RL System

Boston delivers a moose. otherwise a good night.  Hey MCSI you might want to look into o/u lines as a possible filter to select the best chance of hitting the RL.  Made a difference last year.  I posted the info in my opening game fav thread.

Play for 4/25

(A)20-30-35-39

(B)15-15-15

(C)15-15-15-30

BOS RL (+120)   45/54

Thanks for the info Rizz, I'll check that out.

The 2009 season broke down like this...

A wins   130
B wins     59
C wins     39

So far this year we are at

A 10-6
B  2-4
C  1-2 (with Bos pending for today)

Thank you for the Win numbers.  Do you have the number of losses for 2009 for Game A,B, C?

 

Series Record 13-3 +38.50(+1.9 units)

After about 10 days of this system I've come to 2 conclusions.

1st....Boston blows, they are responsible for 2 of the 3 loses.

2nd...1.5 units per week just isn't going to cut it.... Over the next few set of games I'm going to be tracking a few stats of these teams to see if I can find a filter that will eliminate some of these loses without taking out to many of the wins.

Plays for 4/26

(A)20-30-35-39

FLA RL (+135)    59/79.65

CHC RL (+135)    59/79.65

MIL RL (-105)      61.95/59

LAA RL (115)       59/67.85 

(B)15-15-15

(C)15-15-15-30-45

MCSI,

I agree.  Boston is not getting it done.  Let me present you with some food for thoughts.

This is the data I get from therizz's thread:

________________________________________________________

I Originally tested this system by playing ALL games on the -1.5 RL regardless of odds.  Wanted to make sure this was posted for those interested. AL 2009 (all plays on the -1.5 runline regardless of odds)= 109-10 Game 1 wins= 66 (66-53, 55.4%) Game 2 wins = 22 (22-31, 41%) Game 3 wins = 21 (21-10, 67.7%)          109-94, 53.7% NL 2009 = 114-19 Game 1 wins = 74    (74-59, 55.6%) Game 2 wins = 29    (29-30, 49.1%) Game 3 wins = 11    (11-19, 36.6%)        114-108, 51.4%

AL 2008 (all plays on the -1.5 runline regardless of odds)= 108-13

Game 1 wins= 65 (65-56, 53.7%)

Game 2 wins = 26 (26-30, 46.4%)

Game 3 wins = 17 (17-13, 56.7%)          108-99, 52.2%

NL 2009 = 130-17

Game 1 wins = 73    (73-74, 49.7%)

Game 2 wins = 38    (38-36, 51.4%)

Game 3 wins = 11    (19-17, 36.6%)        130-127, 50.6%

If we just look at the Game A Wins/Loss for 2009 for both Home and Away Teams at -150 or above, you will see it is 140-112, according to therizz .  However, you said by just playing Home teams, your wins for 2009 is 130 wins.  So, assuming the losses is 112 for 2009, the record for Game A Home Team is 130-112 - a 53.7% winning percentage .  This is a profitable angle with Labourchere. I am very sure the losses are less than 112 with just Home Teams.  If you can research the number of losses on just Home Teams, we can get a very accurate picture of just playing Game A.

Oops.  The data for therizz is -1.5 RL regardless of odds.

sean you stated it correctly.  All of the A games would have been -145 or higher.  The "regardless of odds" refers to games 2 and 3 of the chase I was testing.  Meaning that I would have played -1.5 RL even if the team I was chasing had + odds.  Hope this makes sense.  Your original thought was right and this would be a profitable angle which may have been better with just home teams... Remember only 34 of the 260 or so series from 2009 were played on road teams. 

therizz,

Thanks a lot for clarifying that.  You and MCSI have been very generous at sharing this system.

My thought is if we have a 53.7% angle with Game A playing mostly underdogs or slight favorites we have a good chance of making a profit.  Couple that with Labourchere Money Management and we should do ok.  We can skip Game B and C and reduce the risk of getting killed by the likes of Boston.

I still like to see the number of losses for Home Team in Game A, though. 

sean38,

The totals I come up with from 2009 was 228-45.

A wins  130
B wins    59
C wins    39

To get the A loses I'm guessing you add up the B and C wins along with the 45 loses. Which would make the A set of games 130-143 (48%). Quite a bit different from what Rizz came up with. Hopefully his numbers are more accurate, cause they look a lot more profitable.

One thing that I decided was that I was going to eliminate the C bets all together. As for the B bets there is something that I want to back test before I decide on if I'm going to bet on those or not. That is if the team we bet on wins the A bet by 1 run (like the Cubs last night), what is their record on the run line in their next game? So far, in 2 out of the 3 loses, the team we bet on won by 1 run in game A, but never did get the run line cover in bets B or C.

Because of that I just took a loss on the Cubs series, and will start back up with the next series of games on Thursday/Friday.

With that being said, and getting back to your point, it does appear that we could profit just playing the A games. Rizz came up with 55% and I came up with 48%. Even at 48%, playing it on the labourchere and with a lot of the bets being + odds, it could be profitable.

Thoughts, suggestions??  

Series Record 16-4  $186.00(+9.3 units)

Good night hitting 3 of the 4 RL bets. Going ahead and taking a loss on the Cubs series. Explanation in last post.

Next set of plays will be on Thursday.

Not sure how to attribute the differences???  Did you use the scores and odds posted on covers or another source?

When I ran my analysis there were 51 sweeps (around 20% or so) by the favored team..  I have been meaning to look through playing every game in the series to win on the RL as opposed to stopping once you get your victory just to see what the percentage is.  I can hopefully do this during the weekend.  We are starting to look at things like opening o/u for the series, teamrankings, and the series prices offered at the beginning of series to better determine which series will win and/or cover on the runline... I don't have detailed enough data to backtest all of this but hopefully we will have some good stuff by the middle to end of the season.

I got all my odds and scores from covers. I did it manually and I'm sure I could have missed something here and there, but I believe its fairly accurate. Did you have all your info in a database and run a query on it, or did you have to do it manually also?

I have been taking notes of overall TR, home/away TR, L10 TR, RPI, runs scored avg, runs allowed avg, and series prices. Like you said, by seasons end we should have some good info to digest and see what works.

hmmm.  yea I used covers info also but put it all into an excel spreadsheet.  I did not test anything after second week of september which may account for some of the difference...  I also backtested in another database I have based only on opening odds and the numbers were consistent???

therizz data is for ALL teams at odds of -145 or higher using RL.  MCSI is for only HOME teams at -140 or higher using RL.

Right?

So MCSI Home Team performance of -140 or higher using RL is:

Game A:  130-143 (47.6%)

Game B:   58-84    (41.3%)

Game C:   39-45    (46.4%)

This sounds about right?

  

Yes, that is what I came up with.

Plays for 4/29

(A)15-15-15-15

TB RL (-115)   34.50/30

SD RL (+160)     30/48

LAD RL (-110)     33/30

Cubs should be a play also but the odds for the RL isn't out yet.

Plays for 4/30

(A)x-15-15-x

PHI RL (+135)    30/40.50

NYY RL (-115)    34.50/30

FLA RL (-110)        33/30

STL RL (+110)       30/33

SEA RL (+145)      30/43.50

(B)15-15-15-15

LAD RL (-115)      34.50/30

Adding...

ATL RL (+105)   30/31.50

Plays for 5/1

(A)15-15-15-15-31

(B)x-15-15-15-31

STL RL (+105)     46/48.30

PHI RL (EV)        46/46

FLA RL (+130)    46/59.90

SEA RL (-110)    50.60/46

teams that do win on the RL do they also win on the ML too ?

Yes, they also win on the ML. Just trying to find a system that doesn't involve having to lay heavy juice on ML favorites.

Series record 24-5 +303.00(+15.15 units)

Back tomorrow with Monday's plays.

MCSI, are you playing on SEA today or just leaving it alone?