=100854386 

and are posted before i even do this system to avoid any sudden urges to switch sides lol

i'll be running todays games shortly....
might play more O/U today instead of ML and Reg, which seem to be killing me...

Thursday October 28th, 2010

Toronto Maple Leafs VS Boston Bruins
Expected Score: 2.337 - 2.727
Pick:
Toronto / Boston UNDER 5.5 -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U

Edmonton Oilers VS Columbus Blue Jackets
Expected Score: 2.702 - 3.324
Pick:
Edmonton / Columbus OVER 5.5 -120: Risking 1.2U to win 1U
Edmonton / Columbus OVER 1.5 First Per -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U
Columbus -0.5 Reg -101: Risking 1.01U to win 1U

Florida Panthers VS Ottawa Senators
Expected Score: 2.894 - 2.214
Pick:
Florida / Ottawa UNDER 5.5 -135: Risking 1.35U to win 1U

Phoenix Coyotes VS Detroit Red Wings
Expected Score: 2.450 - 2.953
Phoenix / Detroit OVER 1.5 First Per -105: Risking 1.05U to win 1U
Detroit -0.5 First Per +130: Risking 1U to win 1.3U
Phoenix / Detroit OVER 5.5 +105: Risking 1U to win 1.05

St. Louis Blues VS Nashville Predators
Expected Score: 2.725 - 2.153
St. Louis / Nashville OVER 5 -130: Risking 1.3U to win 1U
St. Louis / Nashville OVER 1.5 First Per +105: Risking 1U to win 1.05U

Washington Capitals VS Minnesota Wild
Expected Score: 2.866 - 2.714
Washington / Minnesota DRAW +300: Risking 1U to win 3U
Washington / Minnesota OVER 6 -105: Risking 1.05U to win 1U
Washington -0.5 First Per +160: Risking 1U to win 1.6U

Los Angeles Kings VS Dallas Stars
Expected Score: 2.820 - 2.666
Los Angeles / Dallas DRAW +280: Risking 1U to win 2.8U
Los Angeles / Dallas OVER 5.5 +100: Risking 1U to win 1U

Colorado Avalanche VS Calgary Flames
Expected Score: 2.655 - 2.991
Colorado / Calgary OVER 1.5 First Per -120: Risking 1.2U to win 1U
Colorado / Calgary OVER 5.5 -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U

The real question is do you have your facts straight.......

NO !!!!!

There is a book by Robert Ross and hockey can very much be handicapped.  But there's no magical system.  You have to actually cap the games.  There are no shortcut and no magic formulas. 

That's the problem with most cappers these days. They think all they have do is plug in stats and get a winner as you see in almost all of the threads in this forum. You have to actually know the players.  Which ones play better against certain teams than others. What they usually do on B2B's. How does a team fare on the last game of a long road trip and what they do on that first game home. Also PK and PP %'s. They are huge and should be one of the top things you look at.

But the one thing you are correct about.  predicting the number of shots is a bit of a crapshoot.  But as a rule you should figure a SA % of .900 for goaltenders and work your way there.