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Power Rating System ($1000 to $100,000 in 36 months)

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Posted: #1426
Quote Originally Posted by outsidelookingn:

That might be great for you, but I'm positive not everybody started from day 1 or the first week for that matter.  Most would wait to see how it is going before they jumped onboard.  Infact if someone started with $1000 just 2 weeks ago they would be wiped out.

How would they be wiped out if they if they were betting a certain percentage of their bankroll per game???? As they were losing-the bets per game become smaller. The comment makes no sense.
 
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Posted: #1427
I do believe this thread and system will ultimately fail because of the fact that the $45 wagers were never decreased to compensate for the losing streak that has hit since December 1st.  Had you reduced to $20 or even $30 wagers, you would have lost substantially less units, and you would have "weathered the storm" much more effectively than the current numbers are showing.  

The idea of "being aggressive by not lowering the base-bet once we raise it" is by far the silliest money-management scheme I've ever come across in my years of gambling.  It really surprises me, because so many people in this thread have said things like "our money management is second to none!". Even Thinker himself has claimed this.  It cannot be further from the truth.

Would this system have worked if the base bets were decreased?  I can't answer that.  But unfortunately, I don't think we'll ever find the true answer.  Soon enough, the profits will likely dwindle down to the point where we started ($1000), and Thinker will likely shut down the system at that point.  

I've decreased my base bets starting December 3rd, and I haven't lost nearly as much as the numbers that Thinker posts on a daily basis.  As a matter of fact, I started tailing this thread when the system was already up $600, so I missed out on the first $600 of the picks.  However, right now you show a profit of less than $600, and my profit is $615.95.  You had a jump-start of $600 on me, yet for the first time in this thread, I've made more than Thinker's daily-update numbers.  

I'm not bragging, so please don't take it that way.  I'm just shocked and stunned that no one wanted to listen to what I've (and others) said for the past few weeks now.  Hell, I believe I even mentioned it when this thread first started. 

To better explain what I'm talking about, this was the update on October 14th.



Update for thursday oct 14

Beginning Balance on sept 5 2010: $1000

Current Balance on oct 14 2010: $1563 (New project high)

Power Ratings Program: 92-90 (+$563)

breakdown:

MLB: 70-68 (+$439)

NHL: 9-8 (+$78)

NFL: 11-10 (+$56)

CFB: 2-4 (-$10)

TOP plays: 9-5 (+4.02 units) (64%)


As you can see, the base bets were $30 when the profit margin was +$563.  Had you decreased the base-wagers back to $30 last night, before the sha-lack-ing (3-6), you would have saved yourself $15 per loss, which would have been $45.  And that's just last night alone.  Imagine if you had done that when you should have, starting December 3rd, when we fell below the "raise your wager" level.

I just think we've failed in money management, which is mind-boggling, since we've claimed proper money management since day 1.  

 
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Posted: #1428
May they rest in peace...na nink na nink na nink oh may they rest in peace *everybody in tears* ohhh may they REEEEST in peace *start doing the rosary*
 
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Posted: #1429
imo take the winnings and use them for your other project...this thing just keeps going backwards and backwards
 
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Posted: #1430

Quote Originally Posted by davopnz:

imo take the winnings and use them for your other project...this thing just keeps going backwards and backwards

 

Davo - what is the point of your useless comments ? seriously sick of morons like you who contribute absolutely nothing,but just come on here looking to gravy train off the hard work of others, and then bash them with retard comments when they hit a downswing. gtfo

 
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Posted: #1431

yes, the project is on the brink of disaster... i have nothing to say about it..... and its all happened in the last 11 days..

on dec 2, the record was (197-205) (+$2297)

at that point, i was 3 months into this project and actually thought that i had something that would make me rich...

today, just 11 days later, here is the update

 

Beginning balance on sept 5 2010: $1000

Current balance on dec 13 2010: $1475

 

Computer Program: 213-244 (+$475)

 

plays for monday dec 13

458. Atlanta (+1.00) $45 to win $45

459. Columbus (+1.15) $45 to win $52

460. Portland (+1.40) $45 to win $63

 

let me be very clear about this... i have made a little money with this, most of you havent.... if i drop under $1000 this project is over, i do not lose money... if i do not meet the Jan 1 goal of ($1750) this project is over...

otherwise, i will play and post the plays every day, without altering anything..

i will simply move on to my next project and will return for baseball 2011 with this program...

i really dont have anything else to say, except there could be 1 more addition... if there is, it will be posted by 12:00 pm cst today.

Falcon

 
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Posted: #1432

I hope the turn around begins today!  Let's right this ship!

If you quit, I'm sure it would be too much to ask to continue to post your plays for any of us that may choose to see this through to the bitter end.

Let's hope we don't have to worry about that and the results start going are way!

Thanks for your hard work Thinker it is appreciated.

 
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Posted: #1433

what a long strange trip it's beennnnn....

grinding here....will be in for turn-around tonight....BOL

 

 
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Posted: #1434

Thinker,

i hope it turns around, and you go on a hot run, if not, it appears you at least had the foundations of a solid program, a few pieces of the puzzle ..I understand why people try to keep their "systems" and "programs" secret, however, on the other hand I think there is a lot of people here working on things, crunching numbers, going over data ,etc, trying to find the silver bullet ..I think if more people laid out the parameters of their systems in  the threads, as opposed to just the picks, someone else may have  a few of the missing pieces to take the system to the next level. I have yet to see a system or program here that has lasted a full season (except my CFL one, which even then, still needs some work imo) ..so generally (not just you, but this forum in particular) , i think there should be much more emphasis on collaboration of ideas, and working on systems as a community, then what we currently have, which is,. i have a system, these are my picks...

 
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Posted: #1435
Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

i think there should be much more emphasis on collaboration of ideas, and working on systems as a community, then what we currently have, which is,. i have a system, these are my picks...

Definitely could be benificial to all, like you said there are lots of great ideas, and hard work happening behind the scenes, a collaboration of efforts could certainly help.

Good stuff Neilsy

 
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Posted: #1436
Its really strange how when we are on a winning run everything is good but when a losing streak hits things seem to crumble....This system is not done,its just because of thinker's aggressive money management that make things seem worst than it really is....another thing is there are too many games lately....

Not bashing or anything like that just my .02...This is a nice system for the long term,so far so good for me,although i stop tailing some days ago because the interest seem not to be there anymore cos of the losing days we have....satisfied with $432 i made and will start tailing again if things seem right to me... and its sad to see something with the potential this system has go....


It wouldn't hurt thinker adjust the bet amount base on if we win or lose but i dont like the idea of sticking to a fix amount even if we are on a losing streak...Hope thinker can make some adjustment to save this system.....

GL as always, appreciate your works man..  
 
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Posted: #1437
Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25:

 

Davo - what is the point of your useless comments ? seriously sick of morons like you who contribute absolutely nothing,but just come on here looking to gravy train off the hard work of others, and then bash them with retard comments when they hit a downswing. gtfo



umm falcon admitted it's looking bad himself....i made a fair suggestion that he take the winnings he still has and use them on his new project with is a fair suggestion
 
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Posted: #1438
Thinker, you said the project has taken a nosedive over the last 11 days, which it has, but take a look at the league trends for the NHL and NBA over the past week.

In the NHL, on the season, dogs are hitting at a 43% rate, which is just about in line with last season's trends.  But, if you look at just the last 7 days, dogs are only winning 37% of the time.

Same thing in the NBA.  On the season, dogs are winning almost 33% of the time, but over the past week, only 22% (and only 38% ATS).

So it's not like your program is suddenly unable to pick winners.  Anyone playing NBA and NHL dogs over the past 11 days has probably had a rough go of it.  Dogs and favs aren't going to win at a consistent rate over a season.  You keep saying how its a journey, a marathon not a sprint, so why worry about 11 days out of 36 months?

Keep at it.  Even if you miss a monthly goal, I say stick it out for another month to see if it turns around.

That being said, I do have to agree with most saying the money management could use some work.  I like to use a daily percentage myself, but that's just me.

But don't give up yet.  You've worked too hard to throw it all away now.

GL.
 
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Posted: #1439
Quote Originally Posted by TheThinker:

yes, the project is on the brink of disaster... i have nothing to say about it..... and its all happened in the last 11 days..

on dec 2, the record was (197-205) (+$2297)

at that point, i was 3 months into this project and actually thought that i had something that would make me rich...

today, just 11 days later, here is the update

 

Beginning balance on sept 5 2010: $1000

Current balance on dec 13 2010: $1475

 

Computer Program: 213-244 (+$475)

 

plays for monday dec 13

458. Atlanta (+1.00) $45 to win $45

459. Columbus (+1.15) $45 to win $52

460. Portland (+1.40) $45 to win $63

 

let me be very clear about this... i have made a little money with this, most of you havent.... if i drop under $1000 this project is over, i do not lose money... if i do not meet the Jan 1 goal of ($1750) this project is over...

otherwise, i will play and post the plays every day, without altering anything..

i will simply move on to my next project and will return for baseball 2011 with this program...

i really dont have anything else to say, except there could be 1 more addition... if there is, it will be posted by 12:00 pm cst today.

Falcon


You've almost completely and utterly missed the point I was attempting to make in post #1427.  Either that, or you didn't read the post at all.

The program is not a failure.  I still believe the program and the picks will ultimately turn themselves around.  Your ridiculous money-management is the failure. 

By not reducing your wagers when the profit margin was decreased, you've essentially let 1 bad run destroy a bankroll that took months and months to build.  The statement that you made earlier in this thread, something along the lines of "I will not decrease the wagers because I choose to be aggressive" is now going to be your downfall.  There is a fine line between aggressive and stupid, and you've crossed it.

Look, I've been gambling for many, many years, as I'm sure you have, Thinker.  I cannot pick games myself.  I'm just awful at it.  Instead, I choose to tail systems and individuals that seem to have a knack for picking professional games.  Every system or capper that I've ever tailed has run into a tough month.  In August, they might be 50-15, but in September, they might be 20-45.  This happens with everyone, and always has.  Doesn't matter if it's a computer system or the human brain.

The key is to not let the 20-45 record destroy your bankroll.  The only way to prevent that from happening is by sound, proper money-management.  This is where you have failed.  Your system is fine, and I bet if you continue to track it and/or wager on it, you'll ultimately hit your goal, or come very close.  But by not decreasing your wagers during a rough month, you've broken the cardinal rule of this thread, as well as the cardinal rule of gambling:  Be smart with your money.

Myself and other tried to warn you, but your ignorance to our posts and attempts to help have fallen on deaf ears.
 
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Posted: #1440
Quote Originally Posted by jimmyrickards:

Thinker, you said the project has taken a nosedive over the last 11 days, which it has, but take a look at the league trends for the NHL and NBA over the past week.

In the NHL, on the season, dogs are hitting at a 43% rate, which is just about in line with last season's trends.  But, if you look at just the last 7 days, dogs are only winning 37% of the time.

Same thing in the NBA.  On the season, dogs are winning almost 33% of the time, but over the past week, only 22% (and only 38% ATS).

So it's not like your program is suddenly unable to pick winners.  Anyone playing NBA and NHL dogs over the past 11 days has probably had a rough go of it.  Dogs and favs aren't going to win at a consistent rate over a season.  You keep saying how its a journey, a marathon not a sprint, so why worry about 11 days out of 36 months?

Keep at it.  Even if you miss a monthly goal, I say stick it out for another month to see if it turns around.

That being said, I do have to agree with most saying the money management could use some work.  I like to use a daily percentage myself, but that's just me.

But don't give up yet.  You've worked too hard to throw it all away now.

GL.

This is exactly what I was referring to in posts #1427 and #1440.  It will turn around, mark my words.  Had we reduced the wagers once we fell below +$750, we would have another $215 in our accounts right now.  Added to the $475 that we're currently up, and it doesn't seem too bad, does it?

I also think that quiting once we hit the $1000 starting point is wrong.  Whenever you start a system or tailing a capper, you start with what you intend to lose.  In this case, we intended to take the $1000 investment and turn it into $100,000.  If we fail, we lose $1000.  But what Thinker is referring to will have us stop when we hit $1000 again, essentially losing nothing.  That's just not how it's supposed to be.

Everyone has their own way of thinking, I guess.  I'm just trying to point out the faults that we've made thus far to try and "right the ship" before it's too late.
 
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Posted: #1441
JimmyRickards 
smdio 

Not only do I agree with what you're saying, I also appreciate the proper grammar/spelling/punctuation.  It's not that hard but it makes all the difference when reading. 
 
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Posted: #1442
What I take from Thinkers system is that he has created a program to pick Dogs. This program uses statistics to make the selections.

 That is a good start to pick dogs, but so much more is involved. Travel, health,attitude,strategy,pace,style of play, referees and other things factor into it, that his program probably doesn't take into account.

Either way, he should be commended. Better to try and fail than to not try at all.Sometimes it means you are just that much closer to success.
 
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Posted: #1443
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

JimmyRickards 
smdio 

Not only do I agree with what you're saying, I also appreciate the proper grammar/spelling/punctuation.  It's not that hard but it makes all the difference when reading. 

I pride myself on that kind of thing!  So thanks 
 
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Posted: #1444
Quote Originally Posted by the-profit:

What I take from Thinkers system is that he has created a program to pick Dogs. This program uses statistics to make the selections.

 That is a good start to pick dogs, but so much more is involved. Travel, health,attitude,strategy,pace,style of play, referees and other things factor into it, that his program probably doesn't take into account.

Either way, he should be commended. Better to try and fail than to not try at all.Sometimes it means you are just that much closer to success.

    Well said, Profit.  It's nice to see some constructive and on-the-money remarks in these threads once in a while.
                                                     
 
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Posted: #1445
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

JimmyRickards 
smdio 

Not only do I agree with what you're saying, I also appreciate the proper grammar/spelling/punctuation.  It's not that hard but it makes all the difference when reading. 


I know what you mean.  I had to leave another forum because apparently they spoke a different language. 
 
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Posted: #1446
oh boy...
 
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Posted: #1447

update for tuesday dec 14

 

Beginning balance on sept 5 2010: $1000

Current balance on dec 14 2010: $1430

 

Computer Program Plays: 214-246 (+$430)

 

46.5% winning selections... over 460 plays.... posted for 100 straight days, today is 101....  i wanted better numbers but taken as a whole, those numbers aint bad.... im sure the only thread here in this section that has ran 100 consecutive days... how many things have you done for 100 straight days?

this thread will run, until i drop below $1000 or i do not meet the Jan 1 goal of $1750....

the program has not and will not be altered in any way... i will not work on it, ill simply move on to my next project...

 

plays for tuesday dec 14

461. Penguins (+1.10) $45 to win $50

462. Leafs (+1.00) $45 to win $45

463. Raptors (+1.70) $45 to win $77

464. Sacremento (+4.00) $45 to win $180

465. Nuggets (+1.00) $45 to win $45

 

a win by sacrmento would sure help this dying project...

 

back wednesday

 

Falcon

 
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Posted: #1448
why would u totally dump a project that has hit 46% of dogs over 100 days because of what could be a couple bad shootouts to drop you under your goal or not get to your posted goal ?? a few minor tweaks which could include line variance from start of the day to or point spread movement... something small and minute could bring your precentage back up to 50% or even alittle higher .... i jus think its a bad way to end off by blowing this system up completly .... g/l with your plays
 
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Posted: #1449
jimmyrickards, this is a day later but I was checking out those same numbers yesterday (season trends) and concluded the same thing. I've just started working on sorting out the number of dog wins and losses from the start of the past 2 seasons to compare with thinkers work and did come across the high and low dog win rate in just the first few months of last year. My vote would be stick with it and lower the wager size to coinside with current bankroll.  It's going to take me a couple of days to finish my research and I'll post results here if its ok.
 
 
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Posted: #1450
Quote Originally Posted by TheThinker:

update for tuesday dec 14

 

Beginning balance on sept 5 2010: $1000

Current balance on dec 14 2010: $1430

 

Computer Program Plays: 214-246 (+$430)

 

46.5% winning selections... over 460 plays.... posted for 100 straight days, today is 101....  i wanted better numbers but taken as a whole, those numbers aint bad.... im sure the only thread here in this section that has ran 100 consecutive days... how many things have you done for 100 straight days?

this thread will run, until i drop below $1000 or i do not meet the Jan 1 goal of $1750....

the program has not and will not be altered in any way... i will not work on it, ill simply move on to my next project...

 

plays for tuesday dec 14

461. Penguins (+1.10) $45 to win $50

462. Leafs (+1.00) $45 to win $45

463. Raptors (+1.70) $45 to win $77

464. Sacremento (+4.00) $45 to win $180

465. Nuggets (+1.00) $45 to win $45

 

a win by sacrmento would sure help this dying project...

 

back wednesday

 

Falcon


Head down, ears closed, ignorant as any I've ever met, and still $45 wagers

This will be the last time I post in this thread.  Regardless of how many smart, intelligent gamblers give Thinker advice in this thread, he continues to go about his ways without regard to outside opinion.

GL to all, I'll stick with dj_destroyer and advise you all do the same.  At least he's good at accepting criticism and changing what is good/bad about his capping skills
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