Posted:
#76
reddog: you must condense your selections. if not,the vig will evaporate your hard and good work.
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Over / Under Poisson strategy
Posted:
#77
Quote Originally Posted by ferndog:
calinreddog on the PWP spreadsheet when it calculates the odds, are these value odds you should look for to get a value play? Is that what it calculates? For example on sunday chelsea at liverpool i got on the spreadsheet PWP chelsea 0.62 & odds at 1.59. Does this mean that if i can get chelsea better than 1.59 this is worth a look?
calinreddog on the PWP spreadsheet when it calculates the odds, are these value odds you should look for to get a value play? Is that what it calculates? For example on sunday chelsea at liverpool i got on the spreadsheet PWP chelsea 0.62 & odds at 1.59. Does this mean that if i can get chelsea better than 1.59 this is worth a look?
that's it
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Posted:
#78
Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:
great job today man
never thought that many NCAA bball overs would hit
great job today man
never thought that many NCAA bball overs would hit
Thank you; I am 13-3 win-loss on college bb by now.
That means 81.25% so it seems I found a little secret about college bb totals. It's only a formula using 4 numbers: points for and against for both teams. Nothing more. I don't even look at the teams names. I don't know anything about basketball. I have never played or watched a basketball game my entire life. It's only math, very simple.
I will keep testing my formula for a few days here on this topic and continue to post my picks before the games start. I use the same formula for NBA but at NBA I am only 
8-3 (72.7%) the last 2 days.
Watch my picks and good luck!
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Posted:
#80
As a connclusion I think we may say that poisson distribution estimates pretty good the chances for soccer and hockey games to go under or over. If you find the value, poisson formula can make a little profit in the long run for soccer and hockey.
But I've become the last 2 days more concerned about the basketball totals and I found a method that's not poisson so there's no point to post about my basketball over/under system in this thread. Poisson doesn't apply to basketball because socring in basketball is not a poisson process.
So good luck to everybody who will like to try a poisson approach for soccer and hockey. I made an Excel worksheet for soccer and hockey that can be downloaded from my livespace (https://cid-c9f94e792da7f590.skydrive.live.com/browse.aspx/Sport%20Betting?uc=1).
I will start a new thread aimed to basketball totals only.
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Posted:
#83
Mr. Robo,
I added another line to Calin's prototype spreadsheet that also factors the juice. For me this works as an additional filter. I calculate the required break-even percentage required for the particular juice. Then I calculate calculate the relative value of the bet.........I am new to sports betting so I may not have the proper vocabulary......here goes....
Per the Poisson ratio, the STL/DET game had a 59.7% probability of going OVER 5. The line was 5.5 with -135 moneyline (ML)
When laying odds (i.e. -105,-110,-120,-135, etc...), the formula for calculating the break even percentage (BE%)is [-(ML)+100]/100 ===>
BE% = [-(-135)+100]/100 = 57.4%
(i.e. you have to win 57.4% of the time to beak even when laying -135)
When getting odd (i.e. +110,+155,+125,Even or 100), the formula for calculating the break even required is 100/(ML+10)
To calculate the relative value of a bet, I use the following formula:
Value = [(probability of winning) - (BE%)] / [100-(BE%)]
for tonight
Value = (59.7-57.4) / (100-57.4) = 0.053 or 5.3%
Now, the question is...... was this a good bet?
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Posted:
#85
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:
Calin,
Did you take the spreadsheets down on your link? I can see them there, but cant get then to download.
Thanks
cd
The spreadsheet it's there and you should be able to dowload it:
https://cid-c9f94e792da7f590.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/Sport%20Betting/Poisson.xls
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Posted:
#87
Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:
The spreadsheet it's there and you should be able to dowload it:
https://cid-c9f94e792da7f590.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/Sport%20Betting/Poisson.xls
Still cant download it. When i save target as a box opens saying cannot download from this site. I have never had trouble downloading anything from any site on the net and am not a computer dummy either. But for some reason iam unable to download this. Any ideas Calin?
Thanks
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Posted:
#91
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:
Still cant download it. When i save target as a box opens saying cannot download from this site. I have never had trouble downloading anything from any site on the net and am not a computer dummy either. But for some reason iam unable to download this. Any ideas Calin?
Thanks
I have no idea, but Butta01 and Elithepunk managed to downloaded so I don't know. It's in a public folder and anyone should be able to download it.
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Posted:
#92
Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:
I have no idea, but Butta01 and Elithepunk managed to downloaded so I don't know. It's in a public folder and anyone should be able to download it.
I know its crazy. The file is sitting right there,but for some reason it wont download. You dont happen to have it posted on any other file sites do you?
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Posted:
#97
Hallo, i seen that you downloaded spreedsheat in this topic https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100358503&page=4&refsite=accounts.covers.com . I know, it is 3 years ago but, have you this spreeadsheat please? Or better than in this topic?
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Posted:
#98
Quote Originally Posted by bsteeer:
Hallo, i seen that you downloaded spreedsheat in this topic https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100358503&page=4&refsite=accounts.covers.com . I know, it is 3 years ago but, have you this spreeadsheat please? Or better than in this topic?
Hallo, i seen that you downloaded spreedsheat in this topic https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100358503&page=4&refsite=accounts.covers.com . I know, it is 3 years ago but, have you this spreeadsheat please? Or better than in this topic?
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