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"expertcapper NHL ...'old simple system'...part2

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Posted: #26
Games for Monday 29Dec
 
NYI(C1)/NYR(C2)....2units....UNDER 5.5....
Mon(C2)/Fla(C2)...2units....UNDER 5.5....
SJ(C1)/Dal(C1)...1unit...UNDER 5.5....
Nas/Col(C2)...2units...UNDER 5.5....
 
.....system is now 57-2 with alot of third games in the chase coming up....
 
Tuesday Dec 30 games....
 
Was(C3)/Buf(C1)...4units
Chi(C3)/Det(C1)...4units
Mon(C3)/TB(C2)...4units
NY/StL(C2)...2units
 
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by gasman33:

 

...please take some time and backtest that to see if it beats the current system...I would be interested in how your "under 5" stacks up to the current one I am following...

 

I looked at just the last month on what you said...

If you took UNDER 5/Over 5.5/UNDER 6...

....wudda gone 32-40-2....44% winner

 

...if you took UNDER5/OVER 5.5...

...wudda gone 38-38

 
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Posted: #28
 
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Posted: #29
....I was out of town....
 
....no-one kept this thread alive...
 
I have changed my bet strategy since reading the extensive USAKANGYs data research...here is the "strategy" now that I will be following in this thread...
 
1.     2 game bet chase only...better payout
2.     If OT/SO occurs...chasing ONLY HOME TEAM...better payout 
3.     If line is 5...play OVER
        If line is 5.5.....play UNDER
        If line 6 or more....Play OVER 
 
....so Sat 3Jan09 plays are...
 
Buf(C2)/Bos...2units
NYR(C3)/Was...4 units.....last play of the "older" system
Ott/Tor(C2)...2units
Det/Min(C1)...1unit.
 
 
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Posted: #30
I don't think I'd risk 4 units on NYR(C3)/Was. Washington has been putting up a lot of goals lately and when these two teams met last time the total was 9. I know the system says to play the under but I'd reconsider on this game.
 
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Posted: #31
I'm following you here on the rest of the plays though. Did you back test the system based on only a 2 game chase to see how many units you'd have if you just chased to two games??
 
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Posted: #32
read USAKANGYs thread...he has back tested all of the "angles"...
 
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Posted: #33
....so Sat 3Jan09 plays are...
 
Buf(C2)/Bos...2units....Over6...push
NYR(C3)/Was...4 units.....last play of the "older" system...
Ott/Tor(C2)...2units...
Det/Min(C1)...1unit....
 
....63-7 winning record
 
 
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by gasman33:


 
....63-7 winning record
 
 


Not too be insulting but is it really possible to be showing a decent profit with 7 series losses? Are they all 3 game series that lost? It is true that the record is a winning one but got to put things in perspective. The juice on totals is not too bad but still ...
 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:



Not too be insulting but is it really possible to be showing a decent profit with 7 series losses? Are they all 3 game series that lost? It is true that the record is a winning one but got to put things in perspective. The juice on totals is not too bad but still ...

well I did not keep the "unit" profit on this "system" because of the other football bets included with my book...

....but a 3game loss is -7-7units X 7series =-53.9units

...then 63 1unit wins=  +63-53.9= essentially +10 unit profit

...63 2unit wins (on avg)= 126-53.9= essentially +72unit profit

 

....either way it is a winning system don't ya think....

 
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Posted: #36
I have changed my bet strategy since reading the extensive USAKANGYs data research...here is the "strategy" now that I will be following in this thread...
 
1.     2 game bet chase only not 3...better payout
.....betting 1unit 1st game and 3unit 2nd game
2.     If OT/SO occurs...chasing ONLY HOME TEAM...better payout 
3.     If line is 5...play OVER
        If line is 5.5.....play UNDER
        If line 6 or more....Play OVER 
 
....so Sun 4Jan09 plays are...
 
TB/Atl(C2)...3units
Pho/Ana(C1)...1units
Min(C1)/Col...1unit.
 
 
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Posted: #37
Is there a site where I can go and check some o/u history?? I looked on wager tracker and they have the scores but don't have the line for o/u any help would be appreciated
 
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Posted: #38
Hey gasman, since I started posting over the Christmas break, there have been a lot (relative to the term) of three gamers that have lost.  The systems I post are still in the green, but wonder how long it will take before the games no longer go our way? 

I was back-testing the 06-07 season, and started out 34-0 for a three game home series record the first month (October) and 64-3 ANY team three game chase.  November and December have been brutal - going 61-12 and 127-22 respectively, for minus units.  Hoping the last three months of the season pick up... When I am done, I will post my findings in my thread.

Cappin, try the scroeboard on covers.  That has a bunch of information on past lines and past seasons history.
 
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Posted: #39
kangy...
 
I agree the OVER 6 games have seem to kick our butts in the (C3) games....
 
I have stopped chasing (C3) games...see above post...
 
I was going to start a 1-3 unit 2 game chase for a couple of weeks  but I may be more conservative and return to a 1-2 chase bet...
 
.....what would a 2game chase 1-3 unit system, cash in your 2 game home only OT/SO  chase system?  I would think it would be more that the 1-2 unit play...dunno
 
 
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by gasman33:

kangy...
 
I agree the OVER 6 games have seem to kick our butts in the (C3) games....
 
I have stopped chasing (C3) games...see above post...
 
I was going to start a 1-3 unit 2 game chase for a couple of weeks  but I may be more conservative and return to a 1-2 chase bet...
 
.....what would a 2game chase 1-3 unit system, cash in your 2 game home only OT/SO  chase system?  I would think it would be more that the 1-2 unit play...dunno
 

Gasman, just so I understand what you are asking and understand what you are doing.  You want to know what the units are for the two-game chase for home teams (System D in my posts) if we used the 1 unit-3 unit method.  If I understand, if game 1 hits, you are up 1 unit.  If game 1 loses, and game two hits, then we are up 2 units (not including the juice).  If both games miss, we are now down 4 units.  Is this correct?  If so, then here is what I have this year only....

System D according to my research has a series record of 107-24 (+35 UNITS) going into tonight's games. 

From my stats...  Of the 107 series wins by teams that were at home the night they played their OT games, 67 of those series were won in game 1 (67-65).  This means the other 40 series wins must have come from game 2 and are (40-24).  Buffalo is currently on a game 2 chase and four teams ATL, ANA, MIN, LA are on game 1 chases.  Keep in mind, pushes carry over and have not been counted.

For the 67 wins in game 1, we are +67 units.
For the 40 wins in game 2 that were NOT winners in game 1, we are +80 units.
For the 24 series losses, we are -96 units.

So the total would be about (+51 UNITS)


But since the Christmas break the series totals are 9-6...
First game chases are 5 wins (+5 units), 10 losses
Second game chases are 4 wins (+8 units), 6 losses (-24 units)
Total is -11 units, excluded juice.  I hope I did the math right.
 
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Posted: #41
Damn quote tags!   
Please see my last comment....

Anyway, there would be 4 open chases going into tonight's games  ATL, ANA, MIN, LA. 
 
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Posted: #42
....great work...
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by gasman33:

....great work...

Two of the five open series hit last night on the first game, see my thread for details.  The Atlanta game lost the first game of their chase and the other two teams were idle.
 
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Posted: #44
Tuesday 6Jan09 plays...
 
NJ(C1)/Car...1unit
Ott/Buf(C2)...2units
LAK(C1)/Ana(C2)...2units
 
 
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Posted: #45
Tuesday 6Jan09 plays...
 
NJ(C1)/Car...1unit....
Ott/Buf(C2)...2units...
LAK(C1)/Ana(C2)...2units
 
....series now at 66-9 
 
Tonight games 7Jan09
 
Mon(C1)/NYR....1unit
 
 
 
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Posted: #46
...I am letting this thread rest and will be posting or following USAKANGY system thread.
 
...the reason is that I am basically playing the same "modified system" from expertcapper that is now described as "System C" in USAKANGYs...I am playing the 3 game OT/SO initiated by the HOME team for a 1-2-4unit  chase
 
...so I will be playing his "C System" only plays...
 
Cya there...
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