Over / Under Poisson strategy

By the way i just take games over 70%

No man, since I lost 5 totals tuesday on british soccer I found a way to include the defense in my calculator and the results are much better. I compute over/under both for offence and defense and than make the mean between chances given by the offense and chances given by the defense and that mean it's my estimate for over / under chances.

I am curious about basketball. I didn't say it's not working because I've tried, but the point is that scoring in any sport where you can score more than 1 point at a given time is not a Poisson process and the points are not distributed accordingly to the Poisson distribution.

I don't know about anyone trying to test it for basketball totals, but, at least in theory, it's not supposed to work.

Keep posting when you have much data for basketball.

These are the plays i come up with in college bb...no nba with ovr 70%
90% or ovr
Wash St at ASU ovr 107.5
Pepperdine at SF und 140.5
80% or ovr
Mich St at Iowa ovr 124.5
Troy at N. Texas und 162.5
Fla Int. at New Orleans und 123.5
Nevada at Utah St ovr 131
Illinois at Minnesota ovr 127
S. Alabama at Denver ovr 122
Portland St at Montana ovr 132.5
70% or ovr
Clemson at Va. Tech ovr 143.5
Alabama at Arkansas ovr 138.5
San Diego at Portland ovr 123
California at UCLA ovr 140
Stanford at USC ovr 135
Cal Irvine at Cal Riverside ovr 121
Saint Marys at Gonzaga ovr 144.5
Georgia Southern at Samford ovr 130.5
Jacksonville St. at SE Missouri St und 146.5
E. Washington at Montana St. und 132
N. Colorado at Sacramento St und 138

Alot of games. The totals were taken from yesterday at bookmaker so the totals might have changed. See how it plays out.

calinreddog how can you send those spreadsheets you have for win% & all the other ones you have?

reddog who do you use for a book because at my book they don't have european hockey

Expekt, Ladbrokes, 10bet.

calinreddog what did you come up in nhl today? I got dallas-detroit ovr 5.5 & NJ-Boston ovr 5.5 with this last one rated higher.

good stuff so far calin

Thanks, I've been working the last week on 2 systems: one for O/U and one for sides. The sides system let me down today but the O/U system works much better and works pretty constantly so far, so I'll stick only to my over / under system.

Check your e-mail.

What does PWP stand for on the spreadsheet? On Toronto-Col i only get 57.44 chances for ovr according to the spreadsheet. I thought you took plays at 60%? Maybe i understood wrong or i dont know if i missed something.

I have 60.34% over at TOR@COL. Did you use the home numbers for colorado and away numbers for toronto?

I have col at home 25 / 78 / 69 and toronto away 25 / 74 / 95.

And PWP is projected winning percentage.

I got my numbers from nhl.com col is 25-75-69 toronto 25-73-93. Where did you get your stats?

again when do these games take place what time here in America?

They usually start around 11:00 (ET). At 11:00 always start the hockey games in Slovakia, at 11:30 in Czech and Finland, at 13:00 in Sweden and so on. In Russia they can start earlier (may start at 06:00 ET, depends where is the game played in Russia).

calinreddog are you using pwp spreadsheet for bb to get the plays for your totals?