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Strategic_Bets NHL System

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Posted: #1

Hi everyone, I have decided to try putting together a system, based on shots and goalie percentages

Due to the fact that I have not yet put in to place any filters, I will NOT be wagering on any of these picks unless they prove to be accurate over the next month and a bit.  IF the system is successful, I will start placing wagers on it the first week of December

For current documenting practices, i will be using a flat rate of 1 unit (to win) per bet.

Cheers and heres to hoping for a successful and profitable season!

Friday October 22nd, 2010
System Plays:

Calgary VS Columbus
Expected Score: N/A, New Calgary Goalie

Minnesota VS Vancouver
Expected Score: 0.741 - 2.732
Pick: Vancouver ML -205: Risking 2.05U to win 1U
Pick: Vancouver PL +145: Risking 1U to win 1.45U
Pick: Vancouver -0.5 REG -130: Risking 1.3U to win 1U
Pick: Vancouver / Minnesota UNDER 5.5 -105: Risking 1.05U to win 1U

Tampa Bay VS Atlanta
Expected Score: 3.105 - 3.648
Pick: Atlanta ML -126: Risking 1.26U to win 1U
Pick: Atlanta / Tampa Bay OVER 6 +105:Risking 1U to win 1.05U
Pick: Atlanta / Tampa Bay DRAW +290: Risking 1U to win 2.9U
Pick: Atlanta / Tampa Bay Over 1.5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U

Chicago VS St. Louis
Expected Score: 2.518 - 2.561
Pick: St. Louis ML -118: Risking 1.18U to win 1U
Pick: Chicago / St. Louis DRAW +280: Risking 1U to win 2.8U

Ottawa VS Buffalo
Expected Score: 2.316 - 4.470
Pick: Buffalo ML -140: Risking 1.4U to win 1U
Pick: Buffalo PL +210: Risking 1U to win 2.1U
Pick: Buffalo -0.5 REG +110: Risking 1U to win 1.1U
Pick: Buffalo / Ottawa OVER 5.5 +105: Risking 1U to win 1.05U
Pick: Buffalo / Ottawa Over 1.5 -110: Risking 1.10U to win 1U

System Record:
ML: 0-0-0
PL: 0-0
REG: 0-0-0
Draw: 0-0
O/U: 0-0-0
First Per O/U: 0-0

 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2009
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Posted: #2
How can NHL have a draw? That mean it goes into over time?

Also what is REG?

Good luck with the picks!
 
Rookie
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Posts: 595
Posted: #3

Quote Originally Posted by SKiLLsSoLoN:

How can NHL have a draw? That mean it goes into over time?

Also what is REG?

Good luck with the picks!

Yes, Draw means 60 minutes ends in a tie

Regulation means Regulation Time Only, 60 minutes = 3 periods
If game goes to OT you lose

 Thanks and Best of Luck

 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by Strategic_Bets:

Regulation means Regulation Time Only, 60 minutes = 3 periods
If game goes to OT you lose

Unless you picked the Dog at +0.5, then you Win when the 3rd period ends in a tie. 

 

 
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Posted: #5

Risky system.  If you the team you've chosen loses by more than 1 goal, you're losing a boatload of money/units.  Unless your system can pick at a 70% (ish) rate, I don't see it making substantial profits.  Sort of a "all your eggs in 1 basket" approach, based on past shot percentages

I hope I'm wrong, and I'll follow it closely..

 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

Unless you picked the Dog at +0.5, then you Win when the 3rd period ends in a tie. 

 

yes sorry forgot to mention that because my picks used the -0.5

thanks for the correction  

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

Risky system.  If you the team you've chosen loses by more than 1 goal, you're losing a boatload of money/units.  Unless your system can pick at a 70% (ish) rate, I don't see it making substantial profits.  Sort of a "all your eggs in 1 basket" approach, based on past shot percentages

I hope I'm wrong, and I'll follow it closely..



I agree completely with you, which is why i am NOT wagering any real money on the system yet
It is also why i am breaking it down in to so many different divisions: ML, PL, O/U etc, instead of just a regular W/L record, i want to see how this system does on individual betting so that when the time comes for me to tweak it and add parameters, i will be able to detect what i need to change and what hits on the system more often that not
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

Risky system.  If you the team you've chosen loses by more than 1 goal, you're losing a boatload of money/units.  Unless your system can pick at a 70% (ish) rate, I don't see it making substantial profits.  Sort of a "all your eggs in 1 basket" approach, based on past shot percentages

I hope I'm wrong, and I'll follow it closely..



P.S Thanks for the concern, 15 bets it incredibly stupid in my opinion, but it will help me see which bets were wiser and more accurate
 
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Posted: #9

Yeah I really didn't mean to sound like a jackass, if I came across that way.  I just re-read what I posted and it sounded obnoxious, sorry for that

I'm with you though, the multiple different wager types will give you a very good idea of which bets are winning, and which are losing, and you can base your future wagers from December forward on that data (or crush the system completely if it sucks)

I'll follow with you

 
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Posted: #10
Rough night by first glance
 
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Posted: #11
Friday October 22nd, 2010
System Plays:

Calgary VS Columbus
Expected Score: N/A, New Calgary Goalie

Minnesota VS Vancouver
Expected Score: 0.741 - 2.732
Pick: Vancouver ML -205: Risking 2.05U to win 1U
Pick: Vancouver PL +145: Risking 1U to win 1.45U
Pick: Vancouver -0.5 REG -130: Risking 1.3U to win 1U
Pick: Vancouver / Minnesota UNDER 5.5 -105: Risking 1.05U to win 1U

Tampa Bay VS Atlanta
Expected Score: 3.105 - 3.648
Pick: Atlanta ML -126: Risking 1.26U to win 1U
Pick: Atlanta / Tampa Bay OVER 6 +105:Risking 1U to win 1.05U
Pick: Atlanta / Tampa Bay DRAW +290: Risking 1U to win 2.9U
Pick: Atlanta / Tampa Bay Over 1.5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U

Chicago VS St. Louis
Expected Score: 2.518 - 2.561
Pick: St. Louis ML -118: Risking 1.18U to win 1U
Pick: Chicago / St. Louis DRAW +280: Risking 1U to win 2.8U

Ottawa VS Buffalo
Expected Score: 2.316 - 4.470
Pick: Buffalo ML -140: Risking 1.4U to win 1U
Pick: Buffalo PL +210: Risking 1U to win 2.1U
Pick: Buffalo -0.5 REG +110: Risking 1U to win 1.1U
Pick: Buffalo / Ottawa OVER 5.5 +105: Risking 1U to win 1.05U
Pick: Buffalo / Ottawa Over 1.5 -110: Risking 1.10U to win 1U

System Record:
ML: 2-2-0 = -0.66U
PL: 1-1 = 0.45U
REG: 1-1-0 = 0U
Draw: 0-2 = -2U
O/U: 2-1-0  = +1.05U
First Per O/U: 2-0 = +2U

Total = +0.84U

Atleast it came out positive!


I wont be able to post any plays today as i dont have time to run the numbers but tomorrows games will be done.

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Strategic_Bets:

Friday October 22nd, 2010
System Plays:

Pick: Atlanta / Tampa Bay Over 1.5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U

Just curious as to what this bet actually was?

 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

Just curious as to what this bet actually was?

Hi sorry couldnt make it to a computer at all over the weekend

It was for the Atlanta / Tampa Bay OVER 1.5 FIRST PERIOD

Anytime i write over / under 1.5 it means the First Period

Sorry for the confusion

 
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Posted: #14
Monday October 25th, 2010

System Record:
ML: 2-2-0 = -0.66U
PL: 1-1 = 0.45U
REG: 1-1-0 = 0U
Draw: 0-2 = -2U
O/U: 2-1-0  = +1.05U
First Per O/U: 2-0 = +2U

Total = +0.84U

Todays Plays:

Philadelhia Flyers VS Columbus Blue Jackets
Expected Score: 3.025 - 2.693
Pick:
Flyers ML -113: Risking 1.13U to win 1U
Flyers / Columbus OVER 1.5 First Period ** ODDS still to be determined


Phoenix Coyotes VS Montreal Canadiens
Expected Score: 2.369 - 2.597
Pick:
Montreal ML -121: Risking 1.21U to win 1U
Montreal Over 5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U
Phoenix / Montreal DRAW ** ODDS still to be determined

Los Angeles Kings VS Minnesota Wild
Expected Score: 2.965 - 2.728
Pick:
LA ML  -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U
LA / Wild UNDER 5.5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U

       

 
Rookie
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Posted: #15

UPDATE!!!

Monday October 25th, 2010

System Record:
ML: 2-2-0 = -0.66U
PL: 1-1 = 0.45U
REG: 1-1-0 = 0U
Draw: 0-2 = -2U
O/U: 2-1-0  = +1.05U
First Per O/U: 2-0 = +2U

Total = +0.84U

Todays Plays:

Philadelhia Flyers VS Columbus Blue Jackets
Expected Score: 3.025 - 2.693
Pick:
Flyers ML -113: Risking 1.13U to win 1U
Flyers / Columbus OVER 1.5 First Period -115: Risking 1.15U to win 1U


Phoenix Coyotes VS Montreal Canadiens
Expected Score: 2.369 - 2.597
Pick:
Montreal ML -121: Risking 1.21U to win 1U
Montreal Over 5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U
Phoenix / Montreal DRAW +300: Risking 1U to win 3U

Los Angeles Kings VS Minnesota Wild
Expected Score: 2.965 - 2.728
Pick:
LA ML  -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U
LA / Wild UNDER 5.5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U

       

 
Rookie
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Posted: #16

Todays Plays:

Philadelhia Flyers VS Columbus Blue Jackets
Expected Score: 3.025 - 2.693
Pick:
Flyers ML -113: Risking 1.13U to win 1U
Flyers / Columbus OVER 1.5 First Period -115: Risking 1.15U to win 1U


Phoenix Coyotes VS Montreal Canadiens
Expected Score: 2.369 - 2.597
Pick:
Montreal ML -121: Risking 1.21U to win 1U
Montreal Over 5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U PUSH
Phoenix / Montreal DRAW +300: Risking 1U to win 3U

Los Angeles Kings VS Minnesota Wild
Expected Score: 2.965 - 2.728
Pick:
LA ML  -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U
LA / Wild UNDER 5.5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U

Nice 4-1-1 day

Monday October 25th, 2010

System Record:
ML: 4-2-0 = 1.34U
PL: 1-1 = 0.45U
REG: 1-1-0 = 0U
Draw: 1-2 = 1U
O/U: 2-1-1  = +1.05U
First Per O/U: 2-1 = +0.85U

Total = +4.69U

 
Veteran
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Posted: #17
not bad..
 
Veteran
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Posted: #18

Looking good

The further we get into the season, the more data you'll have to use as well

Just wish you were available everyday to post.  Missing a day here and there sorta hampers the results, dont you think?

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Strategic_Bets:

Todays Plays:

Philadelhia Flyers VS Columbus Blue Jackets
Expected Score: 3.025 - 2.693
Pick:
Flyers ML -113: Risking 1.13U to win 1U
Flyers / Columbus OVER 1.5 First Period -115: Risking 1.15U to win 1U


Phoenix Coyotes VS Montreal Canadiens
Expected Score: 2.369 - 2.597
Pick:
Montreal ML -121: Risking 1.21U to win 1U
Montreal Over 5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U PUSH
Phoenix / Montreal DRAW +300: Risking 1U to win 3U

Los Angeles Kings VS Minnesota Wild
Expected Score: 2.965 - 2.728
Pick:
LA ML  -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U
LA / Wild UNDER 5.5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U

Nice 4-1-1 day

Monday October 25th, 2010

System Record:
ML: 4-2-0 = 1.34U
PL: 1-1 = 0.45U
REG: 1-1-0 = 0U
Draw: 1-2 = 1U
O/U: 2-1-1  = +1.05U
First Per O/U: 2-1 = +0.85U

Total = +4.69U

Wasn't the Flyers ML a loss here?  Should be 4-2-1

 
Rookie
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

Wasn't the Flyers ML a loss here?  Should be 4-2-1

Yes indeed!
Missed my flaming money bag, will correct right away!

 
Rookie
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by smdio:

Looking good

The further we get into the season, the more data you'll have to use as well

Just wish you were available everyday to post.  Missing a day here and there sorta hampers the results, dont you think?

yes i just emailed the excel sheet to myself now, i had developed it at work, so i couldnt do it over the weekend, didnt really have time to either..

 
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Posted: #22

CHANGE****

Philadelhia Flyers VS Columbus Blue Jackets
Expected Score: 3.025 - 2.693
Pick:
Flyers ML -113: Risking 1.13U to win 1U
Flyers / Columbus OVER 1.5 First Period -115: Risking 1.15U to win 1U


Phoenix Coyotes VS Montreal Canadiens
Expected Score: 2.369 - 2.597
Pick:
Montreal ML -121: Risking 1.21U to win 1U
Montreal Over 5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U PUSH
Phoenix / Montreal DRAW +300: Risking 1U to win 3U

Los Angeles Kings VS Minnesota Wild
Expected Score: 2.965 - 2.728
Pick:
LA ML  -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U
LA / Wild UNDER 5.5 -125: Risking 1.25U to win 1U

Nice 4-2-1 day

Monday October 25th, 2010

System Record:
ML: 4-3-0 = 0.21U
PL: 1-1 = 0.45U
REG: 1-1-0 = 0U
Draw: 1-2 = 1U
O/U: 2-1-1  = +1.05U
First Per O/U: 2-1 = +0.85U

Total = +3.56U

 

THANKS SMDIO
No more updating records at 1:20am while high as hell for me...
My apologies

 
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Posted: #23
Tuesday October 26th, 2010

Florida VS Toronto
Expected Score: 2.767 - 2.176
Pick:
Florida ML +128: Risking 1U to win 1.28U
Florida Regulation (O/T = PUSH) +135: Risking 1U to win 1.35U

Buffalo VS Philadelphia
Expected Score: 2.917 - 2.285
Pick:
Buffalo ML -103: Risking 1.03U to win 1
Buffalo / Philadelphia O 1.5, First Period: ** Line N/A

Phoenix VS Ottawa
Expected Score: 2.876 - 2.361
Pick:
Phoenix ML +123: Risking 1U to win 1.23U
Phoenix / Ottawa to DRAW: ** Line N/A
Phoenix / Ottawa U 1.5, First Period: ** Line N/A

Edmonton VS Calgary
Expected Score: 2.948 - 2.161
Pick:
Calgary Regulation -0.5 -110 (O/T = loss): Risking 1.1U to win 1U
Calgary First Period -0.5: ** Line N/A

Anahiem VS Dallas
Expected Score: 2.900 - 2.641 (closer than it should be)
Pick:
Dallas -0.5 Reg +103: Risking 1U to win 1.03U
Dallas ML -149: Risking 1.49U to win 1U
Dallas -0.5 First Period: ** Line N/A

Colorado VS Vancouver
Expected Score: 2.892 - 2.632
Pick:
Colorado / Vancouver DRAW: ** Line N/A
Colorado ML +163: Risking 1U to win 1.63U
Colorado / Vancouver OVER 5.5 -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U


 
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Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by Strategic_Bets:

Tuesday October 26th, 2010


Edmonton VS Calgary
Expected Score: 2.948 - 2.161
Pick:
Calgary Regulation -0.5 -110 (O/T = loss): Risking 1.1U to win 1U
Calgary First Period -0.5: ** Line N/A

It appears that Edmonton should outscore Calgary by almost a full goal.  Why are we siding with Calgary instead of the Oilers?

Just making sure I'm following everything correctly.  I really like these mechanical systems and this one intrigues me as well

 
 
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Posts: 595
Posted: #25
Tuesday October 26th, 2010

Florida VS Toronto
Expected Score: 2.767 - 2.176
Pick:
Florida ML +128: Risking 1U to win 1.28U
Florida Regulation (O/T = PUSH) +135: Risking 1U to win 1.35U

Buffalo VS Philadelphia
Expected Score: 2.917 - 2.285
Pick:
Buffalo ML -103: Risking 1.03U to win 1
Buffalo / Philadelphia O 1.5, First Period: ** Line N/A

Phoenix VS Ottawa
Expected Score: 2.876 - 2.361
Pick:
Phoenix ML +123: Risking 1U to win 1.23U
Phoenix / Ottawa to DRAW: ** Line N/A
Phoenix / Ottawa U 1.5, First Period: ** Line N/A

Edmonton VS Calgary
Expected Score: 2.161 - 2.948  ---------- Switched the numbers around
Pick:
Calgary Regulation -0.5 -110 (O/T = loss): Risking 1.1U to win 1U
Calgary First Period -0.5: ** Line N/A

Anahiem VS Dallas
Expected Score: 2.900 - 2.641 (closer than it should be)
Pick:
Dallas -0.5 Reg +103: Risking 1U to win 1.03U
Dallas ML -149: Risking 1.49U to win 1U
Dallas -0.5 First Period: ** Line N/A

Colorado VS Vancouver
Expected Score: 2.892 - 2.632
Pick:
Colorado / Vancouver DRAW: ** Line N/A
Colorado ML +163: Risking 1U to win 1.63U
Colorado / Vancouver OVER 5.5 -110: Risking 1.1U to win 1U


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