Posted:
#151
Keep up the good work, and good luck.
0
Power Rating System ($1000 to $100,000 in 36 months)
Posted:
#152
thanks man..
Beginning Balance on sept 5: $1000
Current Balance on oct 2: $1336
Power Rating System: 72-74 (+$336)
breakdown:
MLB: 62-65 (+$268)
NFL: 8-5 (+$78)
CFB: 2-4 (-$10)
TOP plays: 8-4 (+4.27 units)
there will be no TOP play today.... the NFL selections for week 4 are posted a few posts back, ill re-post them tomorrow.
plays for saturday oct 2
147. Tigers (+1.60) ($25 to win $40) gallaraga/matusz
148. Cardinals (+1.60) ($25 to win $40) jiminez/lohse
149. padres (+1.05) ($25 to win $26) stauffer/zito
150. cubs (+1.10) ($25 to win $28) zambrano/happ
there will be no additions today, good luck with your college sports.
Thinker
0
SD play is the only play i don't like..
Posted:
#156
Quote Originally Posted by TheThinker:
running about 1 month ahead now.. as i hit Octobers goal of ($1323) yesterday but im sure there will be drawdowns... throw out the (2-4) college record and my Program is hitting exactly 50% (70-70) over 140 plays, with an average payback of roughly (+1.26)..
Thinker
EXCELLENT
0
Posted:
#157
Thinker,
First off, great work on this thread...I appreciate your dedication and patience with this system...keep up the good work!
I have a few questions regarding your system. Can you please clarify how your picks become system plays. From my understanding of your previous posts, you first rank all of the teams (AL and NL separately) according to your personal power ranking formula then you review all of the game matchups. If a higher ranked team is a dog it becomes a play to win straight up, is that correct? Also, are your picks based strictly on matchup or does the ML play a factor in your picks. For example, my book today is showing Tigers +147 and Cubs Even. Would these still be picks under the system?
Thanks, Thinker. I appreciate your contribution to the forum...
XXL
0
Posted:
#159
looks as though we picked up a nice win on the cardinals early saturday... i wish we knew the playoff matchups, so i could get to work on them... i will post, who my program favors in each series but i dont think that ill be betting the series.... well, i really still dont know... i may bet the series if the DOG should win it... ill need to see the matchups and the lines..
i did finish half of the program for the NHL... i must do an initial setup and that is very time consuming but then the program updates daily and i only have to spend a few minutes getting the selections...
Thinker
0
Posted:
#161
thanks man.. i do have a 2 part master plan, one for the selection process (excel program) and the other is the money management plan....
i will do sundays update by 12:30 pm cst.... ill be a little busy tomorrow morning....
the NFL plays for sunday were:
arizona (+3.30) $25 to win $83
Bears (+1.80) $25 to win $45
i have ran the card tomorrow, what i could of it and dont anticipate many more plays but everything will be posted by 12:30, probably 12:20 pm cst... sorry thats the best i can do tomorrow..
Thinker
0
Posted:
#162
here is the update for sunday oct 3
Beginning Balance on sept 5: $1000
Current Balance on oct 3: $1405
Power Rating System: 75-75 (+$405)
breakdown:
MLB: 65-66 (+$337)
NFL: 8-5 (+$78)
CFB: 2-4 (-$10)
TOP plays: 8-4 (+4.27 units)
plays for sunday oct 3
151. arizona (+3.30) $25 to win $83
152. bears (+1.80) $25 to win $45
the remainder of sundays card will be posted no later than 12:20 pm cst... i dont expect alot more for tomorrow..
Thinker
0
Posted:
#164
ok guys, here is the TOP play that im playing for the early games on sunday... this has no bearing on what im trying to do here but the selection was made by my program..
TOP play for sunday oct 3
Jets (pk)/Atlanta (-.5pt) on a 6pt teaser (-1.10)
if i have anything else, it will be posted later today..... i am in a transition, as i have about 3 more hrs to do on the NHL program, we are wrapping up a very successful month of baseball but i must get ready for the post-season, if we ever learn the matchups..
Thinker
0
Posted:
#168
for anyone following along.... i am going to keep playing the mlb selections, just like we have been doing, when the post season begins... if i make a series bet, it will be listed as a TOP play... if i am ever going to bet the favorite in an individual playoff game, it will be listed as a TOP play.... only the individual game underdogs selected will be part of our normal program................... in saying all that, the program will be selecting all the games, my opinions will not be included in any of it...
ill be working tomorrow on the MLB playoffs, if the giants win today.... i will get the NHL finished by thursday night...
Thinker
0
Posted:
#170
here is the update as we head into Oct 4
Beginning Balance on sept 5: $1000
Current Balance on oct 4: $1355
TOP plays: 9-4 (+5.27 units) (69.23% winners)
Power Rating System: 75-77 (+$355)
breakdown:
MLB:65-66 (+$337)
NFL: 8-7 (+$28)
CFB: 2-4 (-$10)
we have one play for monday night oct 4
153. dolphins (+1.00) $25 to win $25
there will be no TOP plays for today...
now let me catch everyone up, on whats going on this week.
1. NHL: we will be ready for opening night on thursday, i have about 3 more hours on intitial work to do on the program. i will probably not finish until wednesday.
2. NFL: we have survived the first 4 weeks with a profit.. this was my objective. i have had week 5 targeted for some time now, i believe i have mentioned that in previous posts.
3. CFB: i should have never played this, our program is for pro-sports only.... however i will probably resurrect this with the bowl games.
4. MLB: great start for us... we move right into the post season. all series bets made will be listed as TOP plays.. any favorites bet in individual games will be listed as a TOP play... the underdogs we bet in individual games will be part of our normal wagers for this thread.
Goals: i only have 1 major goal, to finish october with (+$1323) or more in the bankroll.. we currently sit at (+$1355)...
ill be working on the playoffs today.. i will be taking tomorrow off but i will post the mlb selections as soon as i have them... here were the final rankings for the mlb regular season, as to how the playoff teams rank.. and this has no bearing at all, on how my selections are made.
AL:
1. yanks
2. TB
3. Twins
4. Texas
NL:
1. Phillies
2. Giants
3. Braves
4. Reds
those were just my Power Rankings for both leagues...
any questions, fire away..
Thinker
0
Posted:
#171
it did not take me long to set the mlb playoffs up, as i had all the data in front of me and we are only dealing with 8 teams..
first off, i will not be making any Series wager.. the program showed a very strong play on the Phillies versus the Reds for the series but the price of (-2.80) is too high for me and should be too high for you as well...
here is how the program saw the matchups..
Philly Over Cincinatti (biggest play of the entire first round)
Giants Over Braves (this was close, if the braves can steal one at SF, then they could pull an upset) giants in 5
Yanks Over Twins (another close matchup) it all comes down to the twins holding serve at home...
TB Over Texas ( playing TB in this series would be the only first round series wager that i would make but i wont lay -1.75 and neither should you)
my program thinks the phillies will breeze thru round 1, the yanks and giants may struggle and TB will win against texas...
Here are my early wagers... for wednesday oct 6
TOP play: TB (-1.25) game 1 (lee/price)
normal play: Twins (+1.25) $25 to win $31 (sabaitha/lirano)
passing on the philly/reds game 1.... play is phillies but price is too high... so the reds might as well beat them...
ill repeat tomorrow in the daily update...
Thinker
0
Posted:
#173
sorry i am just getting back to you... TB (-1.45) is now at my book.. my program says its a good play but i am passing on all the divisional series bets...
Update for tuesday oct 5
Beginning Balance on sept 5: $1000
Current Balance on oct 5: $1330
Power Ratings Program: 75-78 (+$330)
breakdown:
MLB: 65-66 (+$337)
NFL: 8-8 (+$3)
CFB: 2-4 (-$10)
TOP plays: 9-4 (+5.27 units) (69.23%)
no plays for tuesday oct 5
pending plays for wednesday oct 6
154. Twins (+1.25) $25 to win $31 (lirano/sabaitha)
TOP Play: TB (-1.25) (lee/price)
Thinker
0
Posted:
#174
fyI: i have finished setting up my initial NHL program for the season. It will then begin to update daily... alot of hard work goes into setting up this initial program, so i hope things turn out very well...
a couple things to say, before we get started.... my goal will be to hit (50%), as we will only be playing (ML dogs).... we play to win, that means OT and shootouts are included....
i just looked at the first 2 days of the season and i do not expect alot of plays but the lines have not come out and i could be wrong. someone give me a heads up, when they post the lines..
this thread (and my goals) will ultimately "live and die" with regular season hockey and baseball...
i have the initial rankings for all the teams (again this is not how the picks are selected for wagering) and it seems Washington is #1 with a bullet..
1. Capitals
2. Chicago
3. Sharks
30. edmonton
that is just an overall ranking.... my program gives out some interesting information...
i suspect we start slow and pick up speed, when we get a couple weeks into the season..
good luck to all
Thinker
0
Hot Forum Topics
