Statistical Frequency Analysis

Sampled the Last 6 starts of both pitchers for tomorrows SD @ PIT Game.. should have at least done ten for a better sample, but i just want to give this a shot.. and im only posting this up for your suggestions on how to improve (if its worth anything)

I hope i can post this in here correctly

[IMG]https://i38.tinypic.com/15nu3av.jpg[/IMG]

Alright, I guess you guys will have to look at the link to see what the hell I made. Probably worthless but we will see how it plays out tomorrow.
https://i38.tinypic.com/15nu3av.jpg


6 - 10 RUNS 9
so the play would def be UNDER 1ST HALF 68.89%

and 41.5% under for total game set at 7 so with a 41.5 % at hitting six I would call that a no play (below 50%)

whoever wants to risk a unit feel free to do so. i will use the THURSDAY game as a test run.. possibly a .5 unit play since i just spent a good 20 minutes making a chart i cant post on covers..

2.89% = 5.25 RUNS 1ST H        
68.89% = 0-3 RUNS 1ST H       

A 68.89% CHANCE BOTH PITCHERS COMBINE FOR 3 RUNS MAX RUNS IN FIRST 5 INNINGS

DERIVED 28.22 %  CHANCE BOTH PITCHERS COMEBINE FOR 3-5.25 RUNS IN FIRST 5 INNINGS

2.89 % CHANCE BOTH PITCHERS COMBINE FOR MORE THAN 5.25 RUNS IN FIRST 5 INNINGS

8.5% = 6 - 10 RUNS 9        
41.5% = 0-6 RUNS 9       

41.5 % BOTH PITCHERS COMBINE FOR 1-6 RUNS IN 9 INNINGS

8.5 % BOTH PITCHERS COMBINE FOR MORE THAN 6

OK.. 50% LEFT.. SHOULD WE JUST DOUBLE THE STATS TO MAKE IT = 100% ? WHY NOT?

IF SO 83 % FOR 1-6 AND 17% FOR 6+ RUNS IN 9 INNINGS


PADRES @ PIRATES
so the play would def be UNDER 1ST HALF 68.89%

and 41.5% under for total game set at 7 so with a 41.5 % at hitting six I would call that a no play (below 50%)

WITH THE FILTER IF U CALL IT THAT UNDER 7 IS THE PLAY FOR THE GAME AS WELL..

both bets hit.. system is 2-0 on a trial run will do one for tomorrow

SPREADSHEET WITH LAST 10 GAMES BY BOTH PITCHERS IN 5 & 9 INNINGS...

DETROIT VS WHITE SOX
https://i34.tinypic.com/2u8jbc9.jpg
DIDNT SPEND AS MUCH TIME ON THIS ONE TONIGHT

63 % 1H 0-3.9 ALLOWED RUNS
3 %   1H   4-7 ALLOWED RUNS

UNDER FIRST HALF

90% = LESS THAN 9 RUNS ALLOWED BY BOTH PITCHERS

UNDER FOR FULL GAME ALSO

FYI : PLENTY ROOM FOR ERROR.. SYSTEM DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR RUN SUPPORT.. X _ x

TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RUN SUPPORT I WOULD SAY A POSSIBLE OVER FOR THE TOTAL GAME

BOTH PITCHERS GOT GOOD RUN SUPPORT 08/03

POSSIBLE SYSTEM VARIATION:

FIRST FIVE INNINGS
BOND       70 % 0-3.9 RUNS AVERAGE 3 RUNS
BUEHRLE  90% 0-3.9 RUNS AVERAGE 1.8 RUNS

HIGH % POINTS TO EACH OF THEM GIVING UP ABOUT 3 @ 63% COMBINED PERCENTILE ?

I KNOW THIS CONTRADICTS THE POST ABOVE, BUT REMEMBER THIS IS A TEST RUN

Neither pitcher gave up 9 runs alone, but the total went under 1st half and over for game.. although the rain delay may have interfered.

New filter: A > 65% probability of each pitcher to give up 75% total  runs (of the over) each results in an over.

POSSIBLE SYSTEM VARIATION:

FIRST FIVE INNINGS
BOND       70 % 0-3.9 RUNS AVERAGE 3 RUNS
BUEHRLE  90% 0-3.9 RUNS AVERAGE 1.8 RUNS

Average runs in 5 = 4.8
Actual runs in 5    = 4

TODAYS MATCHUP IS SD V SF

https://i36.tinypic.com/9jkpqt.jpg

LATOS IN 5
2-2-0-0-0-0-2-2-2-0
2-4-3-0-0-0-0-0-4-1
BUM IN 5

LATOS GAME
2-2-1-2-0-1-2-2-2-1
3-6-5-4-2-2-2-1-7-2
BUM GAME


COMBINED STATS           

60% UNDER 2 IN 1H           
40 % 2-3-4 RUNS IN 1H       
4 % UNDER 2 IN 9       

42% TOTAL SCORE 4 -6       
12.6 % EXACT TOTAL TO BE 4           
29.4 EXACT TOTAL TO BE 5 OR 6           
12 % 6 RUNS OR MORE TOTAL

THE PLAY IS UNDER 3.5 FIRST HALF

LATOS IN 5 AVERAGES 1 ALLOWED RUN
BUM G IN 5 AVERAGES 1.4 ALLOWED RUNS

LATOS IN GAME AVG 1.5 RUNS
BUM G IN GAME AVG 3.4 RUNS

LEANING ON UNDER FOR THE GAME ALSO
..UNLESS BATS WARM UP FOR BOTH TEAMS

Keep posting Grov. I like it.

Grov i just posted a detailed outlook on Det /Nyy game and it would not post after 10 min of translating details 

Scherzer 5 past

had to copy and come to your thread to get to post,,,

Price 5 past

AHHH I LIKE TO STAY AWAY FROM NEW YORK AS THEY CAN BLOW UP AT ANY MOMENT - LEE IS ALWAYS A GOOD PLAY IN UNDER 5 AS WELL AS NO RUNS SCORED IN 1ST INNING THE UNDER IS AT 3.5 AND I STAYED AWAY BC BOTH PITCHERS COMBINE FOR 3+ IN 3 OF LAST 4 GAMES

 WENT WITH YANKS ON THE RL TONIGHT HOPING THEY COME BACK FROM THE SHUTOUT YESTERDAY BUT THAT WAS NOT A SYSTEM PLAY AS OUTLINED BELOW - NYM V HOU

NIESE V RODRIGUEZ
https://i36.tinypic.com/ll8hh.jpg

1ST 5 INNINGS COMBINED PROBABILITY            
1H = X < 2 RUNS EACH 28%    2 + = 18%            
1H 2-4 RUNS EACH 5%            
1H 4 OR MORE EACH 2%            
1H 8 RUNS EACH 1%            

PLAY IS UNDER 3.5 @ APROX 60% CONFIDENCE LEVEL (28 X 2)

FULL GAME COMBINED PROBABILITY            
OVER 7.5 = 2%        0-4 20 %    
COMBINED GAMES TOTAL WOULD GO 50% OVER 7.5            
4 OF LAST 5 WOULD GO OVER TOTAL 7.5   

CANT DECIDE ON THIS BUT CONSIDERING

NIESE IS 50% OVER 4 RUNS ALLOWED
ROD IS 60 % OVER 4 RUNS ALLOWED

THATS 30% THEY BOTH GIVE UP FOUR OR MORE
+ 4 OF LAST 5 WOULD GO OVER TOTAL 7.5 
AND IF I FUCK AROUND AND SAY OVER I WOULDN'T FEEL SO BAD IF IT HITS.. BUT NOT CONSIDERED A SYSTEM PLAY

I'M EITHER BLOWING SMOKE UP EVERYONE'S ASS BUT HOW IS IT THAT THERE IS NO INPUT HERE WHILE THE SYSTEM IS DEF RELIABLE JUST NEEDS FINE TUNING, AND I NEED SOME SUGGESTIONS PEOPLE!!!

ITS NOT LIKE YOU CANT DO THE MATH YOURSELF FOR EVERY GAME IF YOU WISH.

OTHER PEOPLE HAVE SYSTEMS LIKE OPENING GAME CHASE FAVORITE AND EVERYONE HAS QUESTIONS SUGGESTIONS N SHIT AND THERE IS HEAVY JUICE INVOLVED THIS IS LOW JUICE AND BACKED BY SIMPLE STATISTICS

THESE MATHEMATICIANS HAVE JOBS BECAUSE THIS SHIT IS PROVEN WITH NUMBER AND PERCENTILE

2% THE NYM V HOU GAME WOULD GO OVER 7.5 !!

ITS BOTTOM OF THE SEVENTH AND ITS 1 TO 1 TIE

I WOULD TAKE 10-1 ODDS THIS GAME DOESN'T TOP 5 RUNS

(I DON'T WATCH MOST OF THE GAMES LIVE I JUST FOLLOW MLB.COM GAMECAST)

ANYWAY.. ON TO TOMORROWS MATCHUP IF ANYONE HAS A GAME SELECTION.. OR IF THEY HAVE PITCHERS NUMBERS FOR TOMORROW FEEL FREE TO POST HERE.

08/17 FLA @ PIT  NOLASCO V DUKE

https://i35.tinypic.com/212cwux.jpg

1H COMBINED
72 % UNDER 4 RUNS
2 % 4-8 RUNS
1 % 6-8 RUNS
NOLASCO AVG 1.4
DUKE AVG 2.6
TOTAL IS EXACTLY 4

GAME COMBINED
42 % UNDER 4 RUNS
12 % 4-8 RUNS
3 % 6 OR MORE RUNS
63 % UNDER 6 RUNS
NOLASCO AVG 3.1
DUKE AVG 3.9
TOTAL IS 7

THE LINE IS NOT RELEASED AT MY BOOK BUT I WOULD PUT A SMALL WAGER ON THE UNDER 1ST HALF IF ITS 5

TOTAL GAME WILL MOST LIKELY GO OVER BUT 63 % SAYS THEY BOTH STAY UNDER 6 MEANING I WONT PLAY IT

TAKES SOME TIME TO CHURN THESE OUT SO THIS THREAD PROBABLY WONT LAST TOO LONG

https://i33.tinypic.com/2ypc0zt.jpg

1H COMBINED
8 % LESS THAN 2 RUNS
49 % UNDER 4
6 % 4-8

8% UNDER 2 & UNDER 50% FOR UNDER 4 IN FIRST HALF..
DOESNT SOUND ANYTHING LIKE:
1H = X < 2 RUNS EACH 28%    2 + = 18%            
1H 2-4 RUNS EACH 5%
63 % 1H 0-3.9 ALLOWED RUNS

SO LOOKS LIKE AN OVER IN 5 HERE ESP WITH LATEST PITCHING BY BOTH GUYS
GARCIA GIVING UP AN AVG OF 5 IN 5  (LAST 3 GAMES)

BUSH 5 - AVG 2.9 RUNS
GARC 5 - AVG 3.1 RUNS
TOTAL IS 6

PLAYING THE OVER FOR FIRST HALF (IF ITS UNDER 5) SMALL WAGER -

GAME COMBINED
56% 2-8
6 % 4-8
6% 6-10
12% 4 - 10 ?
2% 10 + RUNS

BUSH GAME AVG 5.2 RUNS
GARC GAME AVG 5.4 RUNS
TOTAL IS 10.6

REALLY LIKE THE OVER FOR THE GAME AS WELL.. HOWEVER DO NOTE:
07/02 MIL @ STL 5-0 GARCIA W!
06/06 MIL @ STL 3-4 GARCIA L!
04/10 STL @ MIL 7-1 GARCIA W!
04/09 STL @ MIL 5-4 BUSH L!

ALL THESE GAMES STAYED UNDER AT OR UNDER 8

Grov, just because, nobody is posting, doesn't mean nobody is reading. Looks like your ideas have merit, but i'm having a hard time figuring what is and isn't a play, or the record of the official plays. Keep at it, maybe we can all find something profitable in this.

1 TO 1 TODAY